StockSide

Taking a Long-Term Look at the Market

2006-12-02T07:54:00.000-08:00

by Martin Lukac

If you can stick with your investment strategy for the long term, chances are that you will make a profit. To do this you will need to invest without liquidating your investment, without panicking and without losing sight of the benefits of investing for the long term.

That sounds easier than it really is. Investment results cannot be predicted. When you look at the market in the short term, it can often look appealing to just sell and invest elsewhere. But you can't focus on next week, next month or next year when looking at your investments and their profitability. You have to look a little further into the future.

No one can accurately predict where the market will be next year or in ten years. What you have to look at is a broader picture. When you look at the history of the stock market, there are ups and downs. However, the market has generally moved higher and higher. Keep this in mind when the market takes a downturn. The stock market is volatile in the short run, but is fairly rewarding in the long run. You simply have to keep in mind that you are investing for the long run.

Look at your IRA. This is a long-term investment tool. For those who have 10 to 40 years until their retirement, the IRA has an enormous potential to build wealth. But it does this over the long term. When you have 30 years to invest, you have a good chance of coming out further ahead through the stock market than by investing in bonds or CDs. Even if you only have 10 years to invest, chances pretty good that in 10 years, the S&P 500 will be much higher than it is today.

In the end, the value of your IRA depends on how you choose your investments today. The key to successfully building your wealth through long-term investing in the stock market is found in having a plan. You take that plan, stick with it and remember to look at the big picture when looking at your stock investments.

Set guidelines for your investments and follow them. Don't invest or liquidate based on a hunch, gut-feeling or impulse. Ask yourself what you want out of your investments. What kind of lifestyle will you want during your retirement? How much will your child's college education cost? What are your financial hopes and dreams? Are you looking to retire early or work as long as possible?

Create a plan that includes setting aside a regular amount of money for investing. That is the key to reaching your goals, no matter how little you have. You don't have to invest a lot of money at once if you are investing for the long run. It will build and grow more than you can imagine. Even small investments can grow quite large over time.

Investing for the long term doesn't necessarily mean that you invest and forget. Yes, you can do this if you choose extremely safe stocks, but it probably still isn't a good idea. Things change over time, especially when it comes to finances and the stock market. You have to review your investments to make sure that they are still performing in a way that will get you to your goals. It is a good idea to know ahead of time how much loss you are willing to take from a stock before you sell it. Most people follow the 10% rule. Know what your out point is before you invest. Watch your stocks to make sure that they perform according to your standards.

Investing for the long run is a good investment strategy. It reduces your risk considerably. The longer you have to invest, the less your risk.

About author:
Martin Lukac http://www.MartinLukac.com, represents http://www.RateEmpire.com, an Internet consumer banking marketplace. RateEmpire.com is a destination site of personal finance, investing, taxes and mortgage rates. RateEmpire.com provides mortgage guides and financial rates and information. RateEmpire.com also operates a financial portal #1 American Financial, found at http://www.1AmericanFinancial.com

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Easily Avoidable Stock Market and Investing Mistakes

2006-11-28T19:52:00.000-08:00

by Chris Ryerson

If you are like many millions of Americans investing in the stock market sounds scary and comes with a lot of reservations. This is natural and as it should be since the stock market can be very risky. However by follow some simple steps, taking it slow and making deliberate moves you can mitigate many of the risks involved with stock market investing. This does not mean you will never lose money because you will however, by following these guidelines you can ensure that in the end you will come out profitable.

If you are just getting started with investing then one of the easist ways to get up and running and typically the safest is to get a stockbroker. Later you will want to do away with a stockbroker and save on the fees and have more control. However when starting out a stockbroker can be very useful in getting you familiar with how the stock market works and how to begin trading. It can also be very helpful to find a trusted friend that invests and use them to bounce ideas off of and discuss the process with. Once you get some basic level experience you will want to strike out on your own and go for it making your own decisions etc. However, when you first get started having advice and someone to show you the ropes can really help.

One of the worst stock moves you can make is with variable annuities using the premium of your insurance. A variable annuity is an insurance contract that allows you to invest your premium in mutual fund-like investments. This sounds good in paper, but if you look at it a little harder, you’ll find that they are bad investments in the long run for the following reason:

Some other things that you want to watch out for and be carefully when considering investing follow.

Tax cuts Ordinary investments in stocks and mutual funds qualify for low capital gains treatments, thus smaller taxes. Your gains from investing your premium, on the other hand, get taxed as income as soon as you withdraw the money.

Early withdrawal penalties Insurance plans are designed for retirement. Taking out money from your premium entails a certain amount of penalty from both the insurance company as well as the government. So if you withdraw your profits, you will be penalized.

Death benefit If your stocks are down upon your death, your beneficiaries can get as much as the investments you put in. Unfortunately, if your stocks are up, they get taxed as a regular income.

Costs Annuities with insurance features are actually more expensive than ordinary mutual funds. The more insurance features your annuity has, the more annual feels are heaped against it, which naturally eats up your profits.

Timming There are specific times as well, when to and when to not make an investment. For example times of natural calamity may drive prices of stocks down but there are no insurance these would recover to make a good profit.

As always investing in anything has some risks involved and there are times that you might lose money. The important thing is to remember the points above, start slowly and as long as you are earning money more then you are losing stay with it. It can take a lot of time to learn the ups and downs of the market.

Author`s note:
For more great information stock market investing check out Best Guides Money: Stock Market Investing. BestGuideMoney includes other money saving and investing tips as well. Check out Best Guide Money for all of your money related needs.

Published under category : Stock Trading

The 6 Best Times Of The Day To Trade A Stock

2006-11-26T07:49:00.000-08:00

by Larry Potter

1. Post-opening buying: Let's say a stock rises 5 percent or more during the opening and there's no news about it. Typically, the stock will fall off after 30 minutes of trading. Why? Market makers may be trying to open the stock at an artificially high price to sell off excess inventory they've acquired the day before. However, if the stock doesn't fall after 30 minutes of trading, it's liable to continue rising for the rest of the day.

Tactic: Buy at 1/16 above the day's high after the opening. Set a stop at 1/16 below the day's low.

2. Post-opening selling: The opposite of the above strategy. When a stock opens lower on no news, it could be that sell orders from nervous investors have piled up since the close of trading the day' before. Sometimes market makers open the stock artificially low, to draw in more panic sellers. This allows them to accumulate shares, because market makers as a rule buy on price declines and sell on price increases. After 30 minutes, the stock usually recovers in price and normal trading begins. The market makers profit by selling the inventory they've accumulated at the lower price. However, if the stock continues to drift lower after 30 minutes, chances are it'll decline more during the course of the day.

Tactic: Sell short at 1/16 below the low of the day; set a stop at 1/16 above the day's high.

3. Playing the spread: This one's really simple. Buy at 1/16 above the bid. Sell at 1/16 below the ask. The strategy works best with non-volatile stocks where the spread is at least 3/8 of a point. When successful, you make a quarter point per trade, or $250 on 1,000 shares. You can also short the spread by selling short at 1/16 below the ask and covering at 1/16 above the bid. Problem is, it's not always possible to get in and out at these levels. Market makers may easily spot what you're doing and adjust prices so they blow you out. Often day traders try this tactic several times during the day before they succeed.

4. Grinding: Another relatively simple tactic. Follow the message threads at, for instance, Silicon Investor for a particular stock. When everyone is screaming that the stock is going to make a move, jump in with the mob. Be content with an 1/8 or 1/4 point. Then get out before the rush.

5. Fading the market: With this contrarian strategy, you buy into weakness and sell into strength. That is, you buy stocks with small percentage declines relative to the market. You're hoping they'll gain when the market reverses. Hold off buying until the stock trades above its opening. Reason: Previous buyers of the stock will sell to prevent loss, thus driving the price down in the short term.

6. Shop the final hour: Stocks often ease off their highs of the day during the last hour of trading. Why? Because day traders and market makers seek to exit their positions and lock in profits. A price downturn often occurs during the last hour of trading as many seek to exit their positions. This downward momentum can create some lucrative short-selling opportunities.

About author:
Larry Potter is a recognized authority on the subject of trading. For a FREE report on HOW TO TRADE FAST and a 2-week trial to Stocks2Watch®, visit: http://clik.to/stocks2watch and http://commodities-business.blogspot.com

Published under category : Stock Trading Tips

Stop Orders In Your Stock Market Trading

2006-11-21T02:09:00.000-08:00

by Dave Wooding

So we are clear, a stop order is an order that becomes active once a certain price is exceeded. A buy stop order is an order to buy once price exceeds a certain price. Until the price is exceeded to the upside, the order is not active. The opposite applies for a sell stop order. Sell stop orders become active once a price is exceeded to the downside.

There is an important point to consider, one I was not aware of until a stop order of mine was executed. Depending on your broker, “price” can indicate either a transaction that has occurred or simply that the bid or ask occurred at that price level.

How did I figure out this distinction? For a buy stop order I had in, I reviewed the time / sales report for a stock I bought using a buy stop order without a limit. I noticed that my order was the first transaction at that price – which by the way, turned out to be the high price for the day. My understanding at the time was that a stop order does not become active until another transaction occurs at that price.

Not true according to my broker. Their explanation of why my order was filled was that the asking price tripped the buy stop level I had set. Once that occurred, my order automatically became a market order to buy. Fortunately for me, the trade ending up being a winner. The lesson was learned, make sure you understand how orders work, in particular stop orders.

A way to enter a stock as it starts to move in the anticipated direction is to use a stop order with a limit. For example, if you are interested in buying a stock but you want to wait until the stock “proves” that it is moving higher, you can place an order to buy at a price higher than the current market price and specify the maximum price you are willing to pay. Assume that the current price is $45.51 and you are interested in purchasing this stock if it trades above yesterday’s high of $46.14. You could place a day order to buy 1000 shares on a stop at $46.15 with a limit of $46.21.

If your method of trading uses previous highs and lows as entry points, then using a stop limit order like the one described allows you to place an order when the market opens and not have to watch the screen all day. Additionally, if your stop order becomes a market order to buy, then you have a limit to what you are willing to pay. The $0.05 difference between the stop price and the limit price gives you a little “wiggle” room for getting a fill.

Stop orders can be used to close profitable positions without giving back much of the profits. If you are in a profitable long position, then using a trailing stop below the previous day’s low or the three day low can keep in you a profitable position.

Finally, a stop order can be your best protection from catastrophic losses. It is not a bad idea to place a stop order to exit a position once you enter a stock position. If you are a buyer of a stock, then placing a sell stop order either a certain percentage or below a significant low, can minimize your losses.

Use stop orders in your trading to minimize losses and protect profits. Contact your broker for clarification on the types of stop orders they allow.

Article Source: EzineArticles.com/?expert=Dave_Wooding

Published under category : Stock Trading

Stock Trading Personality - What is yours?

2006-10-02T15:58:00.000-07:00

by Eddy K

Before we put any money into the stock trading, we need to define our stock trading personality.

1) The first step in this process is to determine whether we are traders or investors. When you know your trading personality, you will know type of stock trading plan and strategies to employ.

Investors adopt a "buy and hold" philosophy. They hold positions for a long period of time. This can be weeks, months, or even years. Traders are different. They want to make money yesterday! Traders hold positions for days or weeks and in some cases for just a few hours.

Investors and traders use many of the same tools and techniques, but they adapt them to their stock trading personality and timeframe. The timeframe used is sometimes chosen for us.

For example, if your profession or job does not allow you to monitor the market during the day, it will be very difficult to function as a trader, even though your personality may pre-dispose you to active stock trading.

Investors choose solid quality stocks because they will hold their positions for longer periods. They use fundamental analysis to select stocks that have strong ratings and a promising long-term outlook. Investors are not concerned with the daily price fluctuation because they know that they own fundamentally strong companies that in the long run should eventually go up in price.

2) Traders on the other hand can chose a style that matches their own personalities and risk tolerance. A day-trader is one who is in and out of a stock in one day and never carries a position overnight. Relatively few traders can function in this stressful environment for very long. Most traders fall into the categories of swing, momentum, or position stock trading.

This individual usually does their stock trading from a few days to a few weeks, depending upon the market. They let the prices determine entrances and exits. The fundamentals are not as important to a trader as they are to an investor; price movement takes precedence.

Both the traders and investors can make good use of technical analysis to determine the timing of their entries into the market, as well as accurate exits. However, precise entries and exits are of more importance to traders than to investors.

Both investors and traders should monitor their positions on a daily basis. Neither need spend more than thirty minutes each day tracking and evaluating their portfolio.

Traders who decide to do stock trading full-time to make their living must decide whether they are willing to make the time commitment to follow the market intra-day. This does not mean that they are glued to the computer following every stock tick. However, there are decisions that often must be made during the course of the market day that will affect their positions. The fact that we follow the market on an intra-day basis does not mean that we are day traders.

Most traders are also investors, although the reverse is not necessarily true. Even traders who normally hold positions in their trading accounts for a few days at a time typically also manage their retirement funds in an IRA or other retirement plan. These accounts are normally not actively traded, so you might say that those of us who have both types of accounts have a "split personality." This is not a bad thing; both disciplines have much to offer.

The investor who does no active stock trading might do well to learn the disciplines of active stock trading, particularly in the area of technical analysis. The time may come when their investments will grow large enough that they can choose to quit their day job and trade full-time. The ability to monitor the market during the day may allow them to reap the benefits of active stock trading, provided their personality allows for it.

Whether you consider yourself a trader or an investor, make sure that you learn well how to make good entries and exits. Discipline is very important to stock trading. It does no good if you buy the right stock after it has made its run, and sell it to close at the same price.

The other discipline that applies to both traders and investors is proper money management. It is impossible to overemphasize the importance of the use of stop loss orders. It is also vital to know your targeted exit point before you enter any trade.

Investor or trader - which is better? Whichever fits your personality, risk tolerance and life style. Don't let anyone tell you that you should be one or the other. Examine yourself, and do what lets you sleep well every night.

The best thing is to have a proper and yet effective strategy to trade stocks more successfully before embarking it as a stock trading career. One of the best online course I have come across is The Way To Trade which you can get by clicking here.

Remember, pursuing a career in stock trading is like running a marathon, slow and steady. A lot of stamina and enthusiasm is needed to sustain you. More importantly, you must enjoy the process and journey of success! If you are not getting the results you are getting in stock trading be sure to check some course.

About author:
Eddy owns a few blogs on option trading and online stock trading and stock trading.

Published under category : Stock Trading Psychology

Taking Risks in Stock Market Trading

2006-09-01T11:28:00.000-07:00

by Amelie Mag

One general asserted truth is that profit is a goal for many of the men and women who populate this planet. Profit is the more desirable in the case of those who actually invest money because they want to extract even more financial benefits out of these particular investments. One popular way of giving a fertile employment to your money is making them circulate through stock market trading. Share owners can sell, hold their shares or even buy some more, if a series of rules (based either on well-established commonsense practices or on mere intuition) tell them the moment is just ripe for this or that strategy.

As a matter of fact, strategy is one of the terms often heard of in stock market trading. But can anyone talk about a strategy that never failed in this area? This is a frequently raised question, since it is widely acknowledged that the stock market can be tricky. The stock market may easily lead to a downfall in stock market trading. This process takes place, obviously, to the disadvantage of the investor. However, stock market trading doesn't always end with a loss. Should loss be a certainty, people would no longer invest in the stock market.

Whether we are talking about time-honored stock market trading ? taking place within the 'real' here and now, on the floors of stock exchange rooms ? or about online stock market trading one of the regularly advised strategies is to stick to the trend. Online stock market trading has acquired, in its turn, a value over the past ten years so it can be taken into consideration also. Every stock market undergoes certain (longer) intervals of development manifest in the evolution of stock price. Terms like bull market or bear market are recurrent in stock market trading reflecting either the continuously rising stock prices or the reverse situation. Both online stock market trading as well as its longer-established relative go hand in hand with the progress of the national economy. One example at hand is provided by the extent of a bullish market during the 1990s, determined by the robust national economy of the USA ? a genuine initiator of investment confidence. When the situation changed, at the beginning of the year 2000, the market turned bearish and stock prices began falling. In both situations, the advised approach was not to go against the tendency of the market.

Circumstances have long proven it is wise to be consistent with the general trend. Indeed, there is 'fashion' within stock market trading as well. And if you don't want to be outdated ? being outmoded in stock market trading may have damaging consequences ? you go with the flow. Nevertheless, when someone trustworthy or when some reliable conditions offer you a 'hot' suggestion, you may want to act in its direction. Nonetheless, caution, shrewdness and wisdom must be in your proximal reach. This means that you are not to instantly trust any 'good old pal' who, out of good-will, provides you with a tip. You must be able to make your own research targeting the tip you received or else request the services of a stockbroker.

The latter may turn out to be a wise stratagem. Stockbrokers, even in online stock market trading, are generally certified and skilled authorities whom you can easily employ for you to take full advantage of your capital investing. Notice however that their expertise is not available free of charge. There is nothing 'on the house' in stock market trading. Basically, brokers get involved in stock market trading for you, making use of their fuller comprehension of the stock market status quo so as to trigger gains that will proceed to your pocket or to some further investment. Should the commission basis on which the relationship between you and your broker is built (as a general rule) not be appropriate for you, there are other possibilities as well. In online stock market trading it is less costly to supervise your own deals.

Additionally, in online stock market trading, the useful, instructive material you may need is obtainable day-and-night. Moreover, in case you take particular content in looking into your private stocks, you cannot find a richer source of information than the Internet. Online stock market trading allows you to research websites designed by investment companies so the client and the virtual investor can be aware of previous operations. By accessing reports and descriptions offered even by the companies themselves, one may even notice the excellent performance of key institutions. Even more, online stock market trading sites offer the investor support in the shape of online stock market trading tools, services and instruments that allow the investor to place an order beforehand and, should the client not be present at the moment when the market reaches the condition opted for by him or her, enter the order automatically.

Certainly, both online stock market trading and its 'next of kin' have their own advantages. Whereas online stock market trading provides more accessible assistance for dealing with stocks, what was the initial, fundamental stock market trading still goes on. Even if not following a time schedule as generous as that of online services, the traditional ways do not disappear. However, they both involve taking risks which is why prudence is the most often heard of strategy. In other words, it's better to "hold for a while the bird in the hand than quickly grab two in the bush".

Author`s note:
For all those interested in traditional Stock Market Trading or in Online Stock Market Trading, visiting these web resources and finding out more on the subject is the right thing to do. It's not wise to risk investments without an attempt to inform yourselves first.

Published under category : Trading Risk & Money Management

What does the “M” in CANSLIM stand for?

2006-08-28T09:35:00.000-07:00

by Chris Perruna

According to William O’Neil, it represents the market and direction it is heading in. Over the past several months, you have listened to me write about the “M” in CANSLIM almost every single week. Some of you have wondered why I put so much emphasis on this one letter in the CANSLIM acronym. It is very important to understand and recognize what type of market you are in before you ever make a stock purchase or place a large position. If you don’t know if the current market is a bear, a bull or if it is trading sideways, how can you realistically make money and set goals based on a blind strategy. Markets trade in trends and 75% of all listed stocks will follow the general direction of the major indices which include the NASDAQ, the DOW and the S&P 500. If the market health is poor and a bear market has developed but you don’t know about it because you haven’t assessed the health of the “M”, you may lose money by placing a long position in a stock. The stock you buy may have a nice chart pattern and excellent fundamentals but it may come under pressure due to the general market weakness and sector weakness. The same can be said in a bull market: a stock that is sub-par may perform strongly and give the investor solid gains due to sector strength and overall market strength. Study the market and you will see that stocks move in groups and most of the stocks in a strong industry will move in tandem (up). The same holds true for weak markets; if you own a stock in an industry that is starting to churn or breakdown, it may be wise to pull in a potion of you position to lock in gains. More times than not, the strongest stock in an industry group must conform and move in the direction of the others. A perfect example can be the home builders, they have moved in tandem for the past five years. If you look at their weekly charts for the past several years, you will see that they all have the same patterns but with different numbers.

I trade based on two major criteria: a strong up-trending market (a bull market) or a market that has reversed to breakout and follow-through telling us that the “M” in CANSLIM is gaining strength.

Second, I use the daily new high and new low ratio (NH-NL) to compliment the overall strength that the market is presenting. The price and volume alone can fake out many investors and lead them down the path of faulty investing. In order for the market to be strong, the NH-NL ratio must compliment the general outlook and present us with at least 500 new highs per day on a consistent basis. When both the NH-NL ratio and the “M” in CANSLIM are strong, we can justify placing larger positions and labeling the market as healthy. William O’Neil, the founder of Investor’s Business Daily, states that many of the best stocks over the past 50 years have made their advances when the overall market was strong, not weak. The NH-NL ratio is always comprised of the strongest stocks in the current market and we know that these individual leaders are responsible for the bulls and the bears.

How can an investor monitor the market action to tell if it is weak or strong?

As mentioned above, the first thing to look for is a breakout of one or more of the major indices with volume greater than average. Next, I look for the daily new high/new low ratio (NH-NL) to be entering new high territory and reaching new highs of 500-1,000+ stocks per day. In 2005, we have not had one day exceed 1,000 new highs to date (October 22, 2005 – almost 10 complete months of trading). In 2003, we had several instances when this number was reached multiple times in one single week. In 2003 we were in an obvious bull market and in 2005 we are in an obvious sideways market. On a side note: Sideways markets are typically tougher to trade than a market that is trending in one direction, whether it is up or down. Sideways markets whipsaw investors up and down and typically cause frustration that leads them to make poor decisions. It may be wiser to sit in cash during an extended sideways market because you will never know if the market will be up or down the next day. In bull markets, stocks move higher and in bear markets they move lower and a trend can be targeted but sideways markets provide us with many head fakes!

During bear markets, the strongest stocks that propel the market back to the bull side will typical have the strongest relative strength ratings when everything is weak and investor confidence is low. These stocks will become the new leaders and will typically emerge from a few specific industry groups that are gaining strength. When the market reversal happens, the first 10-15 weeks will be crucial as the biggest winners will breakout during this time. It is not to say that additional winners can’t breakout after the first 15 weeks of a new up-trend but the odds decrease and your risk rises. When the follow-through occurs in the market, you must see an increase in market volume from the previous day and substantial price advances that equal or exceed 1%-2% for the NASDAQ, DOW or S&P 500. When we see two or more of the indices follow-through on the same day, it increases the validity of the new up-trend.

Markets typically top after a prolonged period of higher highs and the first sign of a possible climax run or topping of the NH-NL ratio. If the market starts to make new highs on large volume but it is not moving as high as it was during the entire length of the up-trend, it may be topping. If price progress is poor and the volume continues to increase, the market may be churning or topping. I will immediately turn to the NH-NL ratio to gage the strength of the individual leaders to give me a glace at the broad market strength. One of the biggest black eyes that an investor can receive is during the topping of a long bull market where they made extensive gains and have emotions that are telling them they are genius. If an investor ignores the “M” in CANSLIM and holds their winners while the market tops and then starts to decline, their gains will be erased quicker than they were accumulated and their egos will be shot. When red flags appear, such as moving average violations, support levels sliced and the decline of the NH-NL ratio, it is time to lock in profits and move to cash until things settle and you can figure out what is happening.

Never listen to personal opinions on the market offered by talking heads because they are usually wrong or don’t understand the key factors that decide if the market is going up or down. It is most important to understand the exact condition and health of the market today rather than trying to predict where it will be in 6-12 months. Is it currently up-trending, moving sideways or down-trending? When you understand this last question, your trading results will improve dramatically. You could be the best stock selector in the world but that doesn’t mean anything if you buy and sell during the wrong time because you don’t study or understand the “M” in CANSLIM. Always know the exact direction, health and conditions of the “M” in CANSLIM before you ever put on a trade.

Remember, you could be right in every aspect of your stock analysis but if you are wrong about the direction of the market, you will most likely lose money.

About author:
Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We offer an extended no obligation monthly trial period starting immediately with two free weeks. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Earning Money Through Online Trading Stock

2006-08-20T16:08:00.000-07:00

by Amelie Mag

The first thing you need to know when you decide to trade shares by joining an online trading of stocks system is to visit the websites of the best online trading brokers available. These companies offer a wide variety of market flow previsions and developments in the online trading of stock futures. When you decide to open an account, you must know that this is generally free of charge, but you have to pay every time you engage in a stock or security bonds transaction.

After completing this process, you must choose between several available broker-services specialised in online trading. The cheapest solution to your problem is an execution broker. This type of online trading service provides only an electronic transaction option consisting in buying or selling shares or stocks, without any stock futures prevision, counselling or any other advisory support in finding realistic market trends.

Like all the participants in the stock exchange, you can only decide between three types of operations. The first one is buying, while the others are selling and holding. The single time when you require a broker is when you decide to buy or sell. You don't need the assistance of an online trading broker to hold your personal stocks or already established stock futures.

The most important advantage in having an online trading account is the enhanced speed with which you can either buy or sell stocks. Of course, you'll have a limited period of time to transact your stocks or stock futures, but once you get accustomed to the online trading market, you can start earning big money.

Obviously, this is normally easier said than done! To become an ace in the online trading of stocks and in the online trading of stock futures you must frequently analyze (usually daily) the prices' evolution caused by the development in the leverage balance between demand and offer. This market leverage is widely generated by the market-makers or as, they're also known, "big fish". The market-makers are powerful companies that operate on the stock market and set the value for a specific stocks-class (for instance coffee). One of their main goals is to gain control and implicit wealth by speculating in online trading of stock futures. This way, they can raise their income by using the variation leverage of the stock market value in the online trading of stocks system.

The average stock holders and participants both in online trading of stocks and in online trading of stock futures don't normally have any chance in front of these market giants. Of course, this is not the case for you! Now, there is help available for you on the Internet. You can choose among many free online trading services provided by PhD specialists in the evolution of the stock market.

The online trading of stocks has become an extremely appreciated occupation for many "nine to five" working class citizens who have rapidly transformed into expert stock holders. To add more points, the even more complex online trading of stock futures has generated even more "over the night" millionaires.

Nowadays, online trading has become one of the few domains in which you can start with little, and quickly earn a fortune. This is a real opportunity available for almost anyone! You only have to think of a realistic plan in buying or selling shares for the online trading of stocks or for the online trading of stock futures. It's a great chance you should not miss.

Author`s note:
Interested in making money? Then Online Trading of Stocks and Online Trading of Stock Futures is the best way to go. Go ahead, find out more about them!

Published under category : Online Stock Trading

The Curve Drawdown - A Sensitive Aspect of Stock Trading

2006-08-16T16:59:00.000-07:00

by Ispas Marin

If you are a new player on the stock market, you should know that things aren't always nice and shiny when it comes to stock trading. There are downsides and upsides as in any other trading or investing process and you have to be prepared to cope with the negative aspects. The drawdown is the worse thing a stock trader may experience along the years. You should know that a peak in a share's price is always followed by a going down to the bottom period. But don't panic, this negative impact is also followed by an ascending trend, so your shares will be going up again.

Experienced systems traders are well aware of this drawdown trend; the 'rookies' (new traders) are those who panic and start selling their shares. This drawdown period represents an important percentage of the stock's profit evaluation process.

This drawdown curve is representing a test for the 'buy, hold and hope' rule that investors should follow on the long term. What does this mean? Well, inexperienced stock traders chose to sell their shares when their price is going down, instead of realising that this price drop is only a natural thing to happen. This kind of traders is losing money as the price is lower than the one they have paid for the shares. This is the reason why you should try not to panic and to commit yourself to holding to your shares. Keep in mind that this price drop is a normal phenomenon on the stock market.

Experienced traders have a strong commitment when it comes to a drawdown. They know that the best thing to do when a drawdown occurs is to follow all trade recommendations. Anyone who is involved in stock trading should be emotionally and financially prepared to deal with this kind of negative situations. Experienced traders know that the worst thing to do is to sell your shares just after a drawdown as the price will definitely go up.

Therefore, if you plan to get involved in the stock trading process, be prepared to face its downsides too. And keep in mind that any investing process is a matter of instinct, trading method, good information and luck.

Author`s note:
For a Stock Trading system and investment strategy that is simple and easy to follow just visit www.mytradingsystem.net Portfolio management strategies that work in all types of stock market.

Published under category : Stock Trading

Technical analysis, what is it and why is it important to me?

2006-08-02T15:33:00.000-07:00

by Jim Banks

I had never heard of technical analysis until I tried my hand at futures trading. Like most new traders my plan was to buy low and sell high, which is still the best way to buy and sell stocks. The problems start when we try and figure out what is low and what is high, that's where technical analysis comes in.

There are basically two ways to analyze a stock, one way is fundamental analysis. This type of analysis is conducted by analyzing a company's financial condition, are they profitable, are their products in demand, or how many sales have they made. This is a very simplistic view and will be explored in another article.

The second way to analyze a stock is by technical analysis. This widely used approach employs charts depicting price charts (daily or weekly), and trading volumes. Each price chart will show the opening price, the daily range and the closing price of a particular stock. Pure Technicians do not involve themselves with fundamental analysis. Technical analysis uses chart patterns to forecast future price movements. Fundamentalists also can use technical charts to determine entry and exit points where stocks are extended or have retraced a big price move and should commence a new up-leg.

Investment time periods vary from the day (day trading), to short term, to intermediate, to long term. Short term normally implies days to weeks, intermediate implies weeks to months, while long term means months to years.

Moving Averages suggest the smooth trends in the stock most often used by technical investors based on time horizon. First, let's define trendlines. An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. An up-trend is drawn underneath the beginning low and the lowest low of an up-move. A downtrend is a series of lower highs and lower lows. A downtrend line is drawn from the initial high to next highest high of the downtrend.

Now, let's define support and resistance. Support is an area of prior purchases which acts as a source of demand for the stock on the way down. Resistance is an overhead source of supply of stock to sell triggered by an area of prior purchases. Unsophisticated investors will not sell their losers, they will wait until the price returns to their entry level so that they can end the pain by selling at a breakeven. Likewise unsophisticated investors who at a lower level and saw the stock run up significantly only to return to their purchase are likely to buy at their prior entry level.

To keep it in its simplest form technical analysis uses Trends, Moving Averages, Support and Resistance levels to enter a trade as well as exit a trade. These technical indicators can be very useful in developing a trading system, that being said I want to issue a word of caution, I've been trading in one shape or form for the last 15 years and still learn every day.

My advice to you is read, study, learn then practice. There are many fine books out there on Technical Analysis, don't be afraid to buy one or two and learn as much as you can from them. A good book may cost you $50?.A bad trade $500.

About author: Jim Banks has over 15 years investing experience investing in everything from real estate to commodity futures and is a frequent contributor to www.profit-mountain.com

Published under category : Stock Technical Analysis

Using Bollinger Bands for Trading Large Cap Stocks

2006-07-30T14:32:00.000-07:00

by CT Larsen

The Bollinger Band is the closest thing to 'The Holy Grail' of technical analysis there is. Especially for large cap stock traders, it just cannot be beat for analyzing charts. Having said that however, there is probably no other technical indicator misused or misunderstood as often as the Bolinger Band (BB). This article is to provide the technical analyst with the basics needed to interpret the many faces of the BB.

Before we begin, let me explain the type of trading done at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com. We trade large cap stocks, we generally hold stocks for less than two months, and make about 3-5% on an average trade. Done over and over again throughout the year, we have made over 50% annual returns for the last three years.

Now lets discuss what the Bollinger Band (BB) is. In its standard usage, the BB is derived from taking the 20 day moving average of the stock price. And then adding and subtracting two standard deviations of that stock price and placing a line above the moving average and below the moving average. Now without having to re-visit my statistics classes of some 25 years ago, I will try to clarify a standard deviation. It is simply a measurement of how far the price has deviated above or below the moving average. A stock going through a particularly volatile patch, will see its BB's expand, and a stock going through a calm period, will see them contract.

BB's are available on most charting software. Yahoo has them on their technical analysis charts, as do most other web sites that are dedicated to technical analysis. If you are unfamiliar with them I urge you to right now, go experiment with them, using a few stocks and market indicators like the Dow, or Nasdaq.

If you are familiar with technical analysis, and use indicators such as the RSI or stochastic. You know one of the unique things about the BB's is they are placed right on the stock charts. They are viewed in the context of the actual price movements. In fact, for me, they define the stock chart. Stock charts tell me way more about future movement with the BB placed on them. I rarely do any analysis without them, except for perhaps an initial viewing of a stock chart I am considering for watch list placement. BB's therefore do not give you a number, like most other indicators, they don't tell you an overbought or oversold condition. They just provide a visual, a story, of where a stock has been. Therefor you have to interpret.

But what can be learned is crucial, to guessing what will happen next. BB's can help you predict price movements, like no other tool. The trick is, to know what to look for. In other articles I will present what I require a price pattern to look like before I even consider it. But for this article, realize that price patterns need to be structured, calm, heading up, down or flat. But they can't be erratic. Erratic price patterns are never worth trading..

If the upper band and the lower band are not moving in unison then the pattern is erratic. There is one exception to this rule, and that is at the beginning of a powerful up or down move. Remember, the bands tell you where the price will fall in relative to the 20 day moving average. Well, if a powerful move is underway, then the price is moving away from the average, and the bands expand. Once the bands expand it is too late to trade that move, but the stock is worth watching, one can climb on board on the next pull back.

But trading the way we do on our blog ,at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com, that has produced greater than 50% return three years running, we like the bands to move in unison. That shows predictability. And predictability is crucial in getting large returns. It is not the home run we are looking for, just hit after hit after hit. Load the bases repeatedly and you generate runs. OK enough baseball analogy. Here is an example, take the chart HIG. With BB's in place look at the chart in early June 2005. It is just after the powerful upward move, that occurred in May. First notice in May how the BBs expanded, as the stock shot straight up. Then in June the bands moved in unison. Around mid June the stock touched its 20 day moving average, then its formation started to 'bowl' as it moved up. Buy it here. Once it hits a 5% profit move up a sliding stop, and ride the price up. Several things can be learned form this chart. The single most bullish pattern, is a stock that has small trading day ranges, and hugs the upper band. It rides it up between the 20 day average, and the top band. The bands are at an upward angle, that is not too steep. And everything moves in unison, both bands, the moving average, and most importantly for profits, the price.

If one should know anything about the stock market, it is this. It is ruled by emotions. Emotions are like springs, they stretch and contract, both for only so long. BB's measure this like no other indicator. A stock, especially widely traded large caps, with all the fundamental research in the world already done, will only lie dormant for so long, and then they will move. The move after such dormant periods will almost always be in the direction of the overall trend. If a stock is above it's 200 day moving average then it is in an uptrend, and the next move will likely be up as well.

Look at the chart CIT, with the BBs of course. See how in June 2005, the BB's contract late in the month. While the price touches the lower BB. See how the stock is above the 200 day moving average. And more importantly the slope of the 200 day moving average is upward. The stock clearly wants to move up. The bands are ridiculously close together. Buy right here, an oversold stock, moving upward, with narrow bands. What happens next is the bands expand, I call it fish lips, I love fish lips. This stock could have been bought in June sold at exhaustion as the bands had expanded with an upper band touch. And then re-purchased in July and done again. While fish lips provide remarkable entry signals, they generally aren't held as long as the upward unison movement of HIG mentioned above.

There you have the two most crucial lessons in Bollinger Bands. The HIG pattern I call riding the wave, and the CIT pattern I call fish lips. Riding the wave can usually be done longer up to two months, using stops along the way, one doesn't even really need to watch it, of course one can as they ca-ching in one those safe profits. The other pattern is fish lips, they are usually held for less than a month, and are exited upon upper band touches, or mare exactly retreats from upper band touches. (When the price touches the upper band and then retreats). Fish lips that re formed out of a flat pattern can often turn into 'riding the wave,' and then are held longer.

About author:
CT Larsen has been trading stocks since 1990. Now trading large cap stocks exclusively. He has recorded three straight years of greater than 50% annual returns. You can read his blog at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com

How to Add Shares to a Profitable Position

2006-07-18T16:16:00.000-07:00

by Chris Perruna

Say you have a stock in your portfolio that is up 30% and it forms a base or consolidates to a moving average, and you want to add to this position. How would you go about doing this?

There are a few ways that I have approached this situation. Some of you may agree and some of you may disagree with the way I pyramid or scale my positions when they are in confirmed up-trends after my original entry. When the market is weak and the NH-NL ratio is not confirming a bull market such as 2005 and 2006, I am cautious when I enter a position making a new high. Hypothetically speaking, I will use a $100,000 portfolio and round numbers to keep the examples simple although the CBG position explained in detail is based on a true position.

If I start to research a stock and feel it will travel from $60 to $100, I will determine the maximum position I can assume from a simple position sizing calculation. If I determine I can handle an 8% drop, I am allowed to purchase 208 shares at $60 per share (I’ll typically round it off to 200 shares in this situation). My position size will be $12,500 with a maximum drawdown risk of $1,000 or 1% of my entire portfolio. My stop will be located at $55.20 or slightly beneath a specific support area that is within 8% of my purchase price. If the stock is breaking out of a specific pattern such as a cup with handle, I will buy half my position at the time of breakout and the other half after the trend is confirmed several days later.

If the stock is in a solid up-trend and not in a recognizable pattern, I will typically purchase 2/3rd of the position when I see the opportunity and then follow up with the remaining 1/3rd of the position at the time of the next pullback (only after the stock reaches a minimum gain of 25%).

Other times, when the market is acting healthy and the NH-NL ratio is strong, I will initiate the entire position based on my original 1% position sizing model and reassess the situation at a later date. Using a recent example, I added shares to CBG when it consolidated in the $40’s and then readjusted my position sizing model to 1.5% (the math can become tricky at this point since the price has changed and my portfolio value is different). I have never gotten into this much detail in a simple blog post but I guess now is better than ever. This method is my own so you will not find it anywhere else and it may or may not appeal to everyone.

The following is a true example using actual stock prices but the portfolio size has been altered to keep the calculations simple and to keep my own activity discreet.

When I first purchased CBG, I took on the entire 1% portfolio risk and wasn’t sure if I would ever add shares in the future (this wasn’t my concern at the time). I liked the stock and thought the 15 week pattern that preceded my buy was picture perfect (especially since the correction was due after the prior up-trend from the IPO date). I placed a market order on June 1, 2005 at $38.97 for the entire risk amount of 1%. The stock was already under coverage on the MSW Index since May 21, 2005 at $37.20 but I was looking for a break above $39. I used the calculation of $39 which gave me the purchasing power of $12,500 or 321 shares (my order was filled for 320 shares at $38.97 = $12,470). After I placed the position, the stock immediately reversed but I stayed put as it didn’t violate any sell signals and then watched as it quickly advanced into the $40 range and approached $50. The stock consolidated over the next three months as I held the position and started to cover it more heavily on the MSW Index with a new purchase price of $50. The resistance line was touched several times so I decided that I was going to add shares if the stock broke-out above $50 with confirming volume.

As it turns out, I did add shares when the stock started to form the obvious consolidation during the fall of 2005. I added shares on November 2, 2005 at $52.68 (a little higher than I wanted but it was an extremely powerful move that day). The stock hesitated slightly over the next several days but never violated the new support line of $50. Within six weeks the stock moved towards $60 per share and I felt very comfortable. So, how many shares did I buy and how did I determine the size of my additional position? When pyramiding up, I have always been taught by my father to take on a smaller position than the original purchase. In this case, my portfolio had grown by about 10% since the summer so I decided that I could take on another 0.5% risk in CBG (a total risk of 1.5% - my maximum risk in any one stock caps at 2% of my entire portfolio). When running the new calculation, I had a portfolio size of $110,000 (hypothetical value) with a 1.5% risk factor or $1,650 risk on the entire position.

I used a price of $50 with a risk factor of 0.5% (half of 1%) with a stop of 8% (typical for my calculations) which gave me the purchasing power of $6,875 or 138 shares. I bought an additional 130 shares and added them to my original position of 320 shares for a total of 450 shares and a total cost of $19,318.80 (minus all fees, etc…). Now, take a look at how this works (it doesn’t work perfectly every time but this time I kept the numbers round): Using the position sizing calculator; plug in a portfolio value of $110,000, a risk of 1.5%, stop loss of 8% and an average cost basis of $45.83 (($38.97+$52.68)/2). What do you get? Amazing: a position size of $20,625 or 450 shares. I currently hold 450 shares with a dollar value slightly lower ($19,318.80) than the maximum calculation in this equation.

The support line is $50 but the stock went on to maintain the 50-day moving average as the true support line heading into 2006. I have not sold one share in this company as I approach one year of holding the stock from the original date of purchase. I will not base my sell on anything but my stop which currently resides slightly below the 50-day moving average. I have a tremendous gain in this stock and I owe it to two things: CANSLIM for finding the actual stock (strong earnings and a recognizable pattern setup) and position sizing for giving me the right amount of shares to purchase. By using the moving average and a retracement stop calculation, I know the exact location to take my profit. Also note that I will most likely scale out of the position if it starts to consolidate in a new range. This is a topic for another day! I always start with a 1% risk factor but will raise my risk factor to 1.5% or even 2% in rare situations when things are working out and I am placing good money after a profitable trade. Again, this is my own personal method so I advise that each individual use what works best for their own portfolio and test several scenarios.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com Market Talk with Piranha

Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We offer an extended no obligation monthly trial period starting immediately with two free weeks. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Published under category : Stock Trading

Benefits of Electronic OTCBB Stock Trading

2006-07-06T16:10:00.000-07:00

by Praveen Ortec

Although today almost all stock market trades are done electronically with advanced software platforms, Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) stocks are traded either directly or by call in. These processes take much time and causes physical/mental stresses compared to online stock trading. But today some companies, like nobletrading.com began to introduce online/electronic OTCBB stock trading services on specialized direct access trading software platforms. This service is becoming increasingly popular.

The online OTCBB stock trading service enable all OTCBB traders to buy and sell like an online stock market trader. The major benefits of electronic OTCBB stock trading include minimum expenditure of time and energy, the ability to trade stocks without broker intervention, real time news and order placement, time sales, historical and intraday stock charting, high speed order execution, and the access to major OTCBB markets such as Knight, NITE, DOMS, Finance 500, SBSH, VERT, Citigroup, FANC, ARCA etc.

Online OTCBB stock trading also holds many other advantages than traditional call in trading style. Electronic OTCBB stock trading simple and any individual want to trade OTCBB stocks can make use of it without any training. One can trade from anywhere the world with a suitable platform selected and customized by him or her. The trading software platforms offered by online OTCBB brokers are either their stock trading software or a modified form of it, so there is no question of the standard of software. There are both web based free systems or direct access customizable systems and the choice is yours.

Some online brokerage firms like nobletrading.com, allows you to trade stocks markets, options, futures and pink sheet securities from your OTCBB trading account and software. Some offer flat fees for unlimited number stocks per trade, live customer support and the ability to interfere with major market makers. That is why this new service is most attractive for those investors trading highly active sub penny securities.

But currently there are only one or two online brokerage firms who offer this service. Being a riskier trading industry, most brokers are turning their face off from this service. We can hope that in future more competitors will evolve and more affordable trading plans will be established.

Source: www.articlealley.com

Published under category : Stock Trading

Other Stock Trading Methods

2006-07-02T11:38:00.000-07:00

by Mark Crisp

Elliot Wave: What is it?

Elliot Wave is a way of defining the market action in a five wave formation. A very simple explanation. It basically says mass psychology is predictable in a liquid market by a five wave cycle. An accumulation wave. A correction. A much bigger wave. A correction again. Then the final "speculative" wave. Where the public jumps in. This is the final wave and the the next correction is not correction as such but the end of the market cycle.

A picture is worth a thousand words. See the chart of the NASDAQ during the great "bear" of 2001 to 2003

So, looking at the above chart Elliot Wave does seem to hold some credibility. It's is clear the great market crash of 2001 to 2003 did move in an almost perfectly formed five wave cycle. Three waves down. Leg three being the biggest and leg five being the final one. All seems well.

This is what I want to say about Elliot Wave. In a "nutshell" it does seem to have some substance. Look at some monthly bar charts of a liquid market (where there is massive public participation) and you will be able to see some great five wave formations. Great. That's about all the interest I have in Elliot Wave. There is absolutely nothing you can trade off. It's not quantifiable. Sometimes you will see Elliot Wave formations, most of the time you will not. And then it gets worse.

Ask twenty Elliot Wave enthusiasts what they see in the same chart and I'll guarantee you will get twenty different answers. How can you trade of something so subjective? Why should a market move up in three waves? where's the common sense about this method? I do not see it.

And when an E.W. formation goes wrong do they say "oh sorry I am wrong. cut your losses and get out"? No. They they bring in extra rules about a correction wave within the formation and pile more and more B*S already onto a sea of B*S and non-sense.

I used to subscribe to an E.W newsletter. It was really interesting to listen to. this market was in this wave and would go here.. blah,blah,blah.... I didn't make any money from their recommendations. Lost a lot.

Verdict:

Something that might hold some academic interest if this is what "bakes your potatoes" but beyond the definition about liquid markets moving in five waves... I wouldn't delve any deeper into this. I honestly do not believe you can trade from this "theory"

Rating

2 / 10

W.D Gann: What is it?

This isn't a what but a who. WD Gann was a famous trader who made millions, billions way back at the turn of the century by predicting future stock market trends by using the superb Gann Angle System. Just think for a few hundred dollars many vendors are willing to let you find the "Gann Secrets" and help you make millions in the stock market. Drop everything.. we have found the Holy Grail of stock trading.

Back to reality. Gann ..... do your-self a favor and do not even waste your time in this area. For one it is a method that tries to "predict" the future. ANY method that does this, in my eyes, should not even be considered. But here are some shocking facts about the so called brillaint WD Gann and his amazing method.

The Gann method is about measuring slope of trends to predict reversals in those trends. It's fancy. It can look great on "cherry picked" past charts. But predict the future.... it can not do!

You must read William Gallacher's book: "Winner Takes All", It is some time since I read it and do not have a copy here right now but I always remember the section on the Gann Method. His son was interviewed for a position at a bank and the conversation of his father (the Great W.D. Gann) came up. It went something like this:

Interviewer: So what happened to all those millions your father made in the stock market?"

Son of Gann: "He never left us millions. He left us $50,000 ( do not quote me on this.. it was a low figure). My father was a failure trading the stock market. Although he did o.k. selling his trading materials."

There was a bit more to it than that but read the book for your-self and have a laugh at all those so called "Gann" experts selling trading methods based on a method whose originator never made any money from.

Here is another fact about Gann... I read in the Market Wizards II book the Interview with William Eckhardt (p.110 / p.111) , and believe me if the top, professional traders talk about Gann trading methods in this way, you do not want to be wasting your time on it.

Eckhardt: "If you wanted your computer system to be cognizant of slope, you would have to program this feature into it. At that point, it would become abundantly clear that the slope value depends directly on the choice of units and scales for the time and price axes"

My comment: Basically he is saying in non mathematical language.. Gann angles for trading are too subjective.

Jack Schwager: I have always been amazed by how many people are oblivious to the time scale-dependent nature of chart angles or unconcerned about its ramifications. My realization of the Inherent arbitrariness of slope of line methods is precisely I've never been willing to spend five minutes even five minutes on Gann angles or the works by the proponents of his methodology.

There you have it.

Verdict: I wouldn't even look at it for an academic interest point. Never mind from a trading method. A complete waste of your time, money and effort.

Rating:

0/10

Author`s note:
Get your Momentum Stock Trading System and sign up for my free weekly online trading system newsletter here at: http://www.stressfreetrading.com

The Profit Potential Of Penny Stocks

2006-06-10T12:46:00.000-07:00

by Joe Kenny

Penny stocks, as the name suggests, are shares that are available at extremely cheap rates. Being available literally for pennies, you can purchase such stocks for as low as $2 per share. These stocks are usually of very small companies, which have a market capitalization of less than $500 million. They are not traded at the major stock exchanges like NASDAQ or NYSE, but are listed in the pink sheets or the OTCBB (Over The Counter Bulletin Board), because these stocks are of companies that are unable to meet their listing requirements. They are also referred to by other names such as pink sheet stocks, nano stocks, small caps, micro caps or juniors.

Investing in penny stocks is considered very risky as they are traded without any regulatory or listing requirements, which provide security to shareholders. There are no accounting standards, and the shareholder gets no information about the change of ownership of shares etc. This makes it a potential source of fraud.

However, with proper research, investment in penny stocks can be a tremendous earning potential. Not all companies listed with pink sheet stocks should be considered fraudulent. Some of them represent good companies, which are too small to meet the requirements of the NYSE or NASDAQ. Many such companies have a bright future. Unlike blue chip stocks, penny stocks have greater volatility; hence, they have the potential of sometimes reaping rich dividends in a relatively short span of time. Thus, investing in these startup companies at rock bottom prices can end up in making investors very wealthy.

However, finding these companies requires research. The number of shares that the company has on ‘float’ is one indicator that needs to be ascertained. ‘Float’ is the technical term for the number of shares of the company being traded. Since penny stock companies are unregulated, they are not bound to report these details to the public. The information, however, can be found in TV interviews, and the like, given by the representatives of the company occasionally, and are sometimes archived on their websites. There are forums on these websites where stock brokers chat with each other. You can also get the information on the message boards. Find and read the articles and reviews written about the company, which will give you a good idea of the float. For instance, if a company’s float were very high, it implies that it is merely issuing extra ones to keep afloat, hence would not be worth investing in. Companies that have five million to one hundred million shares are considered fit for investment.

The product of the company also needs to be scrutinized. For example, it is important to find out if the company would face obstacles in selling its products for various reasons, or whether patent issues would allow some other company to introduce a similar product in the market, all of which would affect the value of the stocks. Another important consideration would be whether the product is going to find appeal with the target consumers.

While investing in penny stocks may be more perilous than putting your money in bonds or the shares of established companies, the chances of striking it rich is also a strong possibility, which makes it a risk well worth taking.

Joe Kenny writes for SelectLoans.co.uk, a secured bad credit loans comparison site, visit us today for information on all loan topics including debt consolidation loans and links to leading UK providers. Author`s Site: http://www.selectloans.co.uk/

What is a Trading Plan - and Why You Need One?

2006-06-05T14:06:00.000-07:00

by David Jenyns

How do you make money without picking tops and bottoms?

I am glad you asked...

Successful trading is similar to a successful business. You see, every successful business has a business plan so do successful traders. The astute reader knows that, successful traders have a systematic way they approach the market.

The definition of a trading system is a trader's business plan; it defines your approach to trading...

1. A properly constructed trading system will leave no room for human judgment
2. It will define your actions given any circumstances that may arise.
3. It is a distinct set of rules
4. Which instructs the trader what to do and when to do it.

The importance of this trading plan cannot be understated. Without a consistent set of guiding principles to govern your trading decisions, most traders will hop from one trade to the next, guided by emotion or hysteria.

I firmly believe that not having a plan, you are doomed to fail.

Trading systems themselves will come in many varieties, although they all take the guesswork out of trading. A trading system will determine for you when to buy or sell. System trading has proven itself consistently to be the most effective long-term trading technique.

In fact, you may have even heard the story about one of the most famous system traders of all time, Richard Dennis. It just so happened, in mid 1983, Dennis was having an ongoing dispute with his long time friend Bill Eckhardt about whether great traders were born or made. Dennis believed that trading could be broken down into a set of rules that others could learn. On the other hand, Eckhardt believed trading had more to do with innate instincts, and this skill comes naturally.

In order to settle the matter, Richard suggested that they recruit and train some traders and give them actual accounts to trade to see which one of them was correct. He named his protégés after visiting turtle farms in Singapore; he decided to grow traders similar to the way farmers cultivated turtles, hence the name: Turtles.

To cut a long story short, Dennis taught his trading methodology to these groups of students who later became some of the most successful traders of all time; proving finally, that anyone can become skilled at system trading.

Just like the turtles, I too have studied under a mentor who tutored me in the science of trading. Now, I pass these secrets on to you.

A trading system is simply a set of rules that address every aspect of a trade such as entry and exit conditions and money management. Regardless of how complex it may be, a good test for your trading plan is to hand it to someone else to read thoroughly. See if your selected candidate asks questions. If they can easily understand all the rules and the requirements of your strategy with little to no questions, then you have compiled a sound investment plan.

All successful traders that I meet do this and they have their exact trading methodology written down.

Since most traders lose money and do not have their trading methodology written down, does not it make sense to do what the masses are not doing? If you are trading now and have not taken the time to write out methodology, then stop trading and get it done!

Why is it so important? When you take time to sit down and spell out how you perceive the markets, you are accepting the fact that you might be wrong. You are beginning to accept responsibility. Once you write down how you perceive the market, the only conclusion you can arrive at, if the market does not behave according to what you wrote, is that your perception is wrong. When you write down how you are going to enter a trade, only if certain events transpire, you eliminate any possibility of blaming the market. You are forcing yourself to have discipline.

In other words, if you determined that certain bullish signs show up in your market then you enter into a long position. If these prior events occur, and you did not enter the trade, that failure is your fault.

The Components of Your Trading Plan:

A business plan has set components; so does a trading plan. In fact, there are three major components within any trading plan and they are entry, exits and money management rules; here is a quick summary:

1. Tested Entry Rules

-- Entry rules are a precise set of rules that an instrument must pass before you enter a trade. Entry rules should be simple, direct, and leave no room for human judgment.

2. Confidential Money Management Rules

-- Perhaps the most important and least addressed aspect of trading is the ability to manage risk. A profitable trader is one who has the ability to manage the risks associated with trading. A trading system should define exactly how much money you are willing to lose on any given trade.

3. Tested Exits Rules

-- Entering a share is all to no avail if you do not know when to exit a position. Having rules that defines your exit is equally important as one that defines your entry.

When you take time to write down your trading rules, you transform your mental reality to a physical reality. You cannot fudge the numbers, or avoid taking responsibility.

By writing down your methodology, you are forcing yourself to create a series of decisions based on how you see the markets and this my friend is just the beginning.

About author:
David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it comes to designing profitable stock trading systems. Discover the "secret formula" of trading that anyone can use to consistently generate BIG profits from the market by downloading your FREE copy of David's new Ultimate Stock Trading Systems course. Click Here To Download

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Predict Stock Market Tops and Bottoms With The NH-NL Ratio

2006-06-02T19:58:00.000-07:00

by Chris Perruna

The new high/new low ratio (NH-NL) ratio has been around for many years but different investors use this indicator in different ways. Some investors plot the ratio on a chart using the number zero as a neutral designation with positive numbers equaling more new highs than new lows and a negative number equaling more new lows than new highs based on a specified period of time. I have developed and used the NH-NL ratio in a completely different way from some of the more popular methods. I started to follow stocks making new highs while reading the paper Investor’s Business Daily many years ago. I didn’t use the news highs as an indicator but I only studied stocks to buy from the list. As I became a more experienced investor, I subconsciously started to gauge the market while noting if the new highs were increasing or decreasing. After the stock market bubble burst in 2000, I started to record the difference between the daily new highs and the daily new lows. I would enter them into an excel sheet along with the price and volume of the major market indices and study their relationship. Within two years, I was convinced that the major market tops and bottoms could be located easily by aggressively studying the price and volume of the major indices and studying the ups and downs of the NH-NL ratio. The general market indices often give investors false moves in all directions and many market services and investors have developed new indicators to help assess the market to try and pinpoint turning points without great success. Many of these secondary indicators are successful in showing the investor if the market is weak or strong but they fail to pinpoint the strength or weakness of a turning point with great accuracy. Many of these secondary indicators give false signals along with the general market indices.

With several years of serious study under my belt using my method of the NH-NL ratio, I have accurately protected my money during downturns and have accurately guided my buys when the market has reversed and started a new sustained up-trend (not a head fake).

How do I use my NH-NL ratio?

I start by recording the daily new highs and new lows from Investors Business Daily (my preference) but you could use any free or paid service on the web. Over the past five years, I have developed key levels that the market must reached or violate to trigger certain actions. I am not pulling any of these numbers from thin air as they are all based on actual experience and have not been derived from back testing. For a market to convince me that it is following through and is starting a new up-trend, it must present me with a minimum of 500 new highs per day on a consistent basis. When a week ends, I add the weekly NH-NL totals and divide by the number of active trading days to get the weekly average. The average must have a minimum of 500 stocks per day for me to consider risking over 50% of my cash in new positions (the new leaders). Once the weekly averages reach 800-1,000+ stocks per day, we know that the market is in a full fledged rally and you can start to commit your entire trading stake and use margin. In 2003, the market gave numerous instances when the new highs topped 1,000-1,200 stocks per day, a very impressive amount. When the market shows strength like this, the trend has become obvious and you must have your money working for you by following the trend. Keep in mind that 75% of all listed stocks will follow the general trend of the market.

Recently in September and October of 2005, the NH-NL ratio has been negative, meaning that we are seeing more new lows than new highs. When this type of action happens, you must lock in profits and move your cash to the sidelines. It is not safe to invest on the long side of the market when the ratio is negative. Often times, a bear market may be forming when the ratio weakens and turns negative. If the market confirms a bear market or down-trend, it can be an opportune time to make money shorting stocks or using advanced strategies with options (I only recommend this for advanced and experienced traders). You must determine f the market is in a down-trend or if it is trading sideways. If it is trading sideways, it will be better to pull your cash to the sidelines and wait for a direction to form (either up or down). This article is being written and published on October 25, 2005, the first day after the NH-NL ratio has turned back to the positive side after 13 consecutive days of a negative ratio. The past two weeks have averaged negative ratios with some days only reaching 15 quality new high stocks. This type of weak action could signal a bottom in the market as we get ready to form a new rally. The most crucial indicator to watch over the next few weeks will be the NH-NL ratio to see if it can continue to gain strength and increase the new highs to 500 or more stocks per day. If this happens, the current indication that a rally has formed on the major indices will be confirmed and you can start to commit more than 50% of your trading stake to new leaders breaking out of sound bases or stocks moving higher from establish support areas.

As I look back at my archived hard copies of IBD, I can see the strength and weakness that this ratio gave us throughout 2002 and 2003. I am reminded how the ratio went from negative territory in September of 2002 to a positive ratio in October of 2002. After reaching positive territory, the new high ratio soared into the 800-1,100 range in the first six months of 2003 as we were in a strong bull market, the strongest year since the bubble burst. I don’t know what next month or next year holds for investors, but you can get a good idea by tracking this indicator as it turns back to the positive side after a very poor October (2005). I once wrote about the Halloween indicator and I am now convinced that it has some validity, especially if this NH-NL ratio confirms another rally as October draws to a close.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We offer an extended no obligation monthly trial period starting immediately with two free weeks. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Published under category : Stock Technical Analysis

Ignore Stock Market "Talking Heads"

2006-05-29T08:44:00.000-07:00

by Chris Perruna

You should ignore analysts on TV, the radio, the newspaper and all other TALKING HEADS when it comes to investing! What stocks do they talk about? - The same old group, every day of every year - Why? Because they don't know any better, they are sheep like the general public, repeating what every economic textbook says and every other economist tells them to say. Everyday, the same companies are highlighted on the evening news -

WHY?

They aren't going anywhere. Some of the stocks that make the headlines every night were leaders of the market 20 years ago. New cycles bring new leaders; this has been proven year in and year out. So many of these TALKING HEADS shout out about "buy and hold" but what are they really holding? They hold old high-flyers that were superstars but have now become fallen stars that sit 20%, 50% or even 90% off of their all-time highs (some may have given you a small return - 10% or less over the past 5 years - WOW - BIG DEAL!). Yes, maybe over 15 or 20 years, you will get your money back - but what is the point? Many of these "so-called" investors tell you how they own XYZ stock and it has returned them 65% BUT they leave out the key factor that it has taken 16 years to get to that point.

One of the strongest and most promising stocks of the early 1900's (1920 decade) was RCA - this stock was one that people claimed you put in your portfolio and hold it till near death - it will NEVER fall and if it does, hold on because it will come back. Well, let's take a look: RCA soared over 1100% during the 1920's and crashed with the rest of the market in the early 1930's. It went from a low 0f $8.70 to a high of $106 to a crash level of $3.00. Some said to hold, some said buy on every dip. - Guess what, it didn't climb back to pre-crash levels until 1963! 30 years to break even for some. Maybe that stock in your portfolio is the RCA of yesterday; history always repeats itself because human nature is always the same!

Stocks are worthy to be held over long periods of time, this is a proven fact but don't EVER hold a stock when it is flashing SELL signals left and right (especially if everyone on TV is telling you to buy now on the dip, "it is a bargain"). These talking heads were saying this about every stock on their computer screen in 2000 and 2001 - "buy the dip". The only dip was the guy on TV and all of the suckers watching him/her. I don't mean to offend anyone but you need to take control of your investing life, you need to learn why stocks go up, why they go down and that NO STOCK is immune to a bear market like the one we just had.

Leaders of the market now, won't be leaders in the future - on some rare occasions, a stock here or there will defy everything and grow decade after decade, but even these stocks end their amazing rise at some point. Same is true for old leaders, they won't lead the markets of today - they become too large and their growth slows, preventing them from being excellent growth stocks and giving you excellent returns. Now - I never said you couldn't own a stock like this, many people are satisfied with these companies, they "feel secure", that is fine; everyone has different goals.

Let the market tell you what is going up or down. Watch "sister stocks", I talk about them in our education section of the website. What do I mean by sister stocks? They are stocks that are in the same industry. When an industry is strong, most of the stocks in this group will rise, hand in hand. (I say most - not all, laggards always stay behind). Fundamentals will be strong for most stocks in the group and technicals will guide you along the trip - think of technicals as a road map.

Once fundamentals have been established, check the charts, if several stocks from a particular group are breaking out of bases, this is a strong sign that something great is about to happen in this group. The more positive the overall market the better the group will perform (bear markets tend to hold down just about everyone). Why buy a stock that has great fundamentals in a weak group? If all other stocks in that group are acting weak, this may be telling you that the "one" bright spot in this group will eventually come back to the pack, so don't chance it. Investing is about lowering your risk! Don't take a risk on a stock that looks good but the industry is hurting.

Buy the leader of a group where several stocks are showing strength. Never buy the cheap stock that is lagging in performance, this is a sure way of losing money - buy the best of the group - the one with the best fundamentals (accelerating earnings, ROE, sales, etc.) and technicals (basing pattern, breakouts on huge volume, relative strength, etc...). What may look high to the general public; usually turns out to be low to the smart professional investor. I am not talking about the "talking heads" on TV - the smart investors work for institutions - they move the market! When they buy, everyone knows because volume jumps to extreme levels or levels not seen in prior months or years. The everyday guy doesn't have this power - ONLY institutions have this power - learn to understand this power, here lies the smart money.

Finally, as I grind this educational information into your subconscious mind, ignore the "Talking Heads" and learn to listen to the market. Price and volume will always give you the best advice.

About author:
Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and CEO of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don’t stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Published under category : Stock Fundamental Analysis

Mutual Fund Honor Roll - Buy High, Sell Low by Chasing Performance

2006-05-26T11:42:00.000-07:00

by Tim Olson

Buy high and sell low -- It's not a typo.

Millions of investors guarantee their failure by selecting mutual funds and stocks based on quarterly or annual performance records. Do you chase performance? You might be buying high and selling low!

As the year draws to a close, millions of mutual fund investors begin an annual event to divine next year’s winners. Yet most of these individuals rely heavily on a time-honored – but terribly wrong – method of evaluating strength. Whether analyzing screening tools from websites, reviewing fund honor rolls in magazines, or using star ratings from fund analysts, normally savvy business people foolishly chase the returns of last year’s hottest investments.

This begs the question: Can top performing mutual funds lead two years in a row? Consider a study commissioned by Vanguard Investments Australia and released by Morningstar. The five best performing funds were analyzed from 1994 to 2003. Here are the results:

-- Only 16% of top five funds make it to the following year’s list.

-- Top five funds average 15% lower returns the following year.

-- Top five funds barely beat (by 0.3%) the market the following year.

-- 21% of all top five funds ceased to exist within the following 10 years.

Academic studies and market statistics confirm the typical investor acts in direct opposition to the sage advice – buy low, sell high. It’s only after high returns are realized and reported that investors pour money into both stock and bond mutual funds. In fact, Financial Research Corporation compared investor cash flows into mutual funds. Purchases immediately following best-performing quarters exceed 14 times those immediately following their worst-performing quarters. In other words, you are 14 times more likely to buy funds at their highest price than at it’s lowest. Buy high and sell low.

Just what kind of damage are they inflicting to their investment returns? DALBAR, Inc., conducted a well-known study called Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. The study confirms investors’ poor timing and the resulting financial carnage. Investors buy funds immediately after a rapid price appreciation. This just happens to be right before investment performance wanes. Prices fall soon after and the investors quickly dump their holdings to search for the next hot fund. The resulting returns fail to even beat inflation! When measured over the last nineteen years, the average equity investor earned a meager 2.6% annual return. Compare that to a 3.1% inflation rate and a 12.2% return from the S&P 500 over the exact same time period. Not only did investors fail to keep up with the market, they also lost money to inflation.

We’ve all seen the warnings on packages of cigarettes. Even smokers understand their relevance; smoking is not a healthy activity. So why do investors not heed warnings about mutual fund returns? You’ve all seen those statements too. But can you remember what is said? Past performance is not a guarantee or indicator of future results. Research and studies have proven this fact, yet the majority of investors choose to ignore this warning. Yes, it’s an easy means of comparing funds. It also happens to be completely irrelevant. Let me evangelize these words for you. Past performance does not predict future results!

Here’s how you can stop chasing short term performance and stay focused on your financial goals. Identify appropriate long-term investments by evaluating the following:
(1) Leadership: How does the fund perform relative to similar size and similar style funds?
(2) Tenure: How long have the managers and advisors been at the fund?
(3) Management: Managers well-known, highly-regarded (e.g. remember Peter Lynch)?
(4) Consistency: Are the 3, 5, and 10 year returns all above average?

Finally, measure returns based on your entire portfolio. History shows that no single investment success repeats. Accept the fact every year is different and brings new leaders and laggards. Use an asset allocation strategy to guarantee balance and increase long term returns among all your investments. Invest in a diversified portfolio to meet your financial goals — and stick with it.

Not yet learned your lesson? Consider this: Fourteen mutual funds topped the 2003 charts with returns over 100%. In 2004, these fourteen funds lost over 4% while the S&P 500 gained 3%. Congratulations, chasing performance lost 7% of your money this year.

Tim Olson

TheAssetAdvisor.com
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About author:
Mr. Olson is the editor of The Asset Advisor, a financial investment service providing proven strategies for no-load mutual fund investors. He brings 26 years of education and experience from Stanford University, Ernst & Young financial consulting, personal wealth management, and venture capital investing.

Bull Call Spread

2006-05-25T13:40:00.000-07:00

by Nick Hunter

A bull call spread is when you have a long (buy) call option and a short (sell) call and you want the market to rise, hoping the options get exercised or are traded for a profit. Bullish call spread strategies have premium (cost) risk, but in the option world - that is pretty minor. Since one option offsets the other, large or unlimited losses are not usually seen with spread trading.

It's important to understand first that a buy or long call option, by itself - is bullish and a short call by itself - is bearish.

When you own a call option, you are bullish because the contract gives the holder the right to buy the underlying stock at the strike price. When a trader is short a call contract, he is bearish. That is because the investor is obligated to deliver shares of the stock to the call holder when the option is exercised. This usually results in a loss for the seller, as the market will be higher to get the stock and it's being sold at a lower strike price.

A spread takes those 2 positions and has them work together. Although, they do not have to get exercised together. A bull call spread means the contracts are set up in a way that makes strategy profitable only if the market goes up. This also means that the contract bought cost more than the contract sold. Bullish call spreads are also known as call debit spreads.

Example:

Buy 1 SDH Nov 80 Call for $500
Short 1 SDH Nov 90 Call for $200

This is an example of a debit bull call spread. Debit because the investor has lost $300 on the premiums bought and sold. The buy option cost $500 and the short took in $200. Since the trader is very aware of this initial loss, he wants the market to rise so the options have a chance to grow in value. If this happens, the person take advantage of trading opportunities on the more valuable contracts or he can look to exercise both contracts and make a positive spread on the strike prices.

Exercising bull call spreads

Spreads are basically covered options. One option covers the other - but not always for a profit. When it's a bullish call spread, it will be profitable. The buy or long call can be exercised at 80. This means the trader can own the stock itself at $80. If the short call is exercised (called away) at 90, he has a 10 point positive gain on the strike price. The maximum gain for this strategy is 10 points minus the net loss debit of 3 points. So, on one contract each, the maximum profit on this call spread is $700.

The point being, bullish call spreads are only profitable when the market goes up. Otherwise these options would fade out in a declining market and the investor would lose the $300.

Expiring bullish spreads

The worst case scenario with bullish call strategies are the options expiring. It is to the investors advantage the market rises soon after the contracts have been established. That is always the big picture with options. They come and go quick.

Happy Trading

More Spreads

About author:
Nick Hunter is the President of American Investment Training. Their website http://www.aitraining.com offers investors and brokers with education courses and investment information.

Published under category : Stock Trading

Should I Incorporate Fundamental Analysis When Trading a System?

2006-05-22T18:38:00.000-07:00

by Markus Heitkoetter

There's a common misconception about "Fundamental Analysis": People tend to think that the market should react in a certain way to news. Example: "Unemployment Rate goes down", which means that the economy is doing better, therefore companies should make more profits and stock prices will move up. Conclusion: If the unemployment report is positive, the market moves up.

But in reality the markets are driven by greed and fear, and not by supply and demand or anything like this. A report itself is meaningless: It's the traders reaction to the report that moves the market.

Here's a perfect example: On Friday, April 7th 2006 the unemployment rate for March was published. The market expected an unemployment rate of 4.8%, and the numbers came in better than expected: Only 4.7% (for details see http://biz.yahoo.com/c/ec/200614.html). That's good news, isn't it? The market should move up, right?

WRONG! On that day the e-mini S&P dropped 20 points. Why?

Well. here are some comments I got from a news-service:

"Not surprisingly, Friday's equity trade was dictated by the March employment report. More specifically, it was the Treasury market's reaction to it that set the stage for stocks." ...

"A lack of negative surprise caused the stock market to breathe a sigh of relief."...

"The Treasury market had a very divergent reaction to the data, and it took the stock market down with it. For Treasury traders, the in-line data essentially provided no evidence that the Fed will be inclined to soon end its monetary tightening cycle."

Oups. So the stock traders thought it's good news and the market was moving up, but the treasury trader in the other room thought it's bad data. So treasury instruments were rallying, causing the stock market to drop like a rock. But don't stocks lead the treasuries? Or do treasuries lead stocks? ...

As I am writing these lines another news hits the ticker: Oil prices trading above $69 per barrel. But what does it mean? Should the stock market move up or down? Here's a discussion that I heard this morning: "As crude oil prices continue to plug higher the debate over what it all really means will begin again. The questions that will be batted back & forth are "Are sky-high oil prices indicative of a coming economic slowdown or looming inflation?" And more important: How will the Fed react? Will they cease increasing interest rates or even lower the rates again? This would provide a boost for the stock market. Or will traders fear that there's an economic slowdown which might result in lower company earnings? This would move the market down.

As you can see, it's not the news that move the market; it's the reaction of the traders to news that let prices jump up and down.

Now, how should a computer model take these emotions into consideration?

In my opinion there's no way, and I haven't seen any models (incl. artificial intelligence) that is coming somewhat close to this (sometimes really weird) human behavior.

That's why I for one don't incorporate Fundamental Analysis into my trading systems.

About author: Markus Heitkoetter is a 15 year veteran of the markets and the CEO of Rockwell Trading. For more free information and a free eBook "How to make money with trading systems" visit www.rockwelltrading.com and www.futures-trading-systems.net

Published under category : Stock Fundamental Analysis

Basic Strategy Day Trading

2006-05-16T08:50:00.000-07:00

Stock trading is a very competitive field and in order to succeed you need to focus on a set of simple strategies that you can implement without hesitation. That's why the most important aspect of stock trading is the knowledge filter you employ to make your buy & sell decisions.

Day market online stock trading is not more risky than other trading activity, but substantial gains and losses can occur a small period of time. Money management in the field of stock trading is almost as important as stock selection. A primary motivation of day trading stock online is understandably the lure of quick money. Another motivating factor is that it isn't necessarily any riskier than other forms of trading activity.

There are six basic strategies day traders use to make a profit:
1. Spread Covering: Refers to buying at the BID price and then selling at the ASK price. The spread is the difference between these two prices.

2. Technical Trading: Simply the action undertaken by a technical analyst. He or she evaluates securities by relying on the assumption that market data, such as price charts, volume, and open interest, can help predict future, usually short term, market trends. Unlike fundamental analysis, the intrinsic value of the security is not considered. Technical analysts believe that they can accurately predict the future price of a stock by looking at its historical prices and other trading variables. Many technical analysts are also market timers, who believe that technical analysis can be applied just as easily to the market as a whole as to an individual stock.

3. Scalping: Refers to an extremely quick trade for a small profit. For example, if you bought 20,000 shares in XYZ Corp. @ $1 per share, i.e. $30,000 invested, then sold them 30 minutes later for $1.025 per share, $30,750 gross return, you would end up pocketing a cool $750 less brokerage. Note: when you are day trading stock online, the round turn brokerage fees are minimal.

4. Range Trading: It is a little harder and inherently more risky, but the returns can be proportionately greater, too! If you are canny enough to be able to pick the intra day market swings and either BUY at or near a low, then SELL at or near a high you can often make substantial profits using this method. But you do have to be wary, because if you buy into what you think is an intra day low point, only to discover that the market sentiment has changed and that a severe sell off is in progress, you could get badly burnt!

5. Playing News: It is the realm of the adrenaline seeking day trader. The technique refers to buying a stock which has just announced, for example, a short sell on bad news, the contrarian traders love this sort of play as they will be standing in line to BUY the stock at the end of a short, sharp sell off in the belief that most if not all the bad news is already factored into the market and therefore there wont be any further downward pressure. The sheer volatility offered by unexpected news announcements can provide the diligent day trader with huge potential for quick profits, or losses if they call the market incorrectly.

6. Trend Following: Assumes that if a stock have been rising steadily it will continue to rise. Admittedly, this technique is better suited to position traders, i.e. where stocks are held for a number of days, weeks or even months, but in strong bull markets some stocks will rise steadily for days on end, making the intra day trend follower excited.

However, unless thoroughly tested and proven trading strategies are put in place with each trade, the risk of incurring substantial losses within a frighteningly short period of time is all too real. So, watch your step carefully

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Stocks - A Winning Way To Scan For Stocks That Are In Uptrends

2006-05-11T09:48:00.000-07:00

by Ricky Lim

With thousands of stocks listed in the stock exchange for trading, how does a trader go about his stock selection? I am not refering to the fundamental approach where the trader studies the fundamentals of the company, and research the performance results of the company, check its price-earnings ratios or check its balance sheets and turnover and its dividend yield.

By and large among those successful traders who really make their living off by trading professionally in the stock markets, their preferred method seems to be the technical analysis approach.

By this, they use charting, and technical indicators applied to the stocks. They will devise filters or explorations, to scan for stocks that meet some selected indicators to show that the stocks are beginning to move or have started to move.

Professional traders who trade for a living have an array of trading tools to help them, but one of the most common tools they use to good effect is the indicator called On Balance Volume.

Popularised by Joseph Granville, the On Balance Volume or OBV in short is actually cumulative volume, where the underlying principle is that similar OBV should support equivalent price. By using this indicator, short term traders will be able to identify when there is a difference in this setting, or where OBV has outbreak already but price has still lagged behind, giving rise to the situation where an impending price jump is expected.

But how large is the impending jump? If there is indeed an OBV outbreak, and by inference the price should follow in the next few trading sessions, one must also ensure that the impending jump is of sufficient size to warrant a good margin of profit attractive enough for him to trade.

Added to this trading indicator, traders add yet another trading stipulation to nail those giant moves. We know in Elliot wave theory that the 3 and 5 waves of any stock are the impulsive and strong waves up.

I have seen much success from traders who scan their stocks with an OBV outbreak and are in their impulsive 3 and 5th waves which are their longest and strongest waves.

Armed with this understanding, when a stock is found to have just undergone an OBV Outbreak upwards and is moving within either its 3rd or 5th wave, you have an excellent candidate that will probably run away in price, and letting you reap a handsome profit within a short trading period.

Peter Lim is a Certified Financial Planner and trading coach. His ebook "Swing Trading For Gigantic Profits" at http://signaldot.poolofwisdom.com/swingbook.phtml reveals how one can become a winning trader. You can also access free resources on swing trading and momentum trading by visiting http://www.online-guides.info

Published under category : Stock Technical Analysis

Six Things To Do In A High Risk Market

2006-05-08T14:33:00.000-07:00

by Thomas Mullooly

When the market turns against you, what should you do? Sell everything? We discussed that choice in a recent column. Selling everything draws your “line in the sand” and announces that you have determined there is no future for you in the market.

There are other steps you can take when things start moving against you. Here are 6 actions you take today to help protect the money you’ve worked hard to get. In my next article, I will share several more ways you can help protect your stock market and mutual fund investments.

1. Decide at what price you will buy the stock or fund if it pulls back. Take a long look at where the stock has been the last few months. Has it gone up without any kind of break? It may be due for a pullback. WRITE DOWN your reasons for buying and the ideal price you’d like to own it at...and be patient. If you miss it, you miss it. Don’t chase stocks.

2. Manage your stops. Re-examine where your stop orders are and decide if you can live with getting stopped out. These days, stop orders usually need to be renewed or revised every 60 days. If your stock has moved up nicely of late, you should move your stop up as well.

3. Buy puts on stocks. You may own a stock where you have a profit. You may really have no intention of selling the stock soon. But you know that the individual stock may have gone up too far, too fast. Buy a put on the position. It is considered protection on your original investment. If the stock falls, the puts should climb in value. This will offset the drop you have (on paper) in the underlying stock. And if you’re right, and take a profit in the put, you may have enough cash from the put sale to buy more shares of that stock at a good price, now that it has dropped.

4. Buy half of what you would normally buy. You want to tread lightly in markets when the risk is high. Buy half of what you’d normally think of doing. You‘re automatically keeping more cash than usual on the sidelines, which is smart decision in a risky market.

5. Invest in a basket instead of an individual stock. Exchange-traded funds are a great way to do this. If you feel strongly that a current theme will work, but are unsure about the market, this may be your ticket. Thinking about swapping a single stock for a basket. You’ll get diversified since you own a basket of names instead of one single stock.

6. When stocks start to fall, think about selling stocks short. It’s not for the faint of heart, since being “short” leaves you on the hook, because your loss is unlimited. But remember, stocks don’t just go in one direction. What makes it an interesting market is that stocks go up AND down.

One decision you won’t see on the list is the choice to do nothing, and just “sit it out” or ride it out. You’ve worked hard to get where you are financially, the last thing you should do is sit idle and let the market take your profits away from you.

There are other methods you can employ to help reduce the risk in your account, which we will get into in the next article. In the meantime, feel free to contact us, toll-free, at 877-223-7300 if you would like further information on how to protect your assets in a high risk market.

About author:
Thomas P. Mullooly, President of Mullooly Asset Management, LLC (http://www.mullooly.net) has spent over twenty years in the investment industry, as a broker and as an investment advisor. Mullooly Asset Management is a fee-only registered investment advisory firm based in New Jersey, specializing in retirement plan accounts, particularly managing 401k, 403b, and deferred compensation accounts for individuals. Feel free to contact us to check out the relative strength of your portfolio by sending an email to tom@mullooly.net or visiting http://www.mullooly.net/403b-plan.html or sign up to receive the market report and tips on how you can soundly invest your money at http://www.mullooly.net

Published under category : Stock Trading Tips

Shorting Strategy and Value Investing

2006-05-03T11:48:00.000-07:00

by Henry Lu

How does shorting work?

Shorting strategy has been very popular since the bubble burst of technology stocks in 2000. Shorting a stock is simply a bet that the stock price will drop.

An investor can sell a stock he/she does not own by borrowing shares from brokers. The investor can sell the stock first and then buy back the shares at later time. The investor can make profit if the stock price he/she sells is higher than the price he or she buy back later on.

Shorting Strategy for Value Investors? At appearance, shorting strategy should work well with most value investors. The core task of a value investing is to calculate the intrinsic value or the worth of a stock in order to identify bargain stocks that are trading at discount to their intrinsic values. If a successful value investor can buy cheap stocks based on their intrinsic value, why not just short a over-priced stock? In the end, method for calculation of intrinsic value is same whether the stock is overpriced or underpriced.

However, if you read carefully the value investing books from Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, you can find very little information on shorting. We also know that Warren Buffet himself does not utilize shorting method. So why is shorting strategy not used by 2 greatest value investors in history?

Shorting Requires Higher Degree of Diversification

Mutual funds are known to have extremely diversified portfolio of hundreds to thousands of stocks.

Many successful value investors invest into concentrated stock portfolio with adequate diversification. In the book Intelligent Investor Chapter 5 titled "the Defensive Investor and Common Stocks", Benjamin Graham preached "adequate diversification" of 10 to 30 stocks, but not "excessive diversification". Warren Buffet was also known to invest into portfolio of less than 20 - 30 stocks for his hedge fund in earlier years and for his firm Berkshire Hathaway. Charles T. Munger, the second man of Berkshire Hathaway, and a great billionaire value investor himself, was also known to make even more concentrated bet than Warren Buffet when he was alone managing his own hedge fund before he joined Berkshire Hathaway. My past investment performance in Blast Investor Real-time Plus newsletter was also obtained with concentrated portfolio of around 10 stocks as well.

However, this kind of concentrated portfolio common in value investing world would not have adequate diversification with shorting strategy. To illustrate this point, I put following 2 hypothetical cases for comparing a typical long-only value investing portfolio and a short-and-long combined portfolio.

Case 1 - Long Only Value Investing Portfolio

Table 1- Portfolio 1, Long Only Portfolio

Stock Long or Short $ USD for stock position

1 long $10,000

2 long $10,000

3 long $10,000

4 long $10,000

5 long $10,000

6 long $10,000

7 long $10,000

8 long $10,000

A long $10,000

B long $10,000

Total Equity $100,000

Table 1 is fully invested hypothetical portfolio with 10 stocks. All the 10 stocks are long position of bargain value stocks. Suppose for the 2 years, 1 to 8 stock price stayed flat with no gain and no loss, and stock A and B each lost 90% of their value in the first year, and then not only regained all the losses in the second year and actually doubled from the original entry price. Table 2 is performance of portfolio 1 for this 2 years:

Table 2 - Performance of Portfolio 1

Stock Initial Year1 Year2

A $ 10,000 $1,000 $ 20,000

B $ 10,000 $1,000 $ 20,000

Portfolio1 $100,000 $82,000 $120,000

Portfolio1 Performance NA -18% 46,34%

90% of loss in 2 of 10 stocks in portfolio did not kill the 2 year overall performance of portfolio 1. In fact, Portfolio 1 still enjoyed overall 20% gain over the 2 years.

Case 2 - Long and Short Portfolio

Table 3- Portfolio 2:

Long 8 Stocks, Short 2 Stocks

Stock Long or Short $ USD for stock position

1 long $ 10,000

2 long $ 10,000

3 long $ 10,000

4 long $ 10,000

5 long $ 10,000

6 long $ 10,000

7 long $ 10,000

8 long $ 10,000

X short $ 10,000

Y short $ 10,000

Total Equity $100,000

Table 3 is fully invested hypothetical portfolio with 10 stocks. All 8 stocks (stock 1 to stock 8) are same long position of bargain value stocks, and Stock X and Stock Y are short positions. Suppose for the 2 years, 1 to 8 stock price stayed flat with no gain and no loss, and stock price X and Y each increased 10 times in the first year, and then not only lost all the gains in the second year and actually further crashed and cut in half from the original entry price. Table 4 is performance of portfolio 2 for this 2 years:

Table 4 - Performance of Portfolio 2

Stock Initial Equity Year 1 Equity Year 2 Equity

X short position $ 10,000 -$90,000 $ 15,000

Y short position $ 10,000 -$90,000 $ 15,000

Portfolio2 $100,000 $ 0 (wipe out) $ 0 (wipe out)

Portfolio2 Performance NA -100% -100%

Although the investor correctly predicted that stock price of X and Y would drop in 2 years, the first year rise of 10 times in stock price of X and Y triggered margin call in portfolio 2. The 2 short positions of X and Y wiped out the whole portfolio 2 so that the portfolio never had a chance to profit in the second year of dramatic crash of X and Y stock price.

Market Timing and Money Management

Although the above -90% loss and 10 times rise hypothetical cases are not common, this kind of wild ride in stock market did happen. A stock price change from $1 to $10 or from $10 to $1 was even less rare in small cap or micro cap market.

A prudent investor certainly can not rule out such possibility in portfolio management. Long term oriented value investing with 10 stocks can certainly withstand this kind of losses in case 1. However, the same kind of change would not have chance of surviving for shorting strategy as shown in case 2.

To avoid wipe out with short strategy, investor has 2 choices:

Investor either has to have a more diversified portfolio, possibly with hundreds or thousands of stocks just like a typical diversified mutual fund portfolio.

or Investor would engage in short term trading or market timing so that the investor can short at or near top to avoid wipe out risk.

Neither of above 2 choices are attractive for a truly successful value investor. First of all, concentrated bet without excessive diversification is one of key reasons for high performance. With hundreds or thousands of stocks under management, a portfolio with short strategy would be as mundane as a typical mutual fund portfolio in terms of performance. Second of all, value investing method is price oriented long term investing method, which by itself is at odds with any market timing or short term trading strategy.

Certainly, there are successful investors utilizing short strategy in stock market. However, here is my final 5 cents as below:

Great value investors such as Warren Buffet and Ben Graham do not short, you don't need to either.

About author:
Article by Henry Lu of BlastInvest LLC, a premium investment newsletter publisher in Connecticut. Visit http://www.BlastInvest.com for FREE "how-to" investing assistance, web services and more.

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

5 Steps To Researching a Stock Trade Before Investing

2006-04-28T09:32:00.000-07:00

by Briana Scurry

Once you determine which business cycle the economy is currently in you can start researching for a trade. It is best to have some sort of a system in place that will be used before EACH trade. Here is a simple 5 Step formula to help get you started.

5 Steps to Investing Online:

1. Find a stock

This is the most obvious and most difficult step in stock trading. With well over 10,000 stocks to trade a good rule of thumb to consider is time of the year. For example, as I write this, it is the beginning of spring. It would make sense to consider stocks that traditionally make runs, or slide if you are bearish, during this time of year.

2. Fundamental Analysis

Many short term traders may disagree with the need to do ANY Fundamental Analysis, however knowing the chart patterns from the past and the news regarding the stock is relevant. An example would be earnings season. If you are planning on playing a stock to the upside that has missed its earnings target the last 3 quarters, caution could be in order.

3. Technical Analysis

This is the part where indicators come in. Stochastics, the MACD, volume, moving averages, RSI, CCI, support levels, resistance levels and all the rest. The batch of indicators you choose, whether lagging or leading, may depend on where you get your education.

Keep it simple when first starting out, using too many indicators in the beginning is a ticket to the land of big losses. Get very comfortable using one or two indicators first. Learn their intricacies and you'll be sure to make better trades.

4. Follow your picks

Once you have placed a few stock trades you should be managing them properly. If the trade is meant to be a short term trade watch it closely for your exit signal. If it's a swing trade, watch for the indicators that tell you the trend is shifting. If it's a long term trade remember to set weekly or monthly checkups on the stock.

Use this time to keep abreast of the news, determine your price targets, set stop losses, and keep an eye on other stocks that you may want to own as well.

5. The big picture

As the saying goes, all ships rise and fall with the tide. Knowing which sectors are heating up stacks the chips in your favor.

For example, if you are long (expecting price to go up) on an oil stock and most of the oil sector is rising then more likely than not you are on the right side of the trade. Several trading platforms will give you access to sector-wide information so that you can get the education you need.

About author:
Briana Scurry has been trading for her own personal account for over 7 years. She has received and continues to receive training by top market analysis teachers in their fields. Her focus is on options and technical analysis. In her spare time she writes articles for Stock trading options blog

Published under category : Stock Trading

Emotion and Stock Trading

2006-04-25T09:12:00.000-07:00

by CT Larsen

The stock market is driven solely by human emotion. Nothing else really matters. Human emotion is driven by perception, and perception is jaded by expectations. If your expectations are not met, than your perception is that this is bad. So if your expectations are high, chances are you will be disappointed. The trick then is to gauge the expectations that stock traders have at any given moment. Unfortunately there is no reliable measurement that I know of to gauge expectations.

Much of any days movement can be attributed to the daily news. And most of the time it can be narrowed down to the day's economic news. There are of course non-economic events that shape the trader's expectations. Politics, war, disasters, etc., but barring any unusual activity in these areas, the economic news is the driving force of most trading day's activity. The notable exception is during 'earnings season', but we will be writing a whole article covering this at a later date. Suffice it to say however, earnings are the epitome of our theme presented here. Traders usually have scenarios in their heads, expectations if you will. They expect inflation to fall or rise, interest rates therefore will either fall or rise in lock step fashion with inflation. Indicators are used to predict inflation such as productivity, employment, consumer sentiment etc. And traders, have expectations of all these figures as the month goes on. They use their expectations to gauge whether these numbers come in as good news or bad news. In high inflationary times, a report on higher unemployment actually becomes a positive. Because higher unemployment means consumers have less money, thereby inflationary pressures will ease. But if the economy is perceived to be in a recession, than a report on higher unemployment is seen as negative, because we are not likely to pull ourselves out without people working.

And then to add to the confusion there are times when the numbers come in better than expected and the market still tanks. What gives to all of this confusing melting pot of expectations, perceptions and emotions? Well, one thing I can tell you, don't read too much into the standard market reports given at the end of the trading day. They are valuable in that they are nothing more than a report driven by the same emotions that drive the market. However, their downfall is that they fail to recognize this. Daily reports report the exact condition of the human psyche, without ever recognizing that the psyche is the market. They can't separate the two, and therefore their weakness is, that the psyche is an ever changing environment, and rarely stays the same two days in a row. Unless there is that rare and exceptional event that the whole world is focusing on. Sometimes the market just sells off, because it is time to. Sometimes it rallies because is just time to. If our expectations are that the market will go higher, because the economic data points that way, it will. But there will come a time, when the economic data fail to, or when our rosier than rosy scenario, shows a chink somewhere in that shining armor. And viola, nobody buys that day, or two days or week. Nothing in reality has changed except our emotions.

The trick to making money off all this is, watch the expectations. Watch the perceptions, and then watch the technical factors of the market, and the industries. If there is a bull move in housing say. And the underlying factors are there for home building, i.e. low interest rates. And the industry is moving along just fine, without speculative fever. This is the time you watch it, and wait. There will be some bad news along the way. Maybe even just a pause in housing permits, maybe an uptick in interest rates, for a very silly reason. And watch the band wagon empty out. This is when you buy, not while it is falling, but when it stops falling. This is the easiest band wagon to jump on. One that is stopping at the bus stop. Don't jump on the moving bus, wait for it to stop. Likewise that is when you jump off too, not after it has gone into reverse. But when it has stopped. The easiest part of any move, is the middle part. The beginning is hard to see, the end is full of unpredictability and wild price changes, but ahh that middle. The boring old middle, full of narrow trading days, and small incremental price jumps. Nobody prints articles about that, it isn't sexy or romantic. It is just profitable.

The other nice thing about the middle of any move, is it is backed by solid economic data in its favor. Any time there is unfortunate reports, people jump off slowly. The uptrend stops, not reverses. Because speculation hasn't hit yet. Expectations are not unrealistic. And it doesn't show up in the daily reports yet. The daily reports are filled with information about sectors that are either at the bottom or the top of their speculative run. Because without recognizing it they are reporting on the sectors that have the strongest emotions. And the two strongest emotions driving the market are none other than fear and greed. And when are fear and greed are at their most prominent, at the top and the bottom.

Trade without fear and greed, and you will trade well.

Now what to do about those daily reports? How to trade off of them? You trade opposite them. Not the day they are printed. When oil or housing are booming out of control and EVERYONE is talking about it. You put large cap oil and housing stocks on your watch list and wait. A month or two or three it isn't exact science here. Dealing with human emotions never is, just ask Freudians. But you wait, until they stop making news highs, until they start making lower highs, then you short them. Or vice versa when techs crashed. You wait, and when they stop making lower lows, you buy them. But not just any stocks, large caps, quality stocks with real value, like earnings, assets, maybe even a dividend or two. Shorting large caps makes sense too, as they are easier to borrow, and they pretty much follow the trend, in fact in many industries they are the trend.

Trade without fear and greed, and you will trade well. Think for yourself and you will trade well. I encourage you to read my daily blog at http://livingonlargecaps.blogspot.com

For real time trading following these and other common sense principles.

Published under category : Stock Trading Psychology

How Do I Determine My Stock Sell Points?

2006-04-17T01:38:00.000-07:00

by Chris Perruna

This is an excellent question, if fact, it’s the toughest question that I face with every stock that I own.

If I own a stock and it immediately goes down, this is the easiest decision I must make – SELL and sell fast. I know how to cut my losses and have been doing it for years. Yes, it’s a blow to my self esteem but I always feel better when I see that particular stock several dollars lower a few weeks later. This is when I feel good about the insurance policy I have (sell rules) to protect my capital.

Take Accuride (ACW) for example: I recently purchased the stock on a “three weeks tight pattern”, a pattern that is familiar with O’Neil and CANSLIM. I placed a market order as the stock started to move towards the breakout level of $15.00 and was filled at $14.99.

For a lower priced stock such as ACW, I give it about 8% breathing room which brings my sell point to $13.79. I will not place a physical sell stop because I don’t want to be taken out of the position on false market maker moves. I reevaluate my position every night and decide if I need to sell “at the market” the next morning if it is below $13.79 or nearing the sell point that I established. Last week, the stock fell to $14.11 intraday giving most investors a scare but managed to close up at $15.18. This is the exact reason why I keep mental stops instead of physical stops. I only place physical stops when I will be away from a computer for an extended period of time or if my gains are sufficient and I want to protect them at a specific number, then I don’t care if the stop is triggered intraday.

I will not change my mental sell stop of $13.79 until ACW gains at least 20% from my buy point. If that time arrives, I will move my sell stop about 12% below the current levels. In this case, the numbers would read like this: ACW would be up 20% near $18 and my trailing mental stop would be $15.84. If the stock approaches this area or violates the number, I will sell “at the market” the following morning. Remember, circumstances play a big role in each decision. If outside events are influencing the stock, I must take that into consideration and base my decision on the additional information.

If ACW starts to use a moving average as support, my mental sell stop will always be slightly below the moving average, again giving it room to breathe. If any of my stocks gain 50%, I start to place a physical stop about 10%-12% below the current levels to protect the gains.

Finally, if I have not been sold out of a stock but I start to see the stock act in different ways than it was while up-trending, I will sell immediately (examples can be a climax run, slicing a major moving average, breaking a strong trend-line or possibly a string of weaker earnings reports). Use discretion and develop a feel for what works best for you.

If Accuride (ACW) tanks today and I am forced to sell even though I only purchased the stock in the past week, I will not allow it to hurt my emotional balance and I will move on to the next opportunity because I know investing is about percentages and NOT about being right on every trade.

Below are some basic sell rules that I follow:

Sell all stocks that fall 7-10% below your purchase price. Don’t ever allow a 10% loss double into a 20% loss because of stubbornness or the emotion of hope (hoping the stock will rebound). It is perfectly fine if the stock is sold out for a 7% loss and then it rebounds and you feel you would like to take another position in this stock.

If you feel something is wrong with your stock and the action looks odd but you are only down a few percent, sell anyway, why take a chance, especially in a bad market environment. This is the only form of insurance in the stock market.

When a stock has been is a solid up-trend and then it starts to move sideways, this is referred to as churning. This can be the first signal to the end of the run. This may serve as the perfect time to lock in your profits and watch from the sideline, remember, you can always get back in.

Learn to sell into strength; you can never go wrong by selling into strength before the stock peaks. No one and I mean NO ONE gets out at the top and if they do, they were lucky. No one and I mean NO ONE goes broke by taking a profit after an extended run or up-trend! Don’t allow the emotion of GREED to steer your ship, take profits when necessary, don’t get greedy.

Stop Loss, Trailing Stops and Market Makers:

Many investors try to lock in gains or prevent losses with a predetermined stop loss or trailing stop loss. This is an excellent tool but has become an easy target for market makers and program traders to manipulate.

For example: You buy XYZ stock at $50 and enter an automatic stop loss at $45 to protect your portfolio from extensive losses.

Market makers can see this entered stop loss and play the market in order to wipe out your shares and pick them up at cheaper prices. They can bid down the price to $44.50 or so and grab your shares and then bid up the price back to the $50 range – all in one day. I have personally seen intraday manipulation of stocks being bid down, only to close for minor losses or slight gains. Accuride is a great example from last Thursday as it was down over 6% intraday and then closed up over 1%.

A trailing stop is a feature that allows the investor to determine a % point at which their stock is sold.

Example: If you buy 100 shares of a stock at $50, you can select a percentage at which your stock is sold, this percentage follows the stock up in price. So if you bought 100 shares of XYZ at $50 and put your percentage at 8%, your stock will be sold at $46...BUT, if your stock advances to $60, then you will have a new sell point at $55.20 (8% below the high of $60). In other words, your sell stop trails or follows your stock without you having to cancel out and resetting a new sell stop each time your stock goes up in price.

How do you protect your portfolio without letting market makers trip your stop loss for a premature exit?

I use a predetermined mental stop loss that is only implemented after the market is closed for the day. I take a look at each holding and determine if it should be sold at the market or intraday the next trading day. I predetermined my sell level when I bought the stock, so most emotions are already taken out of the equation.

If you invest in quality stocks with solid fundamentals and technicals, there is no need to constantly worry about huge losses in the matter of one or two days, barring a tragic event within that particular company.

Finally, Post Trade Analysis:

Post trade analysis could possibly be the most important key to unlocking your investment potential. Every investor must analyze their past trades. By analyzing your past trades, you can focus in on your mistakes and pinpoint the downfalls in your methods.

Ask yourself:

How many stocks have you bought in the past 12 months?
How many went up?
How many went down?
How long did you hold these stocks?
Why did the stock work?
Where did it go wrong?
Did the fundamentals breakdown?
Did the stock send key technical red flags before a major collapse?

Most investors skip post analysis and consider it a waste of time to look at the past. Many investors are scared to look at past trades; they don’t want to see the extent of the damage. An investor will never be able to take a step forward without looking over the past success and failures in their portfolio. In order to focus on weak areas in your investing methods, post analysis is the place to start. Post analysis with the aid of charts will show you if you bought too soon, sold too late, sold too early or bought the wrong stock all together. Print out a chart of all stocks that you sold and plot your key entry and exit points. Look for base building, accumulation, distribution or any other components that help shape your final decisions. Compare your stocks to sister stocks and see if similar patterns occurred. Did any sister stocks start to rise or fall before your stock? Post analysis is like looking in the mirror; you have no where to hide and only the truth to seek.

After several post analysis sessions, you will notice similarities in your buying and selling patterns. Similar mistakes or successes will become apparent. Focus on both the good and the bad. This post analysis allows the educated investor to suck in their pride and take responsibility for their own actions.

This is the starting point to correcting mistakes and growing your strengths!

About author:
Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com. Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We offer an extended no obligation monthly trial period starting immediately with two free weeks. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Published under category : Stock Trading Tips

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Charts

2006-04-11T17:02:00.000-07:00

by Steven T. Ng

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence charts, or MACD charts for short, are a technical indicator that is derived from the more simple moving average.

The MACD charts are oscillating indicators, meaning that they move above and below a centerline or zero point. As with other oscillating and momentum indicators, a very high value indicates that the stock is overbought and will likely drop soon. Conversely, a consistently low value indicates that the stock is oversold and is likely to climb.

THE 12-DAY AND 26-DAY EMAS

The MACD charts are based on 3 exponential moving averages, or EMA. These averages can be of any period, though the most common combination, and the one we will focus on, are the 12-26-9 MACD charts.

There are 2 parts to the MACD. We will focus first on the first part, which is based on the stock's 12-Day and 26-Day EMA. The 12-Day EMA is the faster EMA while the 26-Day is slower.

The logic behind using a faster and slower EMA is that this can be used to gauge momentum. When the faster (in this case 12-Day) EMA is above the slower 26-Day EMA, the stock is in an uptrend, and vice versa. If the 12-Day EMA is increasing much faster than the 26-Day EMA, the uptrend is becoming stronger and more pronounced. Conversely, when the 12-Day EMA starts slowing down, and the 26-Day begins to near it, the stock movement's momentum is beginning to fade, indicating the end of the uptrend.

THE MACD LINE

The MACD charts use these 2 EMA by taking the difference between them and plotting a new line. Very often, this new line is depicted as a thick black line in the middle chart.

When the 12-Day and 26-Day EMA are at the same value, the MACD line is at zero. When the 12-Day EMA is higher than the 26-Day EMA, the MACD line will be in positive territory. The further the 12-Day EMA is from the 26-Day EMA, the further the MACD line is from its centerline or zero value.

THE 9-DAY EMA

This line on its own doesn't tell much more than a moving average. It becomes more useful when we take into account its 9-Day EMA. This is the third value when we talk of 12-26-9 MACD charts. Note that the 9-Day EMA is an EMA of the MACD line, not of the stock price. This EMA (the thin blue line alongside the MACD line) acts like a normal EMA and smoothes the MACD line.

The 9-Day EMA acts as a signal line or trigger line for the MACD. When the MACD line crosses above the 9-Day EMA from below, it indicates that the downtrend is over and a new uptrend is forming. Time to consider bullish strategies. Conversely, when the MACD line drops below its 9-Day EMA, a new downtrend is forming and its time to implement bearish strategies.

THE MACD HISTOGRAM

So far, we have covered the most simple form of interpreting the MACD charts. We now look at the MACD histogram. Just as the MACD line is the difference between the 12-Day and 26-Day EMA, the MACD histogram is basically the difference between the MACD line and its 9-Day EMA.

So when the MACD line crosses above its 9-Day EMA, the MACD histogram will cross above zero. In order words, a bullish signal is obtained when the MACD histogram crosses above zero, and a bearish signal is obtained when it crosses below zero.

POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE

The MACD histogram forms valleys and peaks. Sometimes, multiple peaks are formed, with each subsequent peak becoming lower and lower. These progressively lower peaks constitue what is known as a negative divergence. A negative divergence on the MACD histogram is an indication that the current uptrend might reverse in the near future. This could happen even though the actual stock price seems to be making higher peaks in the chart. Basically, the MACD histogram negative divergence is a warning that the stock might turn down soon.

Similarly, the positive divergence on the MACD histogram predicts the subsequent uptrend. However, sometimes these divergences can create false alarms. If we follow these signals, we could have bought into a downtrend.

As such, I would like to remind you that individual indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) charts should not be used on their own, but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types, in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms.

About author:
Steven is the webmaster of http://www.option-trading-guide.com If you would like to learn more about Option Trading or Technical Analysis, do visit for various strategies and resources to help your stock market investments.

Published under category : Stock Technical Analysis

Market Psychology

2006-04-10T14:06:00.000-07:00

by Al Thomas

Today we are inundated with tons of information about the economy, stocks, government agencies and foreign governments. They show us charts and graphs of the increase/decrease in oil production over the last 5 years, the amount of maple syrup produced in Vermont for the past century, the time it takes to bounce a signal off the moon and all kinds of other nonsense that we can live without. The talking heads on the investment programs, both radio and TV, tell us how this is going to affect the price of certain stocks and the market in general. Well, maybe.

When you step back to get a better view of the market because the trees are in the way you really get a different view. No matter what stock or mutual fund you own there is one important factor that is causing all of them to change. It is the mass thinking of all the people who own equities of any type. The stock market is a reflection of this mass thinking and causes changes in human behavior. This mass thinking does not necessarily reflect what the economy is doing at any specific moment.

Take the euphoria of stock buyers at the end of 1999 and the beginning of 2000. All the mass psychology was bullish and everyone knew the market was going to go higher. The economy knew better and stocks headed down. The market was a reflection of what we could not see.

Currently many people are becoming bearish and think the market is headed lower, but no one really knows until after the fact. It is dangerous to be either bullish or bearish at this moment. So what is the best course of action when you are not sure of what to do with your money? Keep in mind that protection of your capital, especially your retirement money, is a prime consideration. If you own a stock now that has been going up you don’t want to sell it, but you can protect yourself against loss and lock in profit by placing an Open Stop-Loss Order with your broker. Keep moving the stop up as the stock goes higher.

If you have a stock or fund that is going down you must either sell out or place an order to get out if it goes down further. Usually 10% is about right. If your stock is $40 place your stop at $36.

If the mass psychology becomes too negative it can cause massive selling and even the best equities get flushed. All boats go down when the tides goes out. If you do not have a loss limit in place at all times you will lose your investment capital. The example of this was what happened when the World Trade Center was destroyed. Selling was caused by mass psychology and had little to do with valuation.

It is a herd instinct and you don’t want to be led to slaughter will all the other dumb animals. Protect your money. Put in a stop today.

About author:
Al Thomas' book, "If It Doesn't Go Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousands of people make money and keep their profits with his simple 2-step method. Read the first chapter at http://www.mutualfundmagic.com and discover why he's the man that Wall Street does not want you to know. Copyright 2005 al@mutualfundstrategy.com; 1-888-345-7870

Published under category : Stock Trading Psychology

Long-Term Investment In Today's Market?

2006-04-10T12:12:00.000-07:00

by Willard Michlin

The stock market is very unstable at this time going up and down while interest rates are so low you want to be a borrower and not a lender. Would you like some suggestions on how can you get the most out of low interest rates while being assured your principal will not disappear while you are trying to make some money? Of course, there is always the danger of borrowing the money and then spending it just because it is there.

So, would you also like to know what is the best way to borrow money at today’s low rates without spending it? Buy real estate. Not any real estate but real estate that will hold its value, even if single family houses go down. It is apartment buildings. Because apartment rents are still going up, the value of apartment buildings have the best chance of appreciating while everything else goes down.

Low interest rates mean that you can have a positive cash flow at real estate purchase prices you would have lost your shirt on, even two years ago. Rates are currently 4.5% to 6.5% interest rates when we used to pay 9% for apartment loans just a few years ago. Apartments have become a better investment for two main reasons. First, carrying costs (interest costs) have been going down. Second, income has been going up, substantially. Can things be better than this? YES IT CAN.

I have developed two programs. One is to take people with a small net worth and build an estate or self directed IRA (tax free retirement plan) that is worth up to $800,000 in 15 years and that generates an income of $60,000 per year with both still going up after that.

For those that can put together $100,000 to start I have developed a second program where the numbers come in at $1,300,000 net worth, with a $100,000 annual net profit and in only 10 years. Unbelievable? And, with low risk as well! This comes out to be a 25% annual return with no roller coaster stock market ride. I figured out how to do it and it really works. I have done it before and I know many now retired senior citizens that have done it in the past.

The problem today with most 50+-year-old baby boomers is that they never got started in build a retirement fund. So now, instead of having the normal 30 years to build a retirement fund, they need to be there in 10-15 years. It might take one year of financial hell to come up with some cash. (That means no money for anything except accumulating cash) But after that, it can be a sweet painless ride to wealth. The best part is the possibility of failure is less than 10%, if my steps are followed

First: The money is not touched for 10 years. That is why a trust fund, IRA or a self directed retirement plan is a great place to put this.

Second: I have taken my 30 years of real estate experience to develop exactly which properties will give the biggest appreciation and cash flow and also be the best risks. Interestingly, almost everyone I talk to picks the wrong locations to buy until they hear the whole list of criteria.

Now that I have told you the lazy man’s way to riches, let me tell you the downside. You have to have the correct timing on your purchase. In Dec 2001, everything was in place to do these two programs, in Los Angeles County. Unfortunately, by July 2002, the numbers didn’t work any more. They did still work in Florida, for example, but not in Los Angeles. What happens is that prices go up after the rates go down. The seller sees how good a deal the buyer can get and raises the asking prices. So! Your timing to start these programs is very important. Do not be discouraged, though. If the numbers do not work today, it will work sometime tomorrow. The system is sound, and since we are talking long-term wealth accumulation, a little patience can go a long way.

About The Author:
Willard Michlin is an Investor, California Real Estate Broker, Accountant, Financial Distress Consultant, Well known Public speaker and Administrative/Business Consultant. He can be contacted at his Ventura, California office by calling 805-529-9854 or by e-mail at kismetrei@earthlink.net. See other article by Willard at http://www.kismetgroup.com; kismetrei@earthlink.net

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

The Secret Method to Selecting a Winning Trading System

2006-04-07T17:52:00.000-07:00

by David Jenyns

Every successful trader has a winning system. There are of course, as many systems out there, as there are traders. Some systems get you to buy on strength and sell on weakness others do the opposite.

Some investors succeed as value investors , a la Warren Buffet ; others make their millions in momentum trading . I have even heard of an astrologist who uses the stars to trade profitably. Although, there are a variety of methods, the point I am trying to illustrate here is this: there are many ways to profit from the markets, but you ultimately must devise a system that is your own, because the personalization will act as a motivational discipline to stick with the plan.

There is however, one common element amongst all successful traders...they have a systematic way they approach the market. This approach is unique. In reality, no two people have exactly the same amount of money, tolerance for risk, personality, time or experience. Therefore, the key to success is to design a system that is suited for you.

Many traders fail because they do not assess how well a trading system matches their temperament. Instead, they chase fads, searching for the "Holy Grail" of trading success; or they waste their money on the latest investing software or buying up the tapes of the latest self-proclaimed stock market guru.

The fact is there is no perfect system. Successful investors succeed because they choose a system that they feel comfortable with, not one that claims to be the current trend. A cool, disciplined trader will make money with an "average" system, while a nervous, arbitrary trader will wreck a "brilliant" system.

The key is to develop a methodology that maximizes your strengths and minimizes your weaknesses. Nevertheless, how do you do that? First, define your objectives.

Ask yourself these questions:

1. Am I designing a trading plan for cash flow or capital growth?
2. Do I want to trade part time or full time?
3. How much money can I work with?
4. What annual rate of return do I want? (Note: the higher the return, usually the higher the risk).

Decisions such as these will have the largest impact on the style of your trading system.

For example, if your goal is cash flow and low risk, buying or selling at extreme levels (overbought/oversold) is an unlikely style. If your goals center on quick capital growth, high returns and high risk, then bottom picking strategies and gap trading may be your style.

I had one client that was a wiz at buying and selling on eBay. This person was a beginner so I suggested buying the trade closer to the 52-week low, then selling the trade when it foresaw a profit.

Entries and exits must be precise and must follow a strict set of rules.

Styles range from aggressive day traders looking to scalp few point gains to investors looking to capitalize on long-term macro economic trends. In between, there are a whole host of possible combinations including swing traders, position traders, aggressive growth investors, value investors and contrarians.

Moreover, your style will depend on your level of commitment and experience. Day traders are likely to pursue an aggressive style with high activity levels. The goals would focus on quick trades, small profits and very tight stop-loss levels. For this, the trader uses intraday charts to provide timely entry and exit points. A high level of commitment, focus and energy would be required.

On the other hand, position traders are likely to use intraday charts and pursue 1-8 week price movements. Focused goals on short to intermediate price movements and the level of commitment, while still substantial, would be less than a day trader.

With this in mind, be sure to define your trading objectives as best as you can. Unless your system matches your own criteria, you will never make big profits. You need to ask yourself the simple question: "I am trading in the market because I want to __________"...

Answer this and you are well on your way to setting your portfolio objectives.

A Stock Market Investment Plan that Never Lets You Down

2006-04-06T07:48:00.000-07:00

by James Mariott

The bulls and bears of the stock market are both tempting and scary to the investors. Speculators are enchanted by the stock market’s potential to help them in making quick money with a big M. While those who tread with care and caution, often shy away for fear of losing. However, the stock market is not all about speculative gains or black Tuesdays. It is a place where committed companies look for raising money to fund their activities. Serious investors can actually create wealth not only for themselves, but also for the companies and the nation. A wise way to invest in the stock market is to empower your self with information. You have to know and learn about the company you invest in, from past records and future plans.

Irrespective of what the Wall Street Gurus predict or what the economic indicators like Dow Jones Average say, a simple and foolproof way of knowing that a company is doing well is to keep a track of how much dividend income does it pay to its share holders every year. If the dividend rates have been rising steadily every year, you know you have a safe bet. To benefit from the future prospects of such companies, it is a good idea to rollback the returns into the company. Which means, instead of adding the dividends to your savings, you can invest them in the shares of the same company. That way, you can ensure that the dividends you receive are always higher than what you got last, with a larger number of shares getting added to your investment portfolio every time.

With this kind of an assured investment plan in place, investors with a gambling streak begin to think beyond making a quick gain. While those who were afraid to take risks get wiser.

Let us find out why companies that give ever-increasing cash dividend income are a good choice for investment:

Your Share Holding Goes Up And So does Your Dividend Income.

Your income begins to escalate with your owning more shares every year and the dividend income rising correspondingly.

Your Dividend Income Increases Even If Stock Prices don’t.

You are no more at the mercy of the market. Irrespective of what your shares are worth, you keep earning additional cash dividends. In fact, even if the market price dips, you are still at an advantage, as that allows you to reinvest to purchase more shares.

You are not hit by Inflation.

With the dividend income rising every year, you offset the effects of a rising inflation. This particularly provides relief to people who have retired and depend on a regular cash inflow to help them meet their expenses. At this stage one need not rollback the investment into further shares, instead, the cash dividend can be used as a kind of regular pension money.

Start Young

The ingenuity behind this investment strategy is that it protects you from the fluctuations that generally occur in the market. A lower stock market rate only means you buy more to increase your dividends more. It is advisable to start this strategy early in life while you are still working, so that your wealth builds up gradually and constantly over the years. And you are assured of a regular income, as you grow older.

Remember, the success of this proven investment plan depends significantly on the track record of the company you invest in. It should be one that declares a higher dividend at the end of each financial period. A simple way to find that out would be to calculate the dividend yield. You can do that by dividing the annual dividend per share by the price per share. Of course, no investment can be totally free of risks, neither is this one. Keep an eye on the dividend yield, and if that dips, it’s a signal for you to opt out of the investment.

About author:
James Marriott is a finance writer with more than 15 years of experience in writing financial content, including those related to credit cards, mortgages, stocks, investments, and funds. He has been with RNCOS, a premier financial writing services company, for 2 years as head of financial writing. He is also a regular financial columnist with renowned business journals. For your comments on the article and further financial assistance, please contact our staff writer at info@rncos.com.

Bollinger Bands Strategies

2006-04-04T10:01:00.000-07:00

by Steven T. Ng

The Bollinger Band theory is designed to depict the volatility of a stock. It is quite simple, being composed of a simple moving average, and its upper and lower "bands" that are 2 standard deviations away. Standard deviations are a statistical tool used to contain the majority of movement or "deviation" around an average value. Bear in mind that when you use the Bollinger Band theory, it only works as a gauge or guide, and should be use with other indicators.

Normally, we use the 20-Day simple moving average and its standard deviations to create Bollinger Bands. Strategies some investors use include shorter- or longer-term Bollinger Bands depending on their needs. Shorter-term Bollinger Bands strategies (less than 20-Days) are more sensitive to price fluctuations, while longer-term Bollinger Bands (more than 20-Days) are more conservative.

So how do we use the Bollinger Band theory?

The Bollinger Band theory will not indicate exactly which point to buy or sell an option or stock. It is meant to be used as a guide (or band) with which to gauge a stock's volatility.

When a stock's price is very volatile, the Bollinger Bands will be far apart. In technical indicator charts, this is depicted like a widening gap. On the other hand, when there is little price fluctuation, hence low volatility, the Bollinger Bands will be in a tight range. This is depicted as narrow "lanes" along the chart.

As for how we use the Bollinger Band theory, here are a couple of guidelines.

History shows that a stock usually doesn't stay in a narrow trading range for long, as can be gauged using the Bollinger Bands. Strategies include relating the width with the length of the bands. The narrower the bands, the shorter the time it will last. Therefore, when a stock starts to trade within narrow Bollinger Bands, we know that there will be a substantial price fluctuation in the near future. However, we do not know which direction the stock will move, hence the need to use Bollinger Bands strategies together with other technical indicators.

When the stock starts to become very volatile, it is depicted in the chart by the actual stock price "hugging" or staying very close to either the upper or lower Bollinger Bands, with the Bands widening substantially. The wider the Bands are, the more volatile the price is, and the more likely the price will fall back towards the moving average.

When the actual stock price moves away from the Bands back towards the moving average, it can be taken as a signal that the price trend has slowed, and will move back towards the moving average. However, it is common for the price to bounce off the Bands a second time before a confirmed move towards the moving average.

As usual, and for the Bollinger Band theory in particular, it should be noted that individual indicators should not be used on their own, but rather with one or two additional indicators of different types, in order to confirm any signals and prevent false alarms.

Steven is the webmaster of http://www.option-trading-guide.com If you would like to learn more about Option Trading or Technical Analysis, do visit for various strategies and resources to help your stock market investments.

Published under category : Stock Technical Analysis

Investing in Cyclical Stocks

2006-04-03T10:47:00.000-07:00

Predicting an upswing can be awfully difficult, especially since many cyclical stocks start doing well many months before the economy comes out of a recession. Buying requires research and courage. On top of that, investors must get their timing perfect.

Investment guru Jim Slater offers investors some help. He studied how cyclical industries fared against key economic variables over a 15-year period. Data showed that falling interest rates are a key factor behind cyclicals' most successful years. Since falling rates normally stimulate the economy, cyclical stocks fare best when interest rates are falling. Conversely, in times of rising interest rates, cyclical stocks fare poorly. But Slater warns us to be careful: the first year of falling interest rates is also unlikely to be the right time to buy. He advises that it's best to buy in the last year of falling interest rates, just before they begin to rise again. This is when cyclicals tend to outperform growth stocks.

Before selecting a cyclical stock, it makes sense to pick an industry that is due for a bounce. In that industry, choose companies that look especially attractive. The biggest companies are often the safest. Smaller companies carry more risk, but they can also produce the most impressive returns.

Many investors look for companies with low P/E multiples, but for investing in cyclical stocks this strategy may not work well. Earnings of cyclical stocks fluctuate too much to make P/E a meaningful measure; moreover, cyclicals with low P/E multiples can frequently turn out to be a dangerous investment. A high P/E normally marks the bottom of the cycle, whereas a low multiple often signals the end of an upturn.

For investing in cyclicals, price-to-book multiples are better to use than the P/E. Prices at a discount to the book value offer an encouraging sign of future recovery. But when recovery is already well underway, these stocks typically fetch several times the book value. For instance, at the peak of a cycle, semiconductor manufacturers trade at three or four times book value.

Correct investment timing differs among cyclical sectors. Petrochemicals, cement, pulp and paper, and the like tend to move higher first. Once the recovery looks more certain, cyclical technology stocks, like semiconductors, normally follow. Tagging along near the end of the cycle are usually consumer companies, such as clothing stores, auto makers and airlines.

Insider buying, arguably, offers the strongest signal to buy. If a company is at the bottom of its cycle, directors and senior management will, by purchasing stock, demonstrate their confidence in the company fully recovering.

Finally, keep a close eye on the company's balance sheet. A strong cash position can be very important, especially for investors who buy recovery stocks at the very bottom, where economic conditions are still poor. The company having plenty of cash gives these investors more time to confirm whether their strategy wisdom was a wise one.

Published under category : Stock Trading

The Importance of Using Stop Loss Orders When Spread Trading the Financial Markets

2006-04-03T08:35:00.000-07:00

by Ben Catt

A Guide to Using Stop Loss Orders

Stop losses are market orders designed to allow you to limit your losses.

When you place a stop loss you are instructing the spread betting company or stock broker to cut your position when it reaches a certain loss level (or in some cases, profit level - more later).

Therefore, a stop loss will automatically close your trade if the market reaches a certain point.

For example: You have bought £1 a point of the German DAX at 4200. The most you are willing to risk is £150 on this trade so you place your stop at 4050. If the market trades at 4050 you are taken out immediately and you lose £150.

Normal Stop Losses

These are free but with this type of stop you can sometimes lose more than you specified when you placed the order.

Sometimes your stop loss order may not be filled at the level you wanted i.e. you may be taken out at 4046 instead of 4050.

The bookmaker will attempt to get you out of the trade at the price you specify but when the market is moving very quickly it may not be possible.

This is called "slippage" and tends to happen in a fast moving market.

You can also lose more than you wished if the market you are trading "gaps".

For example: You have opened a long trade on the Dow Jones for £1 a point at 10000. As you were willing to risk £200, you placed a stop at 9800. Over the next couple of days, the Dow moves down slightly to 9900 and at the end of trading on the third day it is sat at 9890.

The next day some very disappointing economic figures are released and the Dow opens well down at 9700. As this is past your stop loss, the bookmaker closes your bet at market price.

Your trade is closed at 9690, 110 points below your stop loss so your loss is now £310 rather than the £200 you were willing to lose.

Guaranteed Stop Losses

You can ensure you are closed out at the exact price you specify by using a Controlled Risk or Guaranteed stop loss order

These types of stops are designed as a type of insurance to guarantee that your stop loss order is filled at the exact price you specify.

Even if the market you are trading gaps 1000 points beyond your stop, if you are using a guaranteed stop loss you will still only lose what you have already decided is an acceptable loss.

You pay a little extra for a guaranteed stop. In the Dow example above, a guaranteed stop would cost roughly 4 times the stake (4 x £1 = £4). Usually the premium is taken from your account balance when setting the stop loss level or is added to the spread.

Although they do reduce your account balance, guaranteed stops can save you a great deal of money and are certainly recommended if you have a small capital base.

Some Pointers About Stop Losses

- Never move your stop if you think it may be hit. If you move the stop further down to try and avoid being taken out you will simply lose more money.

- You don't have to close your entire position with a stop loss order. If you wish, you can set up 2 or more stops. For a £1 per point trade you could set a stop 100 points away which reduces you exposure by 50p a point. Another could be placed 200 points away to take you completely out of the trade.

- It is better to let the stop take you out of the market and preserve the rest of your capital than to try and stay in the trade by moving the stop.

- You can lock in profits by using a stop loss. If you were to enter a long trade on the Dow at 10000 with a stop at 9900 and the Dow moves up to 10200 you could then move your stop to 10100 to lock in 100 points profit.

- Never trade without a stop loss, even if it is just a normal stop. To stay in the trading game you must preserve your capital and huge unexpected losses will certainly not help. See the Money Management section for more details.

About author:
Ben Catt is an active financial trader and runs a free website containing hints, tips and information about tax-free financial spread trading and betting in the UK. The site can be found at http://www.FinancialSpreadTrading.co.uk. He also runs a business opportunity information site - http://www.BizOppsUK.com

Published under category : Stock Trading

Cyclical Stock: an Introduction

2006-04-01T17:46:00.000-08:00

Making money in Stock is a risky but interesting activities, more than just try to catch some profits, it's a fascinating advanture.. Think of being on a Ferris wheel: one minute you're on top of the world, the next you're at the bottom - and eager to head back up again. Investing in cyclical companies is much the same, except the the time it takes to go up and down, known as a business cycle, can last years.

[ What Are Cyclical Stocks? ]
Identifying these companies is fairly straightforward. They often exist along industry lines. Automobile manufacturers, airlines, furniture, steel, paper, heavy machinery, hotels and expensive restaurants are the best examples. Profits and share prices of cyclical companies tend to follow the up and downs of the economy; that's why they are called cyclicals. When the economy booms, as it did in the go-go '90s, sales of things like cars, plane tickets and fine wines tend to thrive. On the other hand, cyclicals are prone to suffer in economic downturns.

Given the up-and-down nature of the economy and, consequently, that of cyclical stocks, successful cyclical investing requires careful timing. It is possible to make a lot of money if you time your way into these stocks at the bottom of a down cycle just ahead of an upturn. But investors can also lose substantial amounts if they buy at the wrong point in the cycle.

[ Comparing Cyclicals to Growth Stocks ]
All companies do better when the economy is growing, but good growth companies, even in the worst trading conditions, still manage to turn in increased earnings per share year after year. In a downturn, growth for these companies may be slower than their long-term average, but it will still be an enduring feature.

Cyclicals, by contrast, respond more violently than growth stocks to economic changes. They can suffer mammoth losses during severe recessions and can have a hard time surviving until the next boom. But, when things do start to change for the better, dramatic swings from losses to profits can often far surpass expectations. Performance can even outpace growth stocks by a wide margin.

Published under category : Stock Basic

Buying Stocks and the Importance of Correct Timing

2006-03-30T16:20:00.000-08:00

by Chris Perruna

An investor can find and research the best stock on the market, one with huge potential but if the general market indices are negative, it will most likely be the wrong time to buy. A stock with tremendous accelerating earnings, rising sales, an up-trending chart pattern and a strong industry group may sound excellent to buy but will mean absolutely nothing if the market is positioned to move in the opposite direction of your expectations. As soon as a stock is purchased, the time comes for an investor to make a decision to hold or to sell. If the position shows a profit, hold as your judgment is correct. If the position shows a loss, cut it quickly and don’t rationalize the situation before it doubles in size. Timing will play an important role in determining if you are right or wrong.

Losers must be cut quickly, long before they materialize into enormous financial disasters. They company and stock may not be a loser but rather your timing may be premature to a strong movement, forcing you to sell on a pullback. After a stock is cut from your portfolio, the transaction must be forgotten about and eliminated from your subconscious mind and/or emotional bank. The trade must be studied to capture the true essence of your mistake but the specific security involved must be blocked from any sentimental attachments, allowing you to consider reinstating the position at a higher level. This repurchase may take place immediately or well into the future but the important fact is that you were wrong with the timing on the initial position. The timing, also known as the ‘M’ in CANSLIM by William O’Neil, may have been wrong even though all fundamental and technical criteria related to the individual stock seemed to be perfect.

A quote from the great Gerald Loeb: “Cutting losses is the one and only rule of the markets that can be taught with the assurance that it is always the correct thing to do.”

The wisdom shared by Loeb is easier said than done. Humans like to take profits and hate taking losses or admitting that they were wrong. Pride and ego distorts the clear thinking process that every investor must posses when following clear cut rules that provides insurance to their cash stake. Even tougher, humans refuse to repurchase anything at a higher price that they sold it previously. As Loeb states, only logic, reason, information and experience can be listened to if failure is to be avoided.

It is advisable to make a “test buy” in a shaky or unstable market which allows the investor to assess the general conditions with minimal risk but still maintain an emotional attachment. If the position goes bad, a small loss will be realize but the damages will be limited and the investor’s pride and ego can be repaired rather quickly. In a sense, the investor was half right by only initiating a partial position also known as a “test buy”. If the market was trending up, a “test buy” would not have to be established as the market direction would have been clear from the beginning.

When it comes to timing, an uneducated investor may realize better gains during a solid bull market based on pure luck than a seasoned investor will return in a sideways or unstable market. Following the trend will be the most successful route to consistent profits over the long haul. By watching the general market indicators, such as price, volume and daily new highs, an investor should know exactly what type of environment they are trading. The most important factor weighing on the stock market is the presence of public psychology, even more so than any fundamentals that the most intelligent academic analyst can compute. Technical analysis along with confirmation of the market trend allows us to see the combined thought process of the general public and tells us if the timing is right to buy or short a specific stock, regardless of the fundamentals.

In conclusion, we must understand that certain situations are only applicable during specific times. Buying leading stocks during a down trend is a sure way to multiple losses that are cut quickly. Shorting stocks during a raging bull is another sure way to financial disaster and margin calls. Don’t get discouraged if you take a few small losses consecutively as this is your rules telling you to stay out of the market at this time. The timing may be off even though the stock and research is favorable. Why would you swim upstream to reach your destination if you could jump in a boat and row downstream with the current another day? Before you ever start to immerse yourself into researching a stock to purchase, make sure you know the exact environment of the market and determine if it coincides with your objective. If it doesn’t, get ready to get slaughtered, especially if you don’t follow strict rules to cut all losses quickly.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

About author:
Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Investment Series - Short Term Trading Battles Long Term Trading

2006-03-28T01:29:00.000-08:00

by Jason Ng

Many people have this wrong perception... that short term trading strategy is risky and long term trading strategy is safe.

Now, let me put this in an analogy. The capital markets is like a huge ocean and your trading strategy is like a boat on this ocean. Some think that the slow and steady ship is safer than the fast and furious speed boat, right? Now, if the speed boat runs a 20% chance of capsizing but takes only 1 day to reach your destination, wouldn't it be safer than to stay on the ship that takes 1 year to reach your destination, 90% safe from capsize but runs the unpredictable nature of the sea and its weather?

The stock markets is as unpredictable as the weather today. Long term trading strategy for a 10% to 20% gain a year might really be something thought of in the industrial era where people love steady, long term growth. The world today can potentially be thrown into complete chaos at an instance. Who says 911 cannot happen again? A long term trading portfolio can be wiped out overnight suddenly and all you wanted was to make 20% a year out of it. No long term trading strategy today is completely hedged to downside. A long term trading strategy would really glue you to the news.

Short term trading strategy runs extremely low market exposure for as high as a 75% winning rate for profits per win of as high as 100% these days! The amazing results of short term trading strategy have been made possible by the creation of more and more sophisticated financial instruments like options and futures. It may be riskier per trade than long term trading but who needs a 100% chance at a 2% profit per month when we can get a 75% chance at a 100% profit in a just few days?

So how do we manage the 25% chance of losing in short term trading? That's where a smart portfolio management strategy comes in. It has been said that even if you know nothing about picking stocks, a smart portfolio management strategy will be able to help you win money on an overall basis picking stocks at random.

So, what form of trading has the lowest mathematical risk? In my opinion, it is a Short Term trading strategy backed by a sound portfolio management policy. Such a short term trading strategy gives you predictable, high returns in short periods of time at minimum market exposure.

Author`s note: For the Best in short term trading strategy, please visit www.MastersoEquity.com

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Psychology - How to Reduce Negative Thoughts Relating to Trading?

2006-03-27T09:11:00.000-08:00

by David Jenyns

The thinking process of the brain relating to the psychology of trading involves:

-- Beliefs
-- Feelings
-- Values
-- Dispositions and
-- Faith

The positive or negative energy brings power to a person's actions, which ultimately determines whether a person is a winner or a loser. You can change for the better or for the worst. The old saying goes: For as a man thinks in his heart so he is.

-- Trading is the most difficult money making skill to master, because the market represents the aspects of people and life.

It is necessary to scratch the surface and explain what psychology means and how it relates to trading. Without doing so, you will not understand why this element is important to your trading plan.

The psychology aspects of people are separated into two categories:

1. Believers (the first category) who support the belief that something in the realms of other dimensions in the universe exist and
2. Non-believers (the second category) who are convinced that reality is the only dimension of life.

It is (the first category) that usually uses both sides of the brain to think and has access to a third component of the brain (faith) that is dead when the person is born. (The second category) only uses a small portion of the brain’s power. While (the second category) may or may not use both side of the brain to function, the third part of the brain (faith) is completely dead and non-active.

See, the psychology of the brain is separated into three separate parts:

1. Faith
2. The thinking factor and
3. The emotional part.

If the thought, (focusing on the power of positive thinking), division of the brain controls the emotions, the individual maintains and develops discipline. If the emotions run the thinking part of the brain, the human being lives in a pure state of extreme confusion and disorder.

This is why the answer to success is understanding how the correct forms of discipline work - without it you will lose your shirt in the market.

Discipline in the following three areas of trading will ultimately determine your trading success.

* Training --- The successful trader never rests on past successes, or believes that his trading ability has peaked. He is always learning and practicing his decision-making skills, honing them until they become second nature. Then he can react faster than a speeding bullet, but with the benefit of superior human judgment.

* Trading Rules --- The successful trader develops set of trading rules - a plan - that he follows faithfully. This guides his decision-making at all times. If a trader's plan dictates that it is time to exit a stock, the trader will exit that trade and not wait a minute longer.

* Self-Control --- Successful traders display an extraordinary amount of self-control. Keeping emotions constantly in check, the disciplined trader is immune to the highs and lows that attend large market swings - whether panic, in a downturn, or of euphoria. I will show you how to learn the secrets of discipline.

Can You Learn Discipline?

The big question here is whether you can develop the discipline you do not have naturally. I believe the answer is "yes, you can," but you must have the necessary commitment to do so.

Ultimately, undisciplined behavior is going to be punished by the market.

Private traders who persevere and master self discipline, have external stimuli that will help the process. However, the market does not help as much as it might, because of the principle of random reinforcement. It is the market's tendency to reward bad behavior from time to time.

This crucial fact is one of the reasons why it takes so long to learn how to trade. You need to realize this: there is no point in having a system if you are not going to follow it. Follow and develop a routine of self-discipline and you will be successful in your trading ventures.

About author:
David Jenyns is recognized as the leading expert when it comes to designing profitable trading systems. His most recent course Ultimate Trading Systems is a step-by-step trading roadmap to designing profitable trading systems. Learn how *you* can become one of his students. @ http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com

Receive David's free trading tips: ==> http://www.ultimate-trading-systems.com/stocks.html

Published under category : Stock Trading Psychology

The Difference Between Growth and Value Stocks

2006-03-25T19:55:00.000-08:00

by Martin Lukac

What is the difference between a growth stock and a value stock? You've heard the terms in regards to value and growth investing, but you may not be sure what they exactly mean.

There are no hard, set definitions of growth and value stocks. But you will find that there are some criteria that generally defines these different stocks. The trouble often comes with the labeling of individual stocks that are near the edge of either definition.

Growth and value aren't just investing methods, but they are a way for investors to narrow the stocks they will invest in. History has shown us that they tend to take turns. There are periods when growth stocks do well, and other periods in which value stocks excel. The best investment strategy for the average investor is to hold both in a diversified portfolio.

Growth investing involves focusing on a stock that is growing with potential. Value investing seeks stocks that the market has under priced that have a potential for an increase.

Growth stocks usually feature strong growth rates. You want to see small companies with a 10% or higher growth rate for the past five years, while larger companies need to post a 5% to 7% growth rate. You also want to see a strong return on equity. Consider the earnings per share and the pre-tax margins. Look at the projected stock price for a clue of your potential returns.

When considering a growth stock, you need to use your judgment and common sense. The stock might not meet all of the criteria, but still show signs of being a solid growth stock. For example, it may not have a five-year look to see yet, but still be a significant player in a growing new industry.

Value stocks are often confused for cheap stocks, which they are not. However, you may find value stocks listed on the lists of the companies that have hit a 52-week low. Investors look at value stocks as the bargains of investing. The idea is to choose a stock that is under priced and wait for the market price correction. Consider the price earnings ratio, which should be in the bottom 10% of all companies. Look for a price to earning growth ration of less than 1. A good value stock has at least as much equity as debt, twice as much liability as assets and a share price at tangible book value or less.

While there are investors that tend to focus on one type of stock over another, a diversified portfolio of both growth and value stocks will provide you with good returns. If you are a beginning investor, this is an ideal combination. If you find that you have only of them in your holdings, you should consider the benefits of diversification.

About author:
Martin Lukac http://www.MartinLukac.com , represents http://www.RateEmpire.com , an Internet consumer banking marketplace. RateEmpire.com is a destination site of personal finance, investing, taxes and mortgage rates. RateEmpire.com provides mortgage guides and financial rates and information. RateEmpire.com also operates a financial portal #1 American Financial, found at http://www.1AmericanFinancial.com

Published under category : Stock Basic

Category: Stock Trading Tips

2006-03-22T12:10:00.000-08:00

How Do I Determine My Stock Sell Points?
This is an excellent question, if fact, it’s the toughest question that I face with every stock that I own. If I own a stock and it immediately goes down, this is the easiest decision I must make – SELL and sell fast. I know how to cut my losses and have been doing it for years. Yes,... [ read more ]

Six Things To Do In A High Risk Market
When the market turns against you, what should you do? Sell everything? We discussed that choice in a recent column. Selling everything draws your “line in the sand” and announces that you have determined there is no future for you in the market. There are other steps you can... [ read more ]

12 Basic Stock Investing Rules Every Successful Investor Should Follow
There are many important things you need to know to trade and invest successfully in the stock market or any other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based on many years of trading experience are enumerated below. 1. Buy low-sell high... [ read more ]

The 6 Best Times Of The Day To Trade A Stock
1. Post-opening buying: Let's say a stock rises 5 percent or more during the opening and there's no news about it. Typically, the stock will fall off after 30 minutes of trading. Why? Market makers may be trying to open the stock at an artificially high price to sell... [ read more ]

9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!
The following are a list of nine things you want to avoid at all costs. Anyone of them can literally destroy your financial dreams and goals! 1. Trading with money you can’t afford to lose. One of the greatest obstacles to successful trading is using money that you... [ read more ]

Category: Stock Trading

2006-03-20T09:57:00.000-08:00

How to Add Shares to a Profitable Position
Say you have a stock in your portfolio that is up 30% and it forms a base or consolidates to a moving average, and you want to add to this position. How would you go about doing this? There are a few ways that I have approached this situation. Some of you may agree and... [ read more ]

Easily Avoidable Stock Market and Investing Mistakes
If you are like many millions of Americans investing in the stock market sounds scary and comes with a lot of reservations. This is natural and as it should be since the stock market can be very risky. However by follow some simple steps, taking it slow and making... [ read more ]

Bull Call Spread
A bull call spread is when you have a long (buy) call option and a short (sell) call and you want the market to rise, hoping the options get exercised or are traded for a profit. Bullish call spread strategies have premium (cost) risk, but in the option world... [ read more ]

The Importance of Using Stop Loss Orders When Spread Trading the Financial Markets
A Guide to Using Stop Loss Orders. Stop losses are market orders designed to allow you to limit your losses. When you place a stop loss you are instructing the spread betting company or stock broker to cut your position when it reaches a certain loss level (or in some cases, profit... [ read more ]

High Price/Earnings Ratios and the Stock Market: a Personal Odyssey
After some forty years of banking and investments, I retired in 2001. But since I do not golf, I soon found retirement to be very boring. So I decided to return to the investment world after ten months. However, those ten months were not a complete waste of time, for I had... [ read more ]

Stock Trading: Why Averaging Down is a Losing Proposition
Many traders, especially those new to the markets, have a habit of "averaging in" to trades that aren`t going their way. The following reasoning is used: If this trade was a good entry at my earlier price, then it must be an even better entry now! On top of that, the trader... [ read more ]

Trading - A Probability Game
As a trader, you have to forget about finding a sure thing. You must accept the fact that the stock market can do anything at anytime. If you are not convinced, consider that there are millions of traders trading for institutions, funds, investors, swing traders, scalpers... [ read more ]

5 Steps To Researching a Stock Trade Before Investing
Once you determine which business cycle the economy is currently in you can start researching for a trade. It is best to have some sort of a system in place that will be used before EACH trade. Here is a simple 5 Step formula to help get you started... [ read more ]

Stop Orders In Your Stock Market Trading
So we are clear, a stop order is an order that becomes active once a certain price is exceeded. A buy stop order is an order to buy once price exceeds a certain price. Until the price is exceeded to the upside, the order is not active. The opposite applies for a sell... [ read more ]

The Curve Drawdown - A Sensitive Aspect of Stock Trading
If you are a new player on the stock market, you should know that things aren't always nice and shiny when it comes to stock trading. There are downsides and upsides as in any other trading or investing process and you have to be prepared to cope with the negative... [ read more ]

Benefits of Electronic OTCBB Stock Trading
Although today almost all stock market trades are done electronically with advanced software platforms, Over-The-Counter Bulletin Board (OTCBB) stocks are traded either directly or by call in. These processes take much time... [ read more ]

Investing in Cyclical Stocks
Predicting an upswing can be awfully difficult, especially since many cyclical stocks start doing well many months before the economy comes out of a recession. Buying requires research and courage. On top of that, investors must get their timing perfect. Investment guru... [ read more ]

Before you start stock trading: first think if it is worth your time and money
Today people are bombarded with lucrative offers from various trading companies offering $10, $7 or even $4 per stock trade. It looks very tempting to sign up and start trading since the terms are much better than it was before the Internet trading was possible... [ read more ]

The Easy Secrets To Determine Stock Market Position Sizing
When trading in the stock market, position sizing is where all the tools of money management come together. It`s perhaps the most important part of your stock market money management rules. Position sizing is simply deciding how much you are going to put into... [ read more ]

Forecasting the Stock Market
Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. “Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months.” Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow... [ read more ]

Category: Trading Psychology

2006-03-18T16:52:00.000-08:00

Emotion and Stock Trading
The stock market is driven solely by human emotion. Nothing else really matters. Human emotion is driven by perception, and perception is jaded by expectations. If your expectations are not met, than your perception is that this is bad. So if your expectations are high, chances ... [ read more ]

Psychology - How to Reduce Negative Thoughts Relating to Trading?
The thinking process of the brain relating to the psychology of trading involves: -- Beliefs -- Feelings -- Values -- Dispositions and -- Faith. The positive or negative energy brings power to a person's actions, which ultimately determines whether a person is a winner or a loser... [ read more ]

Market Psychology
Today we are inundated with tons of information about the economy, stocks, government agencies and foreign governments. They show us charts and graphs of the increase/decrease in oil production over the last 5 years, the amount of maple syrup produced in Vermont for the past... [ read more ]

Stock Trading Personality - What is Yours?
Before we put any money into the stock trading, we need to define our stock trading personality. The first step in this process is to determine whether we are traders or investors. When you know your trading personality, you will know type of stock trading plan and... [ read more ]

Before you start stock trading: first think if it is worth your time and money

2006-03-17T13:19:00.000-08:00

by Natali Amy

Today people are bombarded with lucrative offers from various trading companies offering $10, $7 or even $4 per stock trade. It looks very tempting to sign up and start trading since the terms are much better than it was before the Internet trading was possible.

That was the good news. The bad news is that those companies are selling you the tools and service only. They do not sell you any guarantees of success. It does not matter if you profit or lose money, the trading company will get its fee for each trade anyway.

Since you are considering going into the stock market, most likely you are planning to get a significant return on your investment which should also be better than what you would get buy investing your money into mutual funds (less risky than single stocks) or even no-risk certificate of deposits (CDs) where returns are guaranteed.

Well, how can you get such returns? The answer of course is simple and well known: buy low, sell high. If you do it most of the time you'll be a successful stock trader. Now the first problem comes: how do you know when to buy? There are probably several ways to do that, we do not discuss this here, let's assume that you know somehow or think you do know. Lets say you got lucky and the stock after you bought it is going up, just as you planned.

Now another problem comes: when to sell? After the stock is up 20%, what do you do? Sell now, or wait until it is up 50%, 100% or 200%? Do you listen to investor news and do what everybody else does: selling, buying more, or continue holding the stock? If you choose one of the first two options, how much of the stock you should buy or sell? Or if you hold the stock, are you sure it will continue to go up, or you may end up waiting until the stock price is back to the original and than lose it's value resulting in your losses.

The truth is some people actually do know the answers to those questions most of the time and actually make profit. The question is, are you as good as those people? Most people are losing money guessing and trying to time the market. If you're new in this game and not planning to spend much time on research, chances are you will lose. You will be competing with professional traders, big players and insiders who profit mostly because many others keep losing. Plus what are the chances that you can predict the market? The chances are very slim.

Some may argue: "I had that stock, I sold it when it was up 20%, but if I did not sell it at that time, now it would be up 300%. How stupid I was when I sold it, if I did not I'd made a lot of money. I have to do this again. It really proves that I can make a lot of money there and it's easy!" That is right you can make a lot of money, but it is not that easy as it looks. Lets assume you did not sell the stock at the time it was up 20%. Then what makes you think you would wait until it is up 300%? You may have sold it when it was up only 25%. Or it may go down several times below 20% increase, you could have thought it was going down forever and sold it even with a lower than 20% profit.

The bottom line is that it is easy to look at the past and see all the mistakes you've made. However it is very difficult to do right things for the future. Unless you know market trends well, understand related industries and stock company financials, most likely you will not be able to make profitable trades. Even professional traders do mistakes and lose money. If you are not one of them or not planning to become one, your best bet would be investing into CDs, mutual funds or your own business.

Article Source www.articlealley.com

Published under category : Stock Trading

The Easy Secrets To Determine Stock Market Position Sizing

2006-03-11T08:35:00.000-08:00

by David Jenyns

When trading in the stock market, position sizing is where all the tools of money management come together. It`s perhaps the most important part of your stock market money management rules. Position sizing is simply deciding how much you are going to put into any one stock market trade. You can calculate your position size using the other tools of stock market money management, your maximum loss and your stop loss.

However, many stock market traders believe that they`re doing an adequate job of position sizing by simply having a stop loss in place. While this will tell them when to get out of a stock market position, and will, with a maximum loss, determine how much capital they`re risking, it doesn`t answer the question of how much or how many units they can buy.

If you have already calculated your maximum loss and your stop loss, you can take these values, and plug them into a formula that will calculate how many shares you can purchase without exceeding your maximum loss. Although it is simple, the formula I`m about to give you is extremely powerful. The number of shares for your position is equal to your maximum loss divided by your stop loss size.

You`re already familiar with what a maximum loss is; but may not be recognize the term stop loss size. A stop loss size is the difference between your entry price and your stop loss value. If you were to enter the stock market with a one-dollar trade and set your stop loss at 90 cents, the stop loss value would be the difference between your entry price and your stock price, ten cents. Once you`ve entered these values into the formula, you can calculate how many shares you should buy so that you never risk more than your maximum loss.

Let`s look at how the formula works in practice. If your trading float was $20,000, and you were risking 2%, your maximum loss would be $400. If your stock market entry price was one dollar, and your stop loss value was 90 cents, your stop size would be ten cents. Now, the number of shares is equal to your maximum loss divided by your stop size. In this example, you can purchase 4,000 shares. If this stock reaches your stop loss, and you have to exit the position, you know you`re not going to risk or lose more than 2% of your float, which is $400.

This formula ensures the safety of your trading float. A little finessing that some of my clients like to do is to class their brokerage fee as part of the maximum loss. You could do this by subtracting the stock market brokerage fee from your maximum loss. If the stock market brokerage fee was $40 for your return trip, subtract 40 dollars from your maximum loss. Instead of entering $400 into the formula, you`d now enter $360. Once this is computed out, you can determine how many shares you`d buy, and know that you had included brokerage as part of your maximum loss.

By setting your position size so that you follow the 2% rule, you`re using a strategy that will limit the size of your losses during losing streaks. When you experience a winning streak, your position sizes will grow in a similar manner. By changing the amount of capital you`re deciding to risk, you`ll change the characteristics of your risk to reward ratio. All of your stock market money management rules will work together to make your trading system as profitable as possible.

Published under category : Stock Trading

Category: Trading Risk & Money Management

2006-03-10T10:05:00.000-08:00

Precision Money Management
This article describes the model of a natural relationship between trading system performance, trade position size, stop loss settings and profit goals. The model consists of algebraic equations that specify the trade size and stop loss settings needed to meet profit goals over... [ read more ]

Taking Risks in Stock Market Trading
One general asserted truth is that profit is a goal for many of the men and women who populate this planet. Profit is the more desirable in the case of those who actually invest money because they want to extract even more financial benefits out of these particular... [ read more ]

Stock Market Money Management Skills
Let's start by saying: You can't be afraid to take a loss. The investors that are the most successful in the stock market are the people who are willing to lose money. Having a strategy and/or a specific philosophy is an excellent starting point to investing but it... [ read moer ]

What are Your Investment Risks?
You've heard there are risks in the stock market, but what are those risks exactly? One of the main reasons that people say they won't invest in the stock market is risk. But ask them to explain risk and they can't go any further than "I could lose all my money." Risk isn't that simple... [ read more ]

Category: Online Stock Trading

2006-03-10T08:01:00.000-08:00

Earning Money Through Online Trading Stock
The first thing you need to know when you decide to trade shares by joining an online trading of stocks system is to visit the websites of the best online trading brokers available. These companies offer a wide variety of market flow previsions and developments in the online... [ read more ]

Category: Stock Trading Strategy

2006-03-09T13:46:00.000-08:00

Taking a Long-Term Look at the Market
If you can stick with your investment strategy for the long term, chances are that you will make a profit. To do this you will need to invest without liquidating your investment, without panicking and without losing sight of the benefits of investing for the long term. That sounds easier... [ read more ]

What is a Trading Plan - and Why You Need One?
How do you make money without picking tops and bottoms? I am glad you asked... Successful trading is similar to a successful business. You see, every successful business has a business plan so do successful traders. The astute reader knows that, successful traders have a systematic... [ read more ]

Shorting Strategy and Value Investing
How does shorting work? Shorting strategy has been very popular since the bubble burst of technology stocks in 2000. Shorting a stock is simply a bet that the stock price will drop. An investor can sell a stock he/she does not own by borrowing shares from brokers. The investor... [ read more ]

Long-Term Investment In Today's Market?
The stock market is very unstable at this time going up and down while interest rates are so low you want to be a borrower and not a lender. Would you like some suggestions on how can you get the most out of low interest rates while being assured your principal will not... [ read more ]

Good to Know Stock Trading Information
Stock trading is a complex process that may be quite confusing and deceitful to a new trader. Therefore, if you plan to start investing your money in shares, you should first choose a stock trading strategy that is most suitable for yourself. The major difference between stock... [ read more ]

Stock Market Trading Style Defined
Have you ever heard of the terms Scalping, Swing Trading, Trend Trading and Momentum Trading? Wonder if you are any of them? Wondering what suits you? Here's a quick definition. The different forms of trading are actually better differentiated by time frame... [ read more ]

The Covered Call Option Trading Strategy
A covered call option trading strategy is a strategy where you sell a call option against shares that you already own. For instance, let's assume you held 100 shares in company xyz and your outlook for these shares was that they may increase a little or decrease a little over... [ read more ]

Basic Strategy Day Trading
Stock trading is a very competitive field and in order to succeed you need to focus on a set of simple strategies that you can implement without hesitation. That's why the most important aspect of stock trading is the knowledge filter you employ to make your buy & sell decisions... [ read more ]

Investment Series - Short Term Trading Battles Long Term Trading
Many people have this wrong perception... that short term trading strategy is risky and long term trading strategy is safe. Now, let me put this in an analogy. The capital markets is like a huge ocean and your trading strategy is like a boat on this ocean... [read more ]

Stock Market Money Management Skills

2006-03-07T20:41:00.000-08:00

by Chris Perruna

Let's start by saying: You can't be afraid to take a loss. The investors that are the most successful in the stock market are the people who are willing to lose money.

Having a strategy and/or a specific philosophy is an excellent starting point to investing but it won't mean a thing if you can't manage your money. As I have said a million times: without cash, you can't invest.

Most investors spend far too much time trying to figure out the exact pivot point or perfect entry strategy and too little time on money management. The most important aspect to investing is cutting your losses, 90% of the battle is won by protecting your capital, regardless of the strategy.

Most successful money managers only make money 50-55% of time. This means that successful individual investors are going to be wrong about half the time. Since this is the case, you better be ready to accept your losses and cut them while they are small. By cutting losses quickly and allowing your winners to ride the up-trend, you will consistently finish the year with black ink.

Here are some methods that can help you with money management:

Set a predetermined stop loss (you must know where to cut the loss before it happens “this will help control emotions when the time comes)." A 7-10% stop loss insurance policy is best. Tighten the stop loss range in down markets and loosen the range in strong bull markets.

Establish smaller positions if your account has had a recent losing streak (the losses may be telling you important information such as a critical turning point, it may be time to sell and get out).

If you think you are wrong or if the market is moving against you, cut your position in half “this is the best insurance policy on Wall Street."

If you cut your position in half two times, you will be left with only 25% of the original position “the remaining stock is no longer a big deal as your risk is very low."

If you sell out of a trade prematurely based on a minor correction, you can always reestablish the position again.

Initial position sizing plays a big part in money management “don't take on too big of a position relative to your portfolio size. Novice investors should never use their entire account on one trade no matter how small the account

Know when you would like to get out of a position after a considerable profit has been made. Signs of topping could be a climax run, a spinning top or higher highs on lower volume.

Finally, cut any trade that doesn't act the way you originally analyzed it to act.

With these guidelines, you will be well on your way to solid money management skills that will help you profit in Wall Street year in and year out. Always remember, you are going to take-on losing trades at least half of the time. This is a tough concept to accept for most novice investors but it a fact. If you don't cut losses, you won't be investing for very long as you will run out of cash and the desire to continue to invest.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Chris is the founder and CEO of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.

Published under category : Trading Risk & Money Management

The Covered Call Options Trading Strategy

2006-03-05T15:20:00.000-08:00

by Don Wright

A covered call option trading strategy is a strategy where you sell a call option against shares that you already own. For instance, let's assume you held 100 shares in company xyz and your outlook for these shares was that they may increase a little or decrease a little over the next say 3 months.

Rather than selling the shares and looking for a stock that you hope will increase in value at a greater rate, you could implement a covered call strategy.

So, taking the above scenario as an example, you could write a covered call, x number of strike prices above the current price of the stock.

Let's have a look at a few possible outcomes, assuming that you received $ 100 in premium for writing the call.

A. The stock increases in price a little over the next 3 months, but does not hit the strike price at which you wrote the call. Here you have gained 2 fold, as you benefit from the increase in stock price and you get to keep the $ 100, as the call has expired worthless.

B. The stock falls in price a little over the next 3 months. Here, you have lost money on the stock as it has fallen, however, this loss is offset by the $ 100 that you received for writing the call. It is possible that the $ 100 could cover all of the loss, or maybe even still generate a profit if the loss on the stock is less than $ 100.

C. The stock increases in price over the next 3 months and trades over the strike price at which you wrote the call. Here you benefit to a limited degree, as the profits generated from this move are limited, with no extra profits being generated above the strike price of the call.

The covered call options trading strategy is considered to be conservative in nature, it can be used if a person is looking for greater profits out of a slow / range bound stock, it can be used to purchase a stock at a lower price than it is actually trading at, it can be used as a hedge against potential losses, Etc, Etc.

A very profitable long term trading system can be built around the implementation of the covered call strategy.

Author`s note:
Which Trading System
Totally Independent & Unbiased Testing, Monitoring, Ranking Tables & Detailed Individual Performance Reports For Hundreds Of Futures, Stock, Options & Forex Trading Systems. www.whichtradingsystem.com

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Category: Stock Fundamental Analysis

2006-03-04T16:44:00.000-08:00

Ignore Stock Market "Talking Heads"
You should ignore analysts on TV, the radio, the newspaper and all other TALKING HEADS when it comes to investing! What stocks do they talk about? - The same old group, every day of every year - Why? Because they don't know any better, they are sheep like the general public... [ read more ]

Forces that Move Stock Prices
Among the largest forces that affect stock prices are inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities and currencies. At times the stock market suddenly reverses itself followed typically by published explanations phrased to suggest that the writer’s keen observation... [ read more ]

Stock Fundamental Analysis Basics
Fundamental Analysis Definition. Fundamental analysis is a stock valuation method that uses financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stock prices. The fundamental information that is analyzed can include a company's financial reports, and non-finanical... [ read more ]

Should I Incorporate Fundamental Analysis When Trading a System?
There's a common misconception about "Fundamental Analysis": People tend to think that the market should react in a certain way to news. Example: "Unemployment Rate goes down", which means that the economy is doing better, therefore companies should make more profits... [ read more ]

Category: Stock Technical Analysis

2006-03-04T11:42:00.000-08:00

Predict Stock Market Tops and Bottoms With The NH-NL Ratio
The new high/new low ratio (NH-NL) ratio has been around for many years but different investors use this indicator in different ways. Some investors plot the ratio on a chart using the number zero as a neutral designation with positive numbers equaling more new highs... [read more ]

Bollinger Bands Strategies
The Bollinger Band theory is designed to depict the volatility of a stock. It is quite simple, being composed of a simple moving average, and its upper and lower "bands" that are 2 standard deviations away. Standard deviations are a statistical tool used to contain the... [ read more ]

Technical Analysis, What is it and Why is it Important to Me?
I had never heard of technical analysis until I tried my hand at futures trading. Like most new traders my plan was to buy low and sell high, which is still the best way to buy and sell stocks. The problems start when we try and figure out what is low and what is high... [ read more ]

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Charts
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence charts, or MACD charts for short, are a technical indicator that is derived from the more simple moving average. The MACD charts are oscillating indicators, meaning that they move above and below a centerline or zero point... [ read more ]

Day Trading - Moving Averages vs Support and Resistance
When day trading the SP and Nasdaq futures, do you rely on your moving averages more than your support & resistant areas? During the first hour of trading, the support and resistance zones on the SP and Nasdaq futures are the most important things to watch. The moving... [ read more ]

Stocks - A Winning Way To Scan For Stocks That Are In Uptrends
With thousands of stocks listed in the stock exchange for trading, how does a trader go about his stock selection? I am not refering to the fundamental approach where the trader studies the fundamentals of the company, and research the performance results... [ read more ]

Precision Money Management

2006-03-04T11:27:00.000-08:00

by James Andrews

This article describes the model of a natural relationship between trading system performance, trade position size, stop loss settings and profit goals. The model consists of algebraic equations that specify the trade size and stop loss settings needed to meet profit goals over a specified time period for any consistently used trading system for which historical performance data is available.

Most of us think of a trailing stop loss when the term money management is mentioned. William O’Neil in his book, “How to Make Money in Stocks”, used a value from 7 to 8%. Many stock advisories, including Stansberry and Associates, Outstanding Investments and the Oxford Club, typically use a 25% trailing stop loss. Option advisories use still higher values in the 35% range, as is done by Michael Lombardi, and up to as high as 50%, as used by Dr. Stephen Cooper. Trailing stops are typically used along with a maximum percentage of capital per trade to avoid large portfolio draw-downs in the event that a given trade goes badly.

Beyond this precaution, there is little theory to explain how position size and trailing stop losses should be arrived at, leaving the impression that they can be arbitrarily chosen based on one’s risk comfort level. However, this is not the case. Too narrow a stop loss setting can eat into profits by exiting volatile trades too early. Too wide a stop loss setting can eat into trading profits by consuming too much capital. A systematic way is needed to choose an optimum position size and stop loss setting to achieve a precise level of money management.

Intuitively, the higher the success rate in correctly choosing the direction of trade and the higher the average gain per trade, the looser one can afford to set his stop loss. However, when one has a specific earnings goal, this relationship needs to be more precise. Fortunately, the availability of consistent trading system performance data allows the use of an engineering approach. This approach enables us to define a very precise relationship between the average return for a series of trades, the percentage of correct choices in the direction of a trade, the size of each trade, profit goals and the appropriate stop loss settings.

The model introduced here for precision money management is based on average values of historical trading system performance and is only applicable when a trading system is consistently followed. The model should not be applied to unstructured trading across a variety of instruments requiring varying trading techniques. Each trading system or technique generates a unique set of statistics to which this methodology can be applied on an individual basis.

The model is derived based on fractional averages from information readily available to anyone that uses a trading system consistently. A pair of concise algebraic relationships evolves in the process. Finally, examples are provided to show the roles of position size and stop loss settings in meeting profit goals.

FP is defined as the average fractional profit for all historical trades being taken into consideration. FP is equal to the sum of the fractional gains and losses for all trades divided by the total number of trades N,

FP = (sum of fractional gains + sum of fractional loses) / N

In order for this to be valid, each trade must involve very close to the same amount of capital that we will assign an average value C. For example, if there were 3 historical trades resulting in +25%, -15% and +30% gains, the average fractional profit would be (0.25 - 0.15 + 0.30)/3 = 0.133. Of course, a much larger statistically significant number of trades would be used in practice.

Since the sum of fractional gains is equal to the number of gains NG times the average fractional gain FG, and the sum of fractional loses is equal to the number of loses NL times the average fractional loss FL, the definition can be expressed as,

FP = (NG FG + NL FL)/ N

It is understood that NG + NL = N. The value of NG divided by N equals FC, the fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction. NL divided by N equals (1 – FC), the fraction of trades chosen in the wrong direction. So N divided into NG and NL leaves the following form.

FP = FC FG + (1 – FC) FL . . . . . . . . . .(1)

Where,

FP is the average fractional profit for N trades that each uses an average amount of capital C

FC is the fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction

FG is the average fractional gain for NG winning trades

FL is the average fractional loss for NL losing trades

The fractional quantities can each be expressed individually as percentages but they should be expressed as decimal fractions in the equation.

In order to use equation (1), a profit goal must be established over a definite period of time. The profit per trade needed to meet a specific profit goal in a given amount of time depends on the number of promising trades likely to be identified by the trading system over that time period. The number of promising trades that become available within a given time period must be estimated judiciously because the last thing we want to do is force a trade under less than ideal conditions. In other words, we need to remain true to whatever system we are using.

For N trades each valued at an average capital amount C, the average fractional profit can also be defined by the total dollar profit goal DG divided by the dollar sum of all N trades DS,

FP = DG / DS

Since DS is equal to the average capital amount C times the number of trades N, this becomes,

FP = DG / (C N) . . . . . . . . . .(2)

Example 1:

Let us suppose that we have done a sufficient number of trades using our system to determine that the average fractional profit is 10%, the average gain per trade has been 29% and the fraction of times we chose the correct trading direction was 70%. Further let us set a goal to earn $3,000 per month. By our estimate, we figure that we can safely enter an average of 3 trades a week and remain within trading system guidelines. This equates to 3 trades per week times 4.33 weeks per month or an average of 13 trades per month.

Variables: FP = 0.1

N = 13

DG = $3,000

FC = 0.7

FG = 0.29

Solving equation (2) for C gives us the average size of each trade,

C = DG / (FP N) = $3,000 / [(0.1) (13)] = $2307.69 for the average size of each trade

Rearranging equation (1), the average stop loss setting FL must be,

FL = (FP - FC FG) / (1 - FC)

= [0.1 – (0.7) (0.29)] / (1 – 0.7) = - 0.3433 or -34.33%

Example 2:

Using essentially the same situation, we can look at what the effect of certain improvements in trading would have on the profits. Say we habitually exit winning trades too early and could possibly increase the average fractional gain FG from 29% to 36%. From the same relationship used for example 1, the resulting stop loss setting FL could then be widened to,

FL = (FP - FC FG) / (1 - FC)

= [0.1 – (0.7) (0.36)] / (1 – 0.7) = - 0.5066 or -50.66%

Example 3:

Let’s suppose that for a series of potentially high yielding trades we know that an extra wide stop loss setting of -60% is needed and we want to know what the effect will be.

First we might want to look at the effect of a wider stop loss setting on profits with everything else remaining constant. We do this by equating the right sides of equations (1) and (2) and solving for DG,

DG = (C N) [FC FG + (1 – FC) FL] . . . . . . . . . .(3)

= ($2307.69) (13) [(0.7) (0.29) + (1 – 0.7) (-0.6)] = $689.99

Clearly, our original monthly profit goal of $3,000 can not be met without some additional changes, such as an increase in the number of trades from 13 to 57 over the month period. But this is not feasible since it was already estimated that the maximum number of trades identified by the trading system would be only 13 per month.

Example 4:

Next, since the trades in example 3 are believed to be potentially high yielding trades, we might look at the increase in the fractional gain per trade FG needed to justify the wider stop loss setting of -60% and still meet the original profit goal. By rearranging equation (1),

FG = [FP - (1 – FC) FL] / FC

= [0.1 – (1 – 0.7) (-0.6)] / 0.7 = 0.4 or 40%

So the average fractional gain for winning trades FG would need to increase from 29% to 40% to justify a widening of the stop loss from -34.33% to -60%, keeping everything else the same while meeting the monthly profit goal.

The foregoing examples give insight into trading system characteristics that affect position size and stop loss settings. Narrow stop loss settings imply a smaller fraction of trades chosen in the correct direction or a smaller fractional gain for winning trades. Wider settings imply the opposite. Stop loss settings should not be arbitrarily set independently of position size, trading goals and trading system performance. Stop loss levels more or less define future profits for a given set of trading rules, whether the user realizes it or not. While it is laudable that traders are encouraged by their advisors to adopt money management, the recommendation of a specific stop loss value without knowing the profit goal and average position size can be misleading. When a trading system is used consistently, this model enables precise money management.

About author:
James Andrews authors a free newsletter at http://www.wisertrader.com where investment math formulas are developed at little or no cost. The site offers option alerts, free stock picks, an online forum, trading templates and advanced automatic trading systems.
© 2005 Permission is granted to reproduce this article, as long as, this paragraph is included intact.

Published under category : Trading Risk & Money Management

Category: Stock Basic

2006-03-03T11:00:00.000-08:00

Making Thousands In The New York Stock Exchange - Hidden Ground Breaking Rules
Once you have decided to begin trading in the New York Stock Exchange, there is a bewildering variety of information and advice out there that will guarantee to put you on the way to success. A lot of the New York Stock Exchange advice is good, and some of it isn’t. So where do you... [ read more ]

Introduction to Stock
In financial terminology, stock is the capital raised by a corporation, through the issuance and sale of shares. A shareholder is any person or organization which owns one or more shares of a corporation's stock. The aggregate value of a corporation's issued... [ read more ]

Stock Trading: Basic Information
A stock exchange is an organization which provides a marketplace (either physical or virtual) for trading shares, where investors (represented by stock brokers) may buy and sell shares in a wide range of companies. A given company will usually list its shares in only one... [ read more ]

Cyclical Stock: an Introduction
Making money in Stock is a risky but interesting activities, more than just try to catch some profits, it's a fascinating adventure.. Think of being on a Ferris wheel: one minute you're on top of the world, the next you're at the bottom - and eager to head back up again. Investing... [ read more ]

Basics of Stock Market
Financial markets provide their participants with the most favorable conditions for purchase/sale of financial instruments they have inside. Their major functions are: guaranteeing liquidity, forming assets prices within establishing proposition and demand and... [ read more ]

Bid, Ask, and Size
When you enter an order to buy or sell a stock, you see the bid and ask for a stock and some numbers. What are the bid and ask, and what do those numbers mean? One, the bid, is what you need to know when you are selling a stock. The other, the ask (or offer) is what... [ read more ]

The Difference Between Growth and Value Stocks
What is the difference between a growth stock and a value stock? You've heard the terms in regards to value and growth investing, but you may not be sure what they exactly mean. There are no hard, set definitions of growth and value stocks. But you will find... [ read more ]

Trading - A Probability Game

2006-03-01T20:54:00.000-08:00

by Yves Mailhot

As a trader, you have to forget about finding a sure thing. You must accept the fact that the stock market can do anything at anytime. If you are not convinced, consider that there are millions of traders trading for institutions, funds, investors, swing traders, scalpers, etc? all acting together in different time frames and using different types of analysis.

Fact: Trading is not about guessing the future because it cannot be done.

If you accept this fact, then it is much easier to take losses without destroying your self-esteem. You take a trade, you accept that you don't know what will happen next. You have no expectations that this trade will turn into a winner. Your only expectation is that something will happen.

So how do you make money not knowing what will happen next? You treat trading as a probability game. Here is an example of a probability game:

Let's say I roll a dice:

- I pay $1 each time I play

- If I roll a 3, a 4, a 5, or a 6 then I win $2. If I roll a 1 or a 2 then I don't win anything.

Clearly, every time I roll the dice I have no idea what the outcome will be. But I know that for every roll the odds are in my favor. In the long run, I will win 4 times out of 6, which means that I will pay $6 to win $8. I will be a consistent winner if I play long enough.

In mathematical terms, your expected win each time you play is

(4/6) X $2 = $1.33 meaning $0.33 profit (you pay $1 to play)

Another version of this game could be that you win $3 if you roll a 4, a 5, or a 6, and nothing if you roll a 1, a 2, or a 3. In this case the expectation each time you play would be

(3/6) X $3 = $1.50 meaning $0.50 profit in the long run

So how do we translate this into trading?

Each time you roll the dice, you don't know the outcome, the same as for each individual trade. But each time you roll the dice, you know the odds are in your favor to make money, and you will make money if you play long enough.

So for each trade you enter, you must know that the odds are in your favor to make money. As you can see in the second example, it does not mean that you have to win more often that you lose. It also depends on how much you win when you win and how much you lose when you lose.

How do you put the odds in your favor?

You have to develop a trading edge using technical analysis, fundamental analysis, market internals, etc.. You have to have a number of variables that must be present before you enter a trade and always use the same set of variables. Your edge is your strategy to enter and exit trades and should be well defined in your trading plan.

All that can be summarized as follows:

- For each trade you take, you don't know the outcome, you accept that anything can happen, and therefore you have no expectation for that trade.

- You believe in your trading strategy, that is you believe that for each trade you take the odds are in your favor.

- You believe that the outcome over a series of trades is relatively certain and predictable.

To go back to the dice example: will you get mad or feel stupid when you don't roll a winning number? No because with a dice you accept the fact that you cannot know the outcome. You have no expectation. Apply the same idea to your trades and save your self-esteem.

This idea of treating trading as a probability game made a big difference in the way I feel about losses. I learned about it in "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas. I strongly recommend this book.

If you have a good trading plan, with a strategy to enter and exit trades, then a successful trade is one for which you followed your plan, not necessarily a winning trade.

And remember, you will never know if your strategy works if you don't follow it.

About author: Yves Mailhot - A Disciplined and Organized Approach to Trading -- www.TradingFramework.com

Published under category : Stock Trading

What are Your Investment Risks?

2006-02-28T12:45:00.000-08:00

by Martin Lukac

You've heard there are risks in the stock market, but what are those risks exactly?

One of the main reasons that people say they won't invest in the stock market is risk. But ask them to explain risk and they can't go any further than "I could lose all my money." Risk isn't that simple.

Risks are classified based on the behavior of the stock prices in the market. Understanding what stock has what risk is one of the basic things you should master before you begin investing.

Don't be fooled into thinking that low risk means no risk. It is true -- you could lose everything. This is because there are absolutely no guarantees in the stock market -- not by the government, not by the company you are investing in and not by your stock broker.

You could also call your risk a different name -- the unknown. You cannot accurately predict what stocks will do every time. For example, you might purchase a stock that you expect to rise in price over time. You are looking forward to receiving nice annual dividends. However, the company is sued and experiences financial problems. You may not see the dividends you were betting on. In fact, if the company goes under, you could lose your entire investment. You've just met risk face to face.

When looking at risk, you should consider both the stock's risk and what that risk represents in your overall portfolio. This will depend on the diversification of your investment portfolio. You have higher risk with stocks and lower risks with bonds and money markets. However, the risks associated with investing in stocks are less than investing in options or futures. And remember that there are different types of stock with different risk levels. Speculative stocks have a higher risk than Blue Chips, in general. You need to understand the risk level you are taking on with each of your investment choices.

You should also look at your time frame for investing. History lessons show that stock prices outperform almost every other investing option over the long term. However, short-term stock prices have about a 50% chance of going down. If you are only looking to invest for the short term, you should perhaps consider other options. If you have plenty of time -- say thirty years -- time will help in mitigating your risks. Know how time plays a role in your portfolio when it comes to risk levels.

There are several risk reducing strategies out there, including diversification and investing for the long term. Once you understand the risks associated with investing in the stock market, you should start considering which stocks fit your overall game plan. Your risk level may be different from someone else with the same income and investment potential. This is because you are a unique investor. You have your own emotional capacity for risk. Some people embrace it and others become nauseous. Know your risk level before you invest.

About author:
Martin Lukac http://www.MartinLukac.com, represents http://www.RateEmpire.com , an Internet consumer banking marketplace. RateEmpire.com is a destination site of personal finance, investing, taxes and mortgage rates. RateEmpire.com provides mortgage guides and financial rates and information. RateEmpire.com also operates a financial portal #1 American Financial, found at http://www.1AmericanFinancial.com

Published under category : Trading Risk & Money Management

9 Deadly Trading Mistakes!

2006-02-26T15:26:00.000-08:00

by Jeff Wilde

The following are a list of nine things you want to avoid at all costs. Anyone of them can literally destroy your financial dreams and goals!

1. Trading with money you can’t afford to lose.

One of the greatest obstacles to successful trading is using money that you really can’t afford to lose. Examples of this would be money that is supposed to be used to pay the mortgage, bills or your child’s college tuition. This is sometimes referred to as “trading with scared money” and there is a very good reason for that. Ultimately what happens is that when someone knows in the back of their mind that they are risking the rent money, they trade out of fear and emotion versus logic and no emotion.

If you are in this situation I highly recommend that you stop trading until you earn enough to put into an account that you truly can afford to lose without causing major financial setbacks. You can start with as little as $2000 and trade stocks under $30.

2. The need to be “certain”.

We all have the need to make sure that the trade we want to make is going to be a good one. Therefore we look for signs that will give us a confirmation to enter. This can come in several forms, for example… Tuning into CNBC or the Wall Street Journal to give us news that our stock is on the move or waiting for a couple of extra days to make sure that the stock is really flying and just not on a false breakout. Other traders will get opinions from friends, family or broker. Others will wait for ten technical indicators to line up and give the “green light”.

All of these are okay to a point, however the big mistake to avoid is taking so much time that you let the trade take off without you. Interestingly, what ends up happening as a result of waiting too long is that you actually increase your risk. This is because as a stock moves higher and higher there are fewer buyers left in the market and it can come tumbling down until more buyers step in. It is like a game of musical chairs; eventually someone gets caught without a chair.

Traders who wait and wait and wait to make extra sure are usually the ones buying the top tick just before the stocks sells off. They then beat themselves up thinking they picked the wrong stock. Odds are it had nothing to do with their selection, just bad timing.

The thing to keep in mind is that there can be no absolute certainty in any given trade. All we ever can do is take a very educated risk along with a leap of faith!

3. Spending profits before you make them.

Nothing is more exciting then getting into a trade that blasts off and puts you into a highly profitable situation. This can cause major problems however, because this type of trade puts you in a highly euphoric state and leads to daydreaming about the huge profits still to come. You say “Wow I’m already up 15% in two days; I’ll be up 50% in a week and probably double my money in no time!” Then the next thing that happens is you are deciding on the great new car you are going to buy or perhaps telling your boss that he can stick it… Well you get the idea!

The real problem occurs as you get caught up in the daydream and expectations. This causes you to not be prepared to get out as the market sells off and eats up your profits because you have convinced yourself of the eventual outcome and will deny the reality of the situation.

The simple remedy for this is to know where and how you will take profits once you enter the trade. Also, realize that the market will only go up as long as it wants and not how high you think it should go.

4. Forming an opinion.

I’m here to tell you that the market does not give a damn about you or your opinions. Even if they are based on painstaking research or from a “Wall Street Guru”, it doesn’t matter!

Maybe your opinion on market direction for the long term is correct, but it doesn’t mean that in the short term things can’t move against you. Remember that there are tens of thousands of traders out there who also have an opinion. It is all these different opinions that can cause great fluctuations in price on any given day or week regardless of your outlook

5. Three 4-letter words that will kill you! HOPE---WISH---PRAY

If you ever find yourself doing one or more of the above while in a trade then you are in big trouble! As I have already said, the market doesn’t give a damn. All the hoping, wishing and praying in the world is not going to turn a losing trade into a winning one.

When you are wrong just use a simple 4-letter word to correct the situation-SELL!

6. Not sticking to your plan

A big source of trouble arises when a trader starts to deviate from their strategy. Maybe for a week they will trade according to one set of rules and the next use something entirely different.

This flying by the seat of the pants always ends up backfiring. This is because the trader can never be certain what is working and what is not.

You must never deviate from your methodology once you start. As long as it is a good one statistically there is absolutely no reason to change it. The way to make money from it is to trade it over and over again to exploit the edge it gives you.

One thing to also be aware of is that a trader is most vulnerable to switching approaches after a few loses. So, pay special attention at these times.

7. Not knowing how to get out of a losing trade.

It’s amazing how many people I have talked to who don’t have any clear escape plan for getting out of a bad trade. Once again they hope, pray wish and rationalize their position. As I keep saying the market does not care what you think. It does what it does and when you are wrong you are wrong!

The easiest way to keep a bad trade from going really bad is to determine before you get in, where you will get out. You can use a dollar amount or at some target point such as the low of the previous 15-minute bar.

***Make sure you don’t get the “stunned deer in the headlights syndrome”. This is where you see the stock fall to your stop loss point, but you are unable to take action. Maybe this is due to fear or disbelief that you are wrong, but unless you get out ASAP you could end up I major financial trouble!

8. Having an ego.

I have seen a number of individuals enter the trading game that were extremely successful in other business ventures. Because of this they had a fairly big ego and thought they couldn’t fail. Their egos became their downfall because they couldn’t except that they were wrong and refused to bail out of bad trades.

Once again, whoever or wherever you came from does not concern the markets. All the charm, powers of persuasion, number of diplomas on the wall or business savvy will not budge the market when you are wrong.

9. Falling in love with a stock or trade.

Let me give you an example of what I mean. Back in the spring of 1999 EFAX was a really hot stock. I waited to buy it on a dip and did so at $19/share. It started to move up strongly and life was great!

After a while though, it started to come back to my entry point and then below it. Here’s the problem. For some reason I really liked EFAX and sort of became attached to it. Ultimately I couldn’t let go of it even though I knew I should. I justified and rationalized why my dear friend should bounce back, but it never did. I finally had to break off my love affair when the stock hit $9. (Ouch!)

The moral of this story is never fall in love, let alone get married to any stock. It can cost you dearly!

I can't emphasize enough the importance of the principles in this article. Whether you are a position trader, swing trader or day trader, these principles can help you avoid some costly and painful financial mistakes. As they say, smart people learn from their mistakes and brilliant people learn from the mistakes of others.

About author:
Dr. Jeffrey Wilde, a trading veteran with 16 years of experience is a trading coach to over 3500 traders in 63 countries. His new blog http://www.askjeffwilde.com offers free trading articles, tips and advice. He also teaches a variety of courses found at http://www.win-at-trading.com and http://www.fastforexprofits.com

Published under category : Stock Trading Tips

Trading Education: The Best of Both Worlds!

2006-02-26T10:05:00.000-08:00

by Harald Anderson

I made my very first investment in the stock market when I was ten years old. Ever since then I have been hooked! Now I check out hundreds of trades each year with the same excitement andenthusiasm, and each time try to find that one market at the right time that could dramatically create wealth.

If you would've been fortunate enough to invest $1,000 in Microsoft when it first came public, that initial investment would be worth close to $300,000 today. In the last 10 years America Online has been up 12,000% and it has come creashing lower as well! Although statistics like this are advocated regularly by journalists and brokers the majority of investors have a very difficult time staying in an investment for that long of a period of time even though they know they are in a good company The financial markets are a never ending source of temptation trying to lure you into a new position with each passing second. The belief that the grass is always greener in another market is a distraction that every investor eventually has to contend with. Even if you are a MUTUAL FUND investor the fact is that you are always looking for the BEST return available.

Years ago when I worked as a broker I was confronted with this dilemma. One of my clients told me that he knew the BIG MONEY was made in holding on for the LONG TERM but that he liked trading the short term swings. He asked my advice and I had to think long and hard for several days before I could respond.

Eventually, I presented him with the following strategy that literally combines the best of the TRADER and INVESTOR worlds. Traders are looking for the quick hit and run. Investors seek their advantage by looking at the long term. Long term investors quite often benefit from allowing dividends to be reinvested into purchasing more stock in the company and the very real possibility of the stock splitting in the future. If you combine both of these apparently opposite perspectives you end up with a very unique viewpoint that eliminates a lot of stress associated with decision making. This strategy will bring home the perspective that within every seed that you plant in the financial markets lies the promise of ten thousand forests. I refer to it as my FOREST STRATEGY! It is another way to make your short term efforts as a trader pay you dividends by also recognizing the importance and significance of long term investing.

Let's say that your initial investing capital is $10,000. 1) Find a company, preferably in the Standard and Poors 500 Index that you understand and are familiar with. If you want to narrow down your group you can select companies that are in the Dow Jones Industrial Average which include only 30 stocks. These are established companies with long financial histories that can be researched to your hearts delight.

2) Study the companies Price Earnings Ratio. Where is the Price Earnings ratio now? What has been The highest and lowest points of the price earnings ratio over the last five years? Look to buy a company with a historically low price earnings ratio that is a leader in its industry. Use the Price Earnings Ratio as a guide. Don't try to pick bottoms. 3) Look at a chart of prices to see what has happened recently and to determine where a good buy point is.

4) Place your trade with the intention of a 10% profit objective. Once you reach your profit objective, sell enough shares in the company to remove your initial $10,000 investment and only leave your $1,000 profit in that stock.

5) Repeat steps 1-3 as you search for another company to trade for a 10% profit and plant the Remainder for the long term.

6) Repeat, Repeat, Repeat.

The drawback on this type of trading is that when you are with a great company you do give up a lot of upside. However, if you look at the PROBABILITIES how many IBM's, Aol's, Yahoos! Or Microsofts are there out there in relation to the entire universe of stocks? What I personally like about this style of trading is that it eliminates the GREED factor that most investors have of trying to hold on for the top tick. Secondly it also allows you to build a nice diversified portfolio. Thirdly, trading becomes a very fun game with potentially lucrative long term implications. It is very possible to trade this way once a month planting a seed in a quality company that can easily become a Forest of Wealth for you.

Some trades might take the better part of a year to pan out. Some trades might achieve your profit objective in a matter of weeks or days if you are really fortunate.. Keep in mind that you still have to manage your risk on each and every trade. Let me be perfectly blunt, if you don't manage your downside there will not be an UPSIDE... It is acceptable to use any of the RISK Management Techniques that I advocate by doing Partial Covered Calls and other Option Selling Techniques. When done correctly those techniques can dramatically accelerate your returns.

I must admit that I truly enjoy this type of trading. (My broker likes it as well as it generates many more commissions for him.) However, part of the reason that this method sits well with me is that I hardly pay any attention at all to my profits after I take them. It becomes very stress free to know that you have increased your wealth 10% and are just interested in planting seeds all over the financial landscape in companies that meet your criteria. I must however stress the point that you make sure that you are aware of the downside. This method is by no means RISK FREE....but for the individual who likes to trade and invest simultaneously it truly is ideal.

Guard your investment principal at all costs and let your profits run. Just one more way to look at the bigger picture. Kind of like a Johnny Appleseed meets the financial markets. Many extremely successful investors do this with Initial Public Offerings as well. Study away.and remember,let's be careful out there.

Dowjonesfully,
Harald Anderson
www.eOptionsTrader.com

About author:
Harald Anderson is the founder and Chief Analyst of eOptionsTrader.com a leading online resource of Options Trading Information. He writes regularly for financial publications on Risk Management and Trading Strategies. His goal in life is to become the kind of person that his dog already thinks he is. www.eOptionsTrader.com

Basics of Stock Market

2006-02-25T16:23:00.000-08:00

by John Goldfinger

Financial markets provide their participants with the most favorable conditions for purchase/sale of financial instruments they have inside. Their major functions are: guaranteeing liquidity, forming assets prices within establishing proposition and demand and decreasing of operational expenses, incurred by the participants of the market.

Financial market comprises variety of instruments, hence its functioning totally depends on instruments held. Usually it can be classified according to the type of financial instruments and according to the terms of instruments’ paying-off.

From the point of different types of instruments held the market can be divided into the one of promissory notes and the one of securities (stock market). The first one contains promissory instruments with the right for its owners to get some fixed amount of money in future and is called the market of promissory notes, while the latter binds the issuer to pay a certain amount of money according to the return received after paying-off all the promissory notes and is called stock market. There are also types of securities referring to both categories as, e.g., preference shares and converted bonds. They are also called the instruments with fixed return.

Another classification is due to paying-off terms of instruments. These are: market of assets with high liquidity (money market) and market of capital. The first one refers to the market of short-term promissory notes with assets age up to 12 months. The second one refers to the market of long-term promissory notes with instruments age surpasses 12 months. This classification can be referred to the bond market only as its instruments have fixed expiry date, while the stock market’s not.

Now we are turning to the stock market.

As it was mentioned before, ordinary shares’ purchasers typically invest their funds into the company-issuer and become its owners. Their weight in the process of making decisions in the company depends on the number of shares he/she possesses. Due to the financial experience of the company, its part in the market and future potential shares can be divided into several groups.

1. Blue Chips

Shares of large companies with a long record of profit growth, annual return over $4 billion, large capitalization and constancy in paying-off dividends are referred to as blue chips.

2. Growth Stocks

Shares of such company grow faster; its managers typically pursue the policy of reinvestment of revenue into further development and modernization of the company. These companies rarely pay dividends and in case they do the dividends are minimal as compared with other companies.

3. Income Stocks

Income stocks are the stocks of companies with high and stable earnings that pay high dividends to the shareholders. The shares of such companies usually use mutual funds in the plans for middle-aged and elderly people.

4. Defensive Stocks

These are the stocks whose prices stay stable when the market declines, do well during recessions and are able to minimize risks. They perform perfect when the market turns sour and are in requisition during economic boom.

These categories are widely spread in mutual funds, thus for better understanding investment process it is useful to keep in mind this division.

Shares can be issued both within the country and abroad. In case a company wants to issue its shares abroad it can use American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). ADRs are usually issued by the American banks and point at shareholders’ right to possess the shares of a foreign company under the asset management of a bank. Each ADR signals of one or more shares possession.

When operating with shares, aside of purchase/sale ratio profits, you can also quarterly receive dividends. They depend on: type of share, financial state of the company, shares category etc.

Ordinary shares do not guarantee paying-off dividends. Dividends of a company depend on its profitability and spare cash. Dividends differ from each other as they are to be paid in a different period of time, with the possibility of being higher as well as lower. There are periods when companies do not pay dividends at all, mostly when a company is in a financial distress or in case executives decide to reinvest income into the development of the business. While calculating acceptable share price, dividends are the key factor.

Price of ordinary share is determined by three main factors: annual dividends rate, dividends growth rate and discount rate. The latter is also called a required income rate. The company with the high risks level is expected to have high required income rate. The higher cash flow the higher share prices and versus. This interdependence determines assets value. Below we will touch upon the division of share prices estimating in three possible cases with regard to dividends.

While purchasing shares, aside of risks and dividends analysis, it is absolutely important to examine company carefully as for its profit/loss accounting, balance, cash flows, distribution of profits between its shareholders, managers’ and executives’ wages etc. Only when you are sure of all the ins and outs of a company, you can easily buy or sell shares. If you are not confident of the information, it is more advisable not to hold shares for a long time (especially before financial accounting published).

About author:
Dr. Goldfinger - http://www.financegaes.com. FinanceGates: free financial advice -- Educational articles, financial news and reviews on investing, personal finance, stocks, funds.

Published under category : Stock Basic

Forecasting the Stock Market

2006-02-24T11:24:00.000-08:00

by Al Thomas

Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. “Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months.” Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust any who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

Of course, your broker will send you gobs of slick material about various companies that predict they will double or triple in the next 12 months. On the New York Stock Exchange there will be about one half of one per cent (0.5%) of companies that will double this year. Are you smart enough to pick those winners? I’m not and I am considered a professional trader. And I am sure your broker isn’t either. He just wants to make a commission and is probably promoting a stock his brokerage company wants to push.

Every investor wants to know the future and will send money to some “expert” who will send him news about a company that only (?) he knows. And pigs can fly. One thing about the market. It is almost impossible to keep a secret and everyone knows everything about other companies. As soon as some “analyst” finds a cogent fact that can influence a stock price he will share that “secret” with a few close friends. Within minutes the “secret” is known by hundreds of thousands and is immediately reflected in the price of the stock.

If you do get sucked into one of these money traps by some smooth-talking salesman or newspaper verbiage I strongly suggest you immediately plan your exit strategy. Without an exit plan you can easily lose a large amount of your “investment”. This is not an investment; it is a gamble and should be treated as such. The first thought of any professional trader is ‘if I am wrong how much am I willing to lose’? Maybe 2%, 5%, certainly no more than 10%. Pros understand that small losses are OK, but never take a big loss.

From 1982 to 2000 it seemed everyone was a financial genius. How many of those folks kept those big winnings from 2000? Almost none. Most lost 40% to 60% of their money. Brokers said, “Hang in there. You are in for the long haul”. Unfortunately he did not tell you that Modern Portfolio Theory is based on a 40 year time line.

Yes, but understand you don’t need to predict anything. Don’t forecast. What you can easily learn is follow the major trend. You bought in 1982 and you sold out in 2000. The trend can be found in many ways with the simplest being posted every day in Investors Business Daily newspaper under the IBD Mutual Fund Index. When the Index price is above the 200-day moving average you own equities and when it is below you are in cash or bonds. Nothing complicated,

Don’t try to forecast the market. Let the market trend tell you.

Published under category : Stock Trading

12 Basic Stock Investing Rules Every Successful Investor Should Follow

2006-02-21T09:11:00.000-08:00

by C.C. Collins

There are many important things you need to know to trade and invest successfully in the stock market or any other market. 12 of the most important things that I can share with you based on many years of trading experience are enumerated below.

1. Buy low-sell high. As simple as this concept appears to be, the vast majority of investors do the exact opposite. Your ability to consistently buy low and sell high, will determine the success, or failure, of your investments. Your rate of return is determined 100% by when you enter the stock market.

2. The stock market is always right and price is the only reality in trading. If you want to make money in any market, you need to mirror what the market is doing. If the market is going down and you are long, the market is right and you are wrong. If the stock market is going up and you are short, the market is right and you are wrong.

Other things being equal, the longer you stay right with the stock market, the more money you will make. The longer you stay wrong with the stock market, the more money you will lose.

3. Every market or stock that goes up will go down and most markets or stocks that have gone down, will go up. The more extreme the move up or down, the more extreme the movement in the opposite direction once the trend changes. This is also known as "the trend always changes rule."

4. If you are looking for "reasons" that stocks or markets make large directional moves, you will probably never know for certain. Since we are dealing with perception of markets-not necessarily reality, you are wasting your time looking for the many reasons markets move.

A huge mistake most investors make is assuming that stock markets are rational or that they are capable of ascertaining why markets do anything. To make a profit trading, it is only necessary to know that markets are moving - not why they are moving. Stock market winners only care about direction and duration, while market losers are obsessed with the whys.

5. Stock markets generally move in advance of news or supportive fundamentals - sometimes months in advance. If you wait to invest until it is totally clear to you why a stock or a market is moving, you have to assume that others have done the same thing and you may be too late.

You need to get positioned before the largest directional trend move takes place. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bull market will be positive more often than not. The market reaction to good or bad news in a bear market will be negative more often than not.

6. The trend is your friend. Since the trend is the basis of all profit, we need long term trends to make sizeable money. The key is to know when to get aboard a trend and stick with it for a long period of time to maximize profits. Contrary to the short term perspective of most investors today, all the big money is made by catching large market moves - not by day trading or short term stock investing.

7. You must let your profits run and cut your losses quickly if you are to have any chance of being successful. Trading discipline is not a sufficient condition to make money in the markets, but it is a necessary condition. If you do not practice highly disciplined trading, you will not make money over the long term. This is a stock trading “system” in itself.

8. The Efficient Market Hypothesis is fallacious and is actually a derivative of the perfect competition model of capitalism. The Efficient Market Hypothesis at root shares many of the same false premises as the perfect competition paradigm as described by a well known economist.

The perfect competition model is not based on anything that exists on this earth. Consistently profitable professional traders simply have better information - and they act on it. Most non-professionals trade strictly on emotion, and lose much more money than they earn.

The combination of superior information for some investors and the usual panic as losses mount caused by buying high and selling low for others, creates inefficient markets.

9. Traditional technical and fundamental analysis alone may not enable you to consistently make money in the markets. Successful market timing is possible but not with the tools of analysis that most people employ.

If you eliminate optimization, data mining, subjectivism, and other such statistical tricks and data manipulation, most trading ideas are losers.

10. Never trust the advice and/or ideas of trading software vendors, stock trading system sellers, market commentators, financial analysts, brokers, newsletter publishers, trading authors, etc., unless they trade their own money and have traded successfully for years.

Note those that have traded successfully over very long periods of time are very few in number. Keep in mind that Wall Street and other financial firms make money by selling you something - not instilling wisdom in you. You should make your own trading decisions based on a rational analysis of all the facts.

11. The worst thing an investor can do is take a large loss on their position or portfolio. Market timing can help avert this much too common experience.

You can avoid making that huge mistake by avoiding buying things when they are high. It should be obvious that you should only buy when stocks are low and only sell when stocks are high.

Since your starting point is critical in determining your total return, if you buy low, your long term investment results are irrefutably better than someone that bought high.

12. The most successful investing methods should take most individuals no more than four or five hours per week and, for the majority of us, only one or two hours per week with little to no stress involved.

C.C. Collins is a Financial Planning Advisor and Author of “Scientific Wealth Strategies” at http://www.wealthscientist.com Find more information at http://www.stockinfo4u.com

Published under category : Stock Trading Tips

Futures Trading

2006-02-20T08:51:00.000-08:00

by Jennifer Bailey

All futures contracts are generally made for the purpose of speculation or hedging. As such, the general procedure for settlement is the neutralization of the original contract by an opposite contract on settlement, so that only difference between the current and the contract price is paid or received. It is rare that actual delivery of the goods is taken, and the price paid in settlement of futures contracts.

Futures trading is the most notable feature of business activity on the commodity exchange. In fact, the commodity exchanges are organized mainly for futures contracts. The futures contracts are made for two distinct purposes: speculation and hedging. Accordingly, they are either speculative or hedging contracts. Speculative activity is such an important part of the commodity exchanges that commodity exchanges are sometimes referred to as the speculative market.

All speculation represents an attempt on the part of individual to peep far into the future out of the window of the present. Speculation refers to an attempt to estimate the future trend of prices and proceed on that basis, to result in profit. Commodities may be bought at the current price with the assumption of selling them at a higher price in future or vice-versa.The line between gambling and speculation is very thin. On the surface both appear to be the same, but in fact speculation refers to the taking up of legitimate enterprise (purchase or sale of property, commodities, etc.) on the basis of an analysis of market trends and other factors that have a bearing on prices. When, however, people start speculating recklessly and blindly without applying their mind and intelligence, and without possessing the resources necessary to meet their commitments, it degenerates into sheer gambling.

Author`s note:
Futures Trading provides detailed information on Futures Trading, Online Futures Tradings, Futures Trading Software, Commodity Futures Tradings and more. Futures Trading is affiliated with Stock Day Trading.

Making Thousands In The New York Stock Exchange - Hidden Ground Breaking Rules

2006-02-18T08:40:00.000-08:00

by David Jenyns

Once you have decided to begin trading in the New York Stock Exchange, there is a bewildering variety of information and advice out there that will guarantee to put you on the way to success. A lot of the New York Stock Exchange advice is good, and some of it isn’t. So where do you start this difficult task? Here is a broad outline of what I consider some of the ground rules you need to cover to begin trading successfully in the New York Stock Exchange. As you progress in your trading using the New York Stock Exchange, it makes sense to learn more about specific parts of trading, but everyone needs to start somewhere.

I’d start with defining your portfolio objectives. These objectives will have a great impact on your style of trading in the New York Stock Exchange. Ask yourself a few questions, such as these, to find your objectives.

* Do you want to trade part-time or full-time?

* How much money do you have to work with?

* What annual rate of return do you want?

* Are you creating a trading system using the New York Stock Exchange for cash flow or capital growth?

Once you’ve set your objectives, you should select a certain stocks to trade with in the New York Stock Exchange. It’s a good idea to avoid the tendency to trade any and all stocks. Many traders fall into the trap of thinking that the more stocks they trade on the New York Stock Exchange, the more money they will make. Unfortunately, this is not true. You need to master and learn about the characteristics of certain stocks that you will consistently trade with in the New York Stock Exchange. Did you know that some of the most successful stock traders only trade using certain stocks? This fact is the key to making real money.

With your objectives and the certain stocks picks you have in mind, the time has come to design your trading plan - your set defined rules you’ll use while trading into the New York Stock Exchange. A well-thought-out trading plan defines your approach to trading in the New York Stock Exchange. Also, a properly constructed trading system for entering and exiting the New York Stock Exchange, leaves no room for human judgment. It should be able to respond to any set of circumstances that arise with clear actions.

The importance of this kind of trading plan - your set defined rules for tradng in the New York Stock Exchange, cannot be overstated. Without a consistent set of guiding principles to govern their trading decisions in the New York Stock Exchange, most traders hop from one trade to the next, driven by emotion or hysteria. When you don’t have a plan, you plan to fail.

Try and keep your system simple. Many traders complicate their trading systems with out even trying. They accomplished this by over-optimizing. So many indicators are added to their system that it becomes nearly impossible to trade. Instead, keep your system as simple as possible. This way, it is robust enough to trade across many market conditions.

Once you’ve designed your system follow it perfectly. This requires a great deal of self-disciple, but bear in mind that your will be rewarded with success. Either undisciplined behaviour or ignorance will be punished by the market in the end, coming by way of direct losses or by the loss of profits, you could have made. However, the market is complex, and does not always act as you might expect. There is a principle of random reinforcement that you might encounter. The New York Stock Exchange has a tendency to reward bad behaviour from time to time. This tendency is one of the reasons why it often takes so long to learn how to trade. Keep these principles in mind so that you will not be surprised, but remember there is no point in having a system if you are not going to follow it.

When you are ready to trade, in the New York Stock Exchange, start small. Give your confidence time to grow, and give yourself time learn the intricacies of your system, and your stock picks. There is always a learning curve when you begin trading in the New York Stock Exchange. It makes sense to take the time to learn the ins and outs of the New York Stock Exchange before you start adding more positions.

Now that you’ve started trading, in the New York Stock Exchange, I have one last, crucial piece of advice for you. Follow this rule when you’re trading in the New York Stock Exchange. Despite the fact, everyone knows the old adage of “cut losses short and let profits run”; many traders fail to do this. Have strategies built into your system to ensure that these rules are followed. Adages only become old when they have proven to be effective.

I could go into much more detail on many of these points, but this is only a broad overview of the steps you need to take when you begin trading in the New York Stock Exchange. With commitment, discipline, and careful consideration, soon you will be well on your way to being a successful New York Stock Exchange trader.

Published under category : Stock Basic

Understanding a Stock's PEG Ratio

2006-02-16T19:31:00.000-08:00

by Chris Perruna

A PEG ratio cannot be used alone but is a very powerful tool when integrated with the basics (price, volume and chart reading). You must enjoy crunching numbers and have a calculator handy to estimate your own PEG ratio. Access to quality statistical information from the web such as past earnings and future earning estimates is essential to calculate this fundamental indicator. A variety of websites produce a PEG ratio but I have not found one site that has a reliable PEG ratio that I can use for my own research, so I calculate it myself, ensuring accuracy with the final number.

I am going to use the definition from investopedia.com as it makes complete sense and doesn’t get too confusing (below the definition is further explanation and a current real time example, using Apple Computer).:

The PEG Ratio: “The PEG ratio compares a stock's price/earnings ("P/E") ratio to its expected EPS growth rate. If the PEG ratio is equal to one, it means that the market is pricing the stock to fully reflect the stock's EPS growth. This is "normal" in theory because, in a rational and efficient market, the P/E is supposed to reflect a stock's future earnings growth.

If the PEG ratio is greater than one, it indicates that the stock is possibly overvalued or that the market expects future EPS growth to be greater than what is currently in the Street consensus number. Growth stocks typically have a PEG ratio greater than one because investors are willing to pay more for a stock that is expected to grow rapidly (otherwise known as "growth at any price"). It could also be that the earnings forecasts have been lowered while the stock price remains relatively stable for other reasons.

If the PEG ratio is less than one, it is a sign of a possibly undervalued stock or that the market does not expect the company to achieve the earnings growth that is reflected in the Street estimates. Value stocks usually have a PEG ratio less than one because the stock's earnings expectations have risen and the market has not yet recognized the growth potential. On the other hand, it could also indicate that earnings expectations have fallen faster than the Street could issue new forecasts.” - provided by www.Investopedia.com

PEG Ratio Example: Using Apple Computer Inc., I will demonstrate how to calculate the PEG ratio without relying on other websites.

First, you will need to gather the past earnings numbers; going back at least 2 years and going forward two years. (All data is from Thursday, June 23, 2005)

AAPL:
2003: 0.09
2004: 0.36
2005: 1.31 (E)
2006: 1.52 (E)

Now we need to calculate the growth from year to year.
Subtract the earnings of 2004 by 2003 and then divide by 2003.
Repeat the process to determine the growth rate for the following years:

2004: (0.36-0.09)/0.09 x 100 = 300% growth rate

2005: (1.31-0.36)/0.36 x 100 = 264% growth rate

2006: (1.52-1.31)/1.31 x 100 = 16% growth rate

Now, take the current price (we will use the close from Thursday, June 23, 2005: $38.89) and divide it by 2004 earnings and then by the 2004 growth rate:

2004: 38.89/ 0.36 / 300 = .36 PEG Ratio
2005: 38.89/ 1.31 / 264 = .11 PEG Ratio
2006: 38.89/ 1.52 / 16 = 1.59 PEG Ratio

Using the definition from above, Investopedia states that a stock is evenly valued at a PEG ratio of 1 in a rational and efficient market. Please note that the stock market is not very rational or efficient so we only use this number as a secondary indicator and tool, after our fundamental and technical analysis is complete. Apple’s PEG Ratio of 0.11 for 2005 was discounted into the price when these estimates first hit the street, giving us the big run-up late last year. Going forward, the stock’s earning potential looks to slow considerably and the PEG ratio clearly shows us the tremendous jump in numbers from 2005 to 2006. A PEG ratio of 1.59 for 2006 is not the best rating going forward but still under the red flag ratio of 2.00.

Finally, once you determine the PEG ratio of the stock you are looking to buy, take the time to calculate the PEG ratio for the “sister stocks” in the industry group to see if they have higher or lower PEG ratios. Keep in mind, PEG ratios don’t work for companies with negative or non-existent earnings numbers.

Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com

Forces that Move Stock Prices

2006-02-15T22:00:00.000-08:00

by James Andrews

Among the largest forces that affect stock prices are inflation, interest rates, bonds, commodities and currencies. At times the stock market suddenly reverses itself followed typically by published explanations phrased to suggest that the writer’s keen observation allowed him to predict the market turn. Such circumstances leave investors somewhat awed and amazed at the infinite amount of continuing factual input and infallible interpretation needed to avoid going against the market. While there are continuing sources of input that one needs in order to invest successfully in the stock market, they are finite. If you contact me at my web site, I’ll be glad to share some with you. What is more important though is to have a robust model for interpreting any new information that comes along. The model should take into account human nature, as well as, major market forces. The following is a personal working cyclical model that is neither perfect nor comprehensive. It is simply a lens through which sector rotation, industry behavior and changing market sentiment can be viewed.

As always, any understanding of markets begins with the familiar human traits of greed and fear along with perceptions of supply, demand, risk and value. The emphasis is on perceptions where group and individual perceptions usually differ. Investors can be depended upon to seek the largest return for the least amount of risk. Markets, representing group behavior, can be depended upon to over react to almost any new information. The subsequent price rebound or relaxation makes it appear that initial responses are much to do about nothing. But no, group perceptions simply oscillate between extremes and prices follow. It is clear that the general market, as reflected in the major averages, impacts more than half of a stock’s price, while earnings account for most of the rest.

With this in mind, stock prices should rise with falling interest rates because it becomes cheaper for companies to finance projects and operations that are funded through borrowing. Lower borrowing costs allow higher earnings which increase the perceived value of a stock. In a low interest rate environment, companies can borrow by issuing corporate bonds, offering rates slightly above the average Treasury rate without incurring excessive borrowing costs. Existing bond holders hang on to their bonds in a falling interest rate environment because the rate of return they are receiving exceeds anything being offered in newly issued bonds. Stocks, commodities and existing bond prices tend to rise in a falling interest rate environment. Borrowing rates, including mortgages, are closely tied to the 10 year Treasury interest rate. When rates are low, borrowing increases, effectively putting more money into circulation with more dollars chasing after a relatively fixed quantity of stocks, bonds and commodities.

Bond traders continually compare interest rate yields for bonds with those for stocks. Stock yield is computed from the reciprocal P/E ratio of a stock. Earnings divided by price gives earning yield. The assumption here is that the price of a stock will move to reflect its earnings. If stock yields for the S&P 500 as a whole are the same as bond yields, investors prefer the safety of bonds. Bond prices then rise and stock prices decline as a result of money movement. As bond prices trade higher, due to their popularity, the effective yield for a given bond will decrease because its face value at maturity is fixed. As effective bond yields decline further, bond prices top out and stocks begin to look more attractive, although at a higher risk. There is a natural oscillatory inverse relationship between stock prices and bond prices. In a rising stock market, equilibrium has been reached when stock yields appear higher than corporate bond yields which are higher than Treasury bond yields which are higher than savings account rates. Longer term interest rates are naturally higher than short term rates.

That is, until the introduction of higher prices and inflation. Having an increased supply of money in circulation in the economy, due to increased borrowing under low interest rate incentives, causes commodity prices to rise. Commodity price changes permeate throughout the economy to affect all hard goods. The Federal Reserve, seeing higher inflation, raises interest rates to remove excess money from circulation to hopefully reduce prices once again. Borrowing costs rise, making it more difficult for companies to raise capital. Stock investors, perceiving the effects of higher interest rates on company profits, begin to lower their expectations of earnings and stock prices fall.

Long term bond holders keep an eye on inflation because the real rate of return on a bond is equal to the bond yield minus the expected rate of inflation. Therefore, rising inflation makes previously issued bonds less attractive. The Treasury Department has to then increase the coupon or interest rate on newly issued bonds in order to make them attractive to new bond investors. With higher rates on newly issued bonds, the price of existing fixed coupon bonds falls, causing their effective interest rates to increase, as well. So both stock and bond prices fall in an inflationary environment, mostly because of the anticipated rise in interest rates. Domestic stock investors and existing bond holders find rising interest rates bearish. Fixed return investments are most attractive when interest rates are falling.

In addition to having too many dollars in circulation, inflation can also be increased by a drop in the value of the dollar in foreign exchange markets. The cause of the dollar’s recent drop is perceptions of its decreased value due to continuing national deficits and trade imbalances. Foreign goods, as a result, can become more expensive. This would make US products more attractive abroad and improve the US trade balance. However, if before that happens, foreign investors are perceived as finding US dollar investments less attractive, putting less money into the US stock market, a liquidity problem can result in falling stock prices. Political turmoil and uncertainty can also cause the value of currencies to decrease and the value of hard commodities to increase. Commodity stocks do quite well in this environment.

The Federal Reserve is seen as a gate keeper who walks a fine line. It may raise interest rates, not only to prevent inflation, but also to make US investments remain attractive to foreign investors. This particularly applies to foreign central banks who buy huge quantities of Treasuries. Concern about rising rates makes both stock and bond holders uneasy for the above stated reasons and stock holders for yet another reason. If rising interest rates take too many dollars out of circulation, it can cause deflation. Companies are then unable to sell products at any price and prices fall dramatically. The resulting effect on stocks is negative in a deflationary environment due to a simple lack of liquidity.

In summary, in order for stock prices to move smoothly, perceptions of inflation and deflation must be in balance. A disturbance in that balance is usually seen as a change in interest rates and the foreign exchange rate. Stock and bond prices normally oscillate in opposite directions due to differences in risk and the changing balance between bond yields and apparent stock yields. When we find them moving in the same direction, it means a major change is taking place in the economy. A falling US dollar raises fears of higher interest rates which impacts stock and bond prices negatively. The relative sizes of market capitalization and daily trading help explain why bonds and currencies have such a large impact on stock prices. First, let’s consider total capitalization. Three years ago the bond market was from 1.5 to 2 times larger than the stock market. With regard to trading volume, the daily trading ratio of currencies, Treasuries and stocks was then 30:7:1, respectively.

About author:
James A. Andrews publishes the Wiser Trader Stocks and Options Newsletter. Site contact, http://www.WiserTrader.com. © 2004

Published under category : Stock Fundamental Analysis

Stock Fundamental Analysis Basics

2006-02-15T15:25:00.000-08:00

by Mostafa Soleimanzadeh

Fundamental Analysis Definition

Fundamental analysis is a stock valuation method that uses financial and economic analysis to predict the movement of stock prices.

The fundamental information that is analyzed can include a company's financial reports, and non-finanical information such as estimates of the growth of demand for competing products, industry comparisons, and economy-wide changes.

Fundamentalists General Strategy

To a fundamentalist, the market price of a stock tends to move towards its intrinsic value. If the intrinsic value of a stock is above the current market price, the investor would purchase the stock, and if the intrinsic value of a stock was below the market price, the investor would sell the stock.

To start a fundamentalist makes an examination of the current and future overall health of the economy as a whole. In this step you should attempt to determine the direction and level of interest rates.

After you analyzed the overall economy then analyze firms individually. You should analyze factors that give the firm a competitive advantage in its sector such as management experience, history of performance, growth potential, low cost producer, and etc.

Fundamental Analysis Expressions

For beginning I describe some stock fundamental analysis expressions that are more important:

#1- EPS: (Earnings Per Share)

The portion of a company's profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. The amount is computed by dividing net earnings by the number of outstanding shares of common stock. For example, a corporation that earned $10 million last year and has 10 million shares outstanding would report earnings per share of $1.

#2- P/E Ratio: (Price/ EPS)

Also called its "earnings multiple", Price of a stock divided by its earnings per share. The P/E ratio may either use the reported earnings from the latest year or employ an analyst's forecast of next year's earnings. P/E gives investors an idea of how much they are paying for a company's earning power.

An important notice here is that the P/E ratio is ultimately not an objective measure; a high P/E ratio might show an overvalued stock, or it might reflect a company with high potential for growth.

#3- Dividend

Dividend is an amount of the profits that a company pays to people who own shares in the company. When a company earns a profit, some of this money is typically reinvested in the business and called retained earnings, and some of it can be paid to its shareholders as a dividend.

By Mostafa Soleimanzadeh. Stock Market Tips, Learn Stock Market Technical Analysis and Stock Fundamental Analysis in his website.

Published under category : Stock Fundamental Analysis

Stock Market Trading Styles Defined

2006-02-14T15:14:00.000-08:00

by Jason Ng

Have you ever heard of the terms Scalping, Swing Trading, Trend Trading and Momentum Trading? Wonder if you are any of them? Wondering what suits you? Here's a quick definition.

The different forms of trading are actually better differentiated by time frame more than the techniques that are involved. Because of the difference in time frame, different techniques must be used in order to reap profits from the capital markets.

From the shortest holding period to the longest, we have Scalping, Momentum Trading, Swing Trading and lastly, Trend Trading.

Scalping is a term used for a method where trades are opened and closed within a very short time scale, perhaps anything from a second or two to a few minutes. This is a day trading method where Scalpers make several, perhaps hundreds of trades a day, accruing small profits intraday for an overall daily return.

Momentum trading is another day trading method where the trader sees an acceleration in a stock's price, earnings, or revenues and takes a long or short position in the stock with the hope that its momentum will continue in either an upwards or downwards direction. Once momentum slows down or falls, the trade is exited. The holding period is commonly from a few hours up to a whole day.

Swing Trading is a style of trading that attempts to capture gains in a stock within one to four days. This is mainly used by private, at home traders. The individual trader is able to exploit the short-term stock movements without the competition of major traders. Swing traders use technical analysis to look for stocks with short-term price momentum. These traders aren't interested in the fundamental or intrinsic value of stocks but rather in their price trends and patterns.

Trend Trading is a trading strategy where traders commonly hold their positions for up to a month. It is a trading strategy that attempts to capture gains through the analysis of an asset's momentum in a particular direction. The trend trader enters into a long position when a stock is trending upward (successively higher highs). Conversely, a short position is taken when the stock is in a down trend (successively lower highs).

All in all, Swing Trading and Trend Trading seems like the way to go for most private traders who has a day job or who cannot afford to day trade the market.

Author`s note:
I too am a Swing Trader and have enjoyed tremendous success for the past few years using what I call the Star Trading System. Visit my site for more information

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Good to Know Stock Trading Information

2006-02-12T08:37:00.000-08:00

by Ispas Marin

Stock trading is a complex process that may be quite confusing and deceitful to a new trader. Therefore, if you plan to start investing your money in shares, you should first choose a stock trading strategy that is most suitable for yourself.

The major difference between stock trading strategies is based on timeframe. It means that an active day investor will act and react differently than a long term trader. Any stock trading strategy has its own pros and cons so analyse them carefully before starting investing your savings in stock shares.

The day trader is an active player; he is always buying and selling shares inside the timeframe of a day. This kind of stock trading has to advantage of saving you the trouble of facing any overnight risk. If a share's price is experiencing a sudden rise or drop, he can immediately take advantage of the situation. A day trader is usually targeting to get quick profits while facing small risks. The bad thing about this type of stock trading system is that it is very time consuming, you have to be permanently alert and focused on the stock trends. But the trading costs represent the worst thing. The commission tends to be very large when you sell and buy several times a day.

The swing trader is an investor who is focusing on longer periods of trading, meaning a few days or even weeks. This method has the advantage of having few commissions to be paid and the opportunity to experience some important changes in share's price. The main downside of this method is its higher risk due to the longer trading period.

The long term swing trader is an investor much alike the swing trader above. The difference between these two is the longer period of time, several weeks, he is targeting. This method has a good aspect: the long term swing trader is avoiding the inconvenience of being affected by minor trading swings. And the profit is bigger; experienced traders target even a 50% profit using this method.

But bigger profit brings bigger risks; you will be trading over a longer period of time, therefore you will be exposed to bigger trading risks. And it is likely for you to miss many short-term trend changes.

The buy and hold trader is the investor who is buying stocks and hold them for a very long period of time, even for years.

This type of stock trading can bring you a very good profit with a small effort. But be careful when you choose to use this method as it may turn against you if you don't have a good, strong investment strategy. This means that the secret to earn money out of this method is not just holding to the stock and hope for the best, but to analyse the stock trend, the market evolution and to set a profit target.

In conclusion, there are methods of stock trading for any type of person. You just have to analyse every type of method and use the one it represents you best. And remember that making profit on the stock market requires brains, instinct and luck!

For a Stock Trading system and investment strategy that is simple and easy to follow just visit www.mytradingsystem.net Portfolio management strategies that work in all types of stock market.

Published under category : Stock Trading Strategy

Day Trading - Moving Averages vs Support and Resistance

2006-02-10T10:08:00.000-08:00

by Mike Reed

When day trading the SP and Nasdaq futures, do you rely on your moving averages more than your support & resistant areas?

During the first hour of trading, the support and resistance zones on the SP and Nasdaq futures are the most important things to watch. The moving averages have not yet had a chance to come into play.

After that, if a trend is developing I watch several key exponential and simple moving averages on the 2 minute, the 5 minute and the 13 minute SP and Nasdaq futures charts.

These specific moving averages give reliable support and resistance for the market as long as the slope of the moving averages are fairly steep, indicating a trend. When there is no trend, the moving averages are flat and pretty much worthless.

When a trending market makes a countertrend move, and hits a key moving average on two or more different time frames at the same time, the probability of a good trade setup increases dramatically. If you get three hits at the same time, it’s even better. Sometimes you’ll see one key moving average get hit on the five minute SP chart at the same time another moving average is hit on the 13 minute Nasdaq chart. This also gives a good trade setup.

Eventually, a trending market will reach the next major support or resistance zone. At that point the zones once again become more important than the moving averages.

In afternoon trading, the market has often broken through a support or resistance zone several times. In that case, the zone is no longer useful, and new areas of support and resistance can usually be found. When I find them, I send my subscribers an RBI Intraday Update with the new support or resistance areas, and a description of what I think the market will do if it moves above or below them.

About author:
Mike Reed is author of TradeStalker's RBI Trader's Updates. He has been trading the Market for 23 years. His support and resistance numbers have been published on the internet since 1996. Mike's nightly support and resistance zones are specific and incredibly accurate. He offers an unlimited free trial of his nightly TradeStalker RBI Trader's Updates. www.TradeStalker.com

Published under category : Stock Technical Analysis

Stock Trading: Why Averaging Down is a Losing Proposition

2006-02-09T08:07:00.000-08:00

by Andy Swan

Many traders, especially those new to the markets, have a habit of "averaging in" to trades that aren`t going their way. The following reasoning is used: If this trade was a good entry at my earlier price, then it must be an even better entry now! On top of that, the trader gets caught up in the idea of improving his "average entry price."

Unfortunately most traders learn the hard way that this logic simply does not hold up. This is a natural response that everyone has, which is exactly why it doesn`t work in a market. The reasoning that "this trade was good then so at this price it must be even better" is based on the flawed assumption that the first entry price was a good one.

Pride tries to keep us from realizing that the very fact that the position is a loser right now is PROOF that the first entry was NOT a good entry (at least not yet). In fact, the stock or option has moved in the opposite direction the trader thought it was going to move, indicating that either the analysis/reasoning used to take the position in the first place was incorrect or at the very least the reasoning has been weakened by the market action since the position was established. This does NOT mean that the trade is no longer a good one just because you did not make your initial entry at the perfect moment (who does?) -- it just means that you probably shouldn`t be willing to put more capital at risk now that it has started to prove you wrong.

The other part of the reasoning, that "this will improve my average entry" is simply a mathematical illusion.

By "averaging in", you don`t just move your entry closer to the current price (the part Pride makes us focus on), you also double your losing position (the part we don`t want to see). Instead of 1000 losing shares at 10.25 you now own 2000 losing shares at 10.00 -- BIG DEAL -- you are still down $500 because the stock price is still at $9.75 and now you own 1000 extra shares of a stock that is in a downtrend instead of the uptrend you predicted!

Don`t get me wrong, it is not always a mistake to increase your position on a losing trade -- some circumstances (such as the stock sitting right at a very strong resistance or support level) warrant it. If you absolutely must add to a losing position, always do so with the conviction necessary to exit the ENTIRE position quickly should the trade move against you (through that critical support level you saw, etc.) from there.

On the flip side of the coin is the exact opposite reasoning and the exact opposite results over time. Adding to winning positions is a practice rarely done by even the most experienced traders, but one that can lead to increased profitability over time. This is exactly the strategy that our Day Trading Systems have used successfully since 2000. The next few times you hear pride telling you to "lock in your profits", double your position and set a stop at your new "average entry". After 5-10 of these trades you will be surprised at what a profitable (and a confidence building) method this can be.

Once again, traders who ignore pride and trade the opposite of emotion will reap extra profits and a much more pleasurable trading experience. DON`T MISUNDERSTAND ME -- you will not profit more every time you add to a winner and you won`t lose every time you add to a loser -- I am talking about trading strategies to work OVER TIME -- anything can happen in the window of a few trades.

Andy Swan is co-founder and head of trading at DaytradeTeam.com

Published under category : Stock Trading

Bid, Ask, and Size

2006-02-07T15:08:00.000-08:00

by Larry Potter

When you enter an order to buy or sell a stock, you see the bid and ask for a stock and some numbers. What are the bid and ask, and what do those numbers mean? One, the bid, is what you need to know when you are selling a stock. The other, the ask (or offer) is what you need to know when you're buying. But you also need to know those numbers. Here's how it works:

If an investor looks at a computer screen for a quote on the stock of XYZ, it might look something like this: Last: Bid: 20 Ask: 20 1/4 BSize: 12 ASize: 5. The translation: the stock of XYZ is being bid at $20 a share and offered at $20 1/4 per share. There are 1200 shares bid for and 500 shares offered. If you are looking to sell stock, now you know there is a firm willing to pay (that's the bid side of the market) $20 for your stock, and that you could sell at least 1200 shares of stock at that price. Those are the two parts of the bid side of a market on a stock: the price and the quantity of shares at that price.

If you are looking to buy XYZ stock, you would have to pay $20.25 and could buy at least 500 shares of stock. Again, there are two parts to the ask side of the market: the price at which you can buy stock and the amount of stock you can buy.

When you look at a quote for a stock, it's only good for the time at which you check it. The bid and ask and the sizes for each side change constantly. If you were to check back in two minutes and you'd like to sell your XYZ at $20, the $20 bid may not be there because the stock may have moved up or down in that time frame. So each time you trade, you'll need to check the bid and ask to see where your particular stock is trading.

Whenever you enter an online trade, a "live" quote will be shown so you'll know where the stock is trading and what to expect if you buy or sell your stock. However, be aware that the stock can move very fast and that you may not get the price shown on your screen. That's because by the time your order is sent to the floor to be executed, the bid and ask may have changed because there was an order that came in ahead of yours and wiped out the bid or offer. Then the stock moves to a new level and the bid and ask will be different from what your screen showed when you entered the order. This doesn't happen very often, but it does happen. And when investors enter their market orders (meaning they will buy or sell stock at the market, no matter where the market for the stock is), look at the bid or ask, and then see their execution price is different from the stock prices they saw, they have to realize that stocks can be very dynamic, sometimes changing just as their orders are entered.

Another bit of jargon: the words ask and offer are the same thing. This is the side of the market where investors can buy stock. So when you hear: Where's the stock offered? Or what's the "ask" on the stock? They're both asking the same thing.

The size of the market can help you decide on the timing of your purchase or the price. For example, if good old XYZ is trading at $20, and the bid size for the stock is 200 and the offer size is 5, that means there are 20,000 shares bid for and only 500 for sale (when you see the amount of stock bid for or offered, just multiply it by 100 for the actual amount of stock. If you see 999, that means there are at least 100,000 shares). If you're looking to buy the stock, you might want to get your order in quickly because if the buyer of the 20,000 shares gets excited and starts to buy all the stock around, no matter what the price, it will push up the price. On the other side of the trade, if you are a seller, you may want to wait a little while because that kind of size to buy suggests that maybe the price will be moving up if the buyer doesn't have patience and wants that XYZ stock NOW.

Of course, the buyer may not move from the $20 price, or may find another stock that is more attractive and buy that one instead. So you can't know with certainty what will happen with the stock's price. But then, except for death and taxes, certainty just isn't part of life or investing.

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Published under category : Stock Basic